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Net Zero The UK's Contribution to Stopping Global Warming
May 2019
Publication
This report responds to a request from the Governments of the UK Wales and Scotland asking the Committee to reassess the UK’s long-term emissions targets. Our new emissions scenarios draw on ten new research projects three expert advisory groups and reviews of the work of the IPCC and others.<br/>The conclusions are supported by detailed analysis published in the Net Zero Technical Report that has been carried out for each sector of the economy plus consideration of F-gas emissions and greenhouse gas removals.
Committee for Climate Change Fifth Carbon Budget: Central Scenario Data
Jul 2016
Publication
This spreadsheet contains data for two future UK scenarios: a "baseline" (i.e. no climate action after 2008 the start of the carbon budget system) and the "central" scenario underpinning the CCC's advice on the fifth carbon budget (the limit to domestic emissions during the period 2028-32).<br/>The central scenario is an assessment of the technologies and behaviours that would prepare for the 2050 target cost-effectively while meeting the other criteria in the Climate Change Act (2008) based on central views of technology costs fuel prices carbon prices and feasibility. It is not prescriptive nor is it the only scenario considered for meeting the carbon budgets. For further details on our scenarios and how they were generated see the CCC report Sectoral scenarios for the Fifth Carbon Budget. The scenario was constructed for the CCC's November 2015 report and has not been further updated for example to reflect outturn data for 2015 or changes to Government policy.
The Fourth Carbon Budget Review – Part 2 The Cost-effective Path to the 2050 Target
Nov 2013
Publication
This is the second document of a two-part review of the Fourth Carbon Budget which covers 2023 to 2027. The Fourth Carbon Budget agreed by the Government in June 2011 was scheduled to be reviewed in 2014. The first part of the review is available here: The Fourth Carbon Budget Review – part 1: assessment of climate risk and the international response (November 2013).<br/>According to the Climate Change Act 2008 carbon budgets can only be altered if there is a significant change in circumstances upon which the budget was set. Any such change in circumstances must be demonstrated through evidence and analysis.<br/>The Fourth Carbon Budget Review – part 2 considers the impacts of meeting the 2023-2027 budget. The review concludes that the impacts are small and manageable and identifies broader benefits associated with meeting the fourth carbon budget including: improved energy security improved air quality and reduced noise pollution.
Hydrogen as a Clean and Sustainable Energy Vector for Global Transition from Fossil-Based to Zero-Carbon
Dec 2021
Publication
Hydrogen is recognized as a promising and attractive energy carrier to decarbonize the sectors responsible for global warming such as electricity production industry and transportation. However although hydrogen releases only water as a result of its reaction with oxygen through a fuel cell the hydrogen production pathway is currently a challenging issue since hydrogen is produced mainly from thermochemical processes (natural gas reforming coal gasification). On the other hand hydrogen production through water electrolysis has attracted a lot of attention as a means to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by using low-carbon sources such as renewable energy (solar wind hydro) and nuclear energy. In this context by providing an environmentally-friendly fuel instead of the currently-used fuels (unleaded petrol gasoline kerosene) hydrogen can be used in various applications such as transportation (aircraft boat vehicle and train) energy storage industry medicine and power-to-gas. This article aims to provide an overview of the main hydrogen applications (including present and future) while examining funding and barriers to building a prosperous future for the nation by addressing all the critical challenges met in all energy sectors.
Meeting Carbon Budgets – Ensuring a Low-carbon Recovery
Jun 2010
Publication
As part of its statutory role the Committee provides annual reports to Parliament on the progress that Government is making in meeting carbon budgets and in reducing emissions of greenhouse gases.<br/>Meeting Carbon Budgets – ensuring a low-carbon recovery is the Committee’s 2nd progress report. Within this report we assess the latest emissions data and determine whether emissions reductions have occurred as a result of the recession or as a result of other external factors. We assess Government’s progress towards achieving emissions reductions in 4 key areas of: Power Buildings and Industry Transport and Agriculture.
The Fifth Carbon Budget: The Next Step Towards a Low-carbon Economy
Nov 2015
Publication
This report sets out our advice on the fifth carbon budget covering the period 2028-2032 as required under Section 4 of the Climate Change Act; the Government will propose draft legislation for the fifth budget in summer 2016.
Paths to Low-cost Hydrogen Energy at a Scale for Transportation Applications in the USA and China via Liquid-hydrogen Distribution Networks
Dec 2019
Publication
The cost of delivered H2 using the liquid-distribution pathway will approach $4.3–8.0/kg in the USA and 26–52 RMB/kg in China by around 2030 assuming large-scale adoption. Historically hydrogen as an industrial gas and a chemical feedstock has enjoyed a long and successful history. However it has been slow to take off as an energy carrier for transportation despite its benefits in energy diversity security and environmental stewardship. A key reason for this lack of progress is that the cost is currently too high to displace petroleum-based fuels. This paper reviews the prospects for hydrogen as an energy carrier for transportation clarifies the current drivers for cost in the USA and China and shows the potential for a liquid-hydrogen supply chain to reduce the costs of delivered H2. Technical and economic trade-offs between individual steps in the supply chain (viz. production transportation refuelling) are examined and used to show that liquid-H2 (LH2) distribution approaches offer a path to reducing the delivery cost of H2 to the point at which it could be competitive with gasoline and diesel fuel.
Public Acceptability of the Use of Hydrogen for Heating and Cooking in the Home: Results from Qualitative and Quantitative Research in UK<br/>Executive Summary
Nov 2018
Publication
This report for the CCC by Madano and Element Energy assesses the public acceptability of two alternative low-carbon technologies for heating the home: hydrogen heating and heat pumps.
These technologies could potentially replace natural gas in many UK households as part of the government’s efforts to decrease carbon emissions in the UK.
The report’s key findings are:
These technologies could potentially replace natural gas in many UK households as part of the government’s efforts to decrease carbon emissions in the UK.
The report’s key findings are:
- carbon emissions reduction is viewed as an important issue but there is limited awareness of the need to decarbonise household heating or the implications of switching over to low-carbon heating technologies
- acceptability of both heating technologies is limited by a lack of perceived tangible consumer benefit which has the potential to drive scepticism towards the switch over more generally
- heating technology preferences are not fixed at this stage although heat pumps appear to be the favoured option in this research studythree overarching factors were identified as influencing preferences for heating technologies.
- perceptions of the negative installation burden
- familiarity with the lived experience of using the technologies for heating
- perceptions of how well the technologies would meet modern heating needs both hydrogen heating and heat pumps face significant challenges to secure public acceptability
An Independent Assessment of the UK’s Clean Growth Strategy: From Ambition to Action
Nov 2018
Publication
This report provides the Committee on Climate Change’s response to the UK Government’s Clean Growth Strategy.
The report finds that:
The report finds that:
- The Government has made a strong commitment to achieving the UK’s climate change targets.
- Policies and proposals set out in the Clean Growth Strategy will need to be firmed up.
- Gaps to meeting the fourth and fifth carbon budgets remain. These gaps must be closed.
- Risks of under-delivery must be addressed and carbon budgets met on time.
Future Regulation of the Gas Grid
Jun 2016
Publication
The CCC has established a variety of viable scenarios in which UK decarbonisation targets can be met. Each has consequences for the way in which the UK’s gas network infrastructure is utilised. This report considers the implications of decarbonisation for the future regulation of the gas grid.<br/>The CCC’s 5th Carbon Budget envisaged different scenarios that would enable the UK to meet its emissions targets for 2050. These scenarios represent holistic analyses based on internally consistent combinations of different technologies which could deliver carbon reductions across different sectors of the economy.<br/>The CCC’s scenarios incorporate projections of the demand for natural gas to 2050. The scenarios imply that the volume of throughput on the gas networks1 and the nature and location of network usage is likely to change significantly to meet emissions targets. They are also characterised by significant uncertainty.<br/>Under some decarbonisation scenarios gas networks could be re-purposed to supply hydrogen instead of natural gas meaning there would be ongoing need for network infrastructure.<br/>In other scenarios gas demand in buildings is largely replaced by electric alternatives meaning portions of the low pressure gas distribution networks could be decommissioned.<br/>Patchwork scenarios are also possible in which there is a mixture of these outcomes across the country.<br/>In this project the CCC wished to assess the potential implications for gas networks under these different demand scenarios; and evaluate the associated challenges for Government and regulatory policy. The challenge for BEIS and Ofgem is how to regulate in a way that keeps options open while uncertainty persists about the best solution for the UK; and at the same time how best to make policy and regulatory decisions which would serve to reduce this uncertainty. Both Government and Ofgem have policy and regulatory levers that they can use – and we identify and evaluate such levers in this report.
The Role of Charging and Refuelling Infrastructure in Supporting Zero-emission Vehicle Sales
Mar 2020
Publication
Widespread uptake of battery electric plug-in hybrid and hydrogen fuel-cell vehicles (collectively zero-emissions vehicles or ZEVs) could help many regions achieve deep greenhouse gas mitigation goals. Using the case of Canada this study investigates the extent to which increasing ZEV charging and refuelling availability may boost ZEV sales relative to other ZEV-supportive policies. We adapt a version of the Respondent-based Preferences and Constraints (REPAC) model using 2017 survey data from 1884 Canadian new vehicle-buyers to simulate the sales impacts of increasing electric vehicle charging access at home work public destinations and on highways as well as increasing hydrogen refuelling station access. REPAC is built from a stated preference choice model and represents constraints in supply and consumer awareness as well as dynamics in ZEV policy out to 2030. Results suggest that new ZEV market share from 2020 to 2030 does not substantially benefit from increased infrastructure. Even when electric charging and hydrogen refuelling access are simulated to reach “universally” available levels by 2030 ZEV sales do not rise by more than 1.5 percentage points above the baseline trajectory. On the other hand REPAC simulates ZEV market share rising as high as 30% by 2030 with strong ZEV-supportive policies even without the addition of charging or refuelling infrastructure. These findings stem from low consumer valuation of infrastructure found in the stated preference model. Results suggest that achieving ambitious ZEV sale targets requires a comprehensive suite of policies beyond a focus on charging and refuelling infrastructure.
Meeting Carbon Budgets – 2014 Progress Report to Parliament
Jul 2014
Publication
This is our sixth statutory report to Parliament on progress towards meeting carbon budgets. In it we consider the latest data on emissions and their drivers. This year the report also includes a full assessment of how the first carbon budget (2008-2012) was met drawing out policy lessons and setting out what is required for the future to stay on track for the legislated carbon budgets and the 2050 target. The report includes assessment at the level of the economy the non-traded and traded sectors the key emitting sectors and the devolved administrations. Whilst the first carbon budget has been met and progress made on development and implementation of some policies the main conclusion is that strengthening of policies will be needed to meet future budgets.
Electric and Hydrogen Buses: Shifting from Conventionally Fuelled Cars in the UK
May 2020
Publication
For the UK to meet their national target of net zero emissions as part of the central Paris Agreement target further emphasis needs to be placed on decarbonizing public transport and moving away from personal transport (conventionally fuelled vehicles (CFVs) and electric vehicles (EVs)). Electric buses (EBs) and hydrogen buses (HBs) have the potential to fulfil requirements if powered from low carbon renewable energy sources.
A comparison of carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions produced from conventionally fuelled buses (CFB) EBs and HBs between 2017 and 2050 under four National Grid electricity scenarios was conducted. In addition emissions per person at different vehicle capacity levels (100% 75% 50% and 25%) were projected for CFBs HBs EBs and personal transport assuming a maximum of 80 passengers per bus and four per personal vehicle.
Results indicated that CFVs produced 30 g CO2km−1 per person compared to 16.3 g CO2 km−1 per person by CFBs by 2050. At 100% capacity under the two-degree scenario CFB emissions were 36 times higher than EBs 9 times higher than HBs and 12 times higher than EVs in 2050. Cumulative emissions under all electricity scenarios remained lower for EBs and HBs.
Policy makers need to focus on encouraging a modal shift from personal transport towards sustainable public transport primarily EBs as the lowest level emitting vehicle type. Simple electrification of personal vehicles will not meet the required targets. Simultaneously CFBs need to be replaced with EBs and HBs if the UK is going to meet emission targets.
A comparison of carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions produced from conventionally fuelled buses (CFB) EBs and HBs between 2017 and 2050 under four National Grid electricity scenarios was conducted. In addition emissions per person at different vehicle capacity levels (100% 75% 50% and 25%) were projected for CFBs HBs EBs and personal transport assuming a maximum of 80 passengers per bus and four per personal vehicle.
Results indicated that CFVs produced 30 g CO2km−1 per person compared to 16.3 g CO2 km−1 per person by CFBs by 2050. At 100% capacity under the two-degree scenario CFB emissions were 36 times higher than EBs 9 times higher than HBs and 12 times higher than EVs in 2050. Cumulative emissions under all electricity scenarios remained lower for EBs and HBs.
Policy makers need to focus on encouraging a modal shift from personal transport towards sustainable public transport primarily EBs as the lowest level emitting vehicle type. Simple electrification of personal vehicles will not meet the required targets. Simultaneously CFBs need to be replaced with EBs and HBs if the UK is going to meet emission targets.
Quantitative Evaluations of Hydrogen Diffusivity in V-X (X = Cr, Al, Pd) Alloy Membranes Based on Hydrogen Chemical Potential
Jan 2021
Publication
Vanadium (V) has higher hydrogen permeability than Pd-based alloy membranes but exhibits poor resistance to hydrogen-induced embrittlement. The alloy elements are added to reduce hydrogen solubility and prevent hydrogen-induced embrittlement. To enhance hydrogen permeability the alloy elements which improve hydrogen diffusivity in V are more suitable. In the present study hydrogen diffusivity in V-Cr V-Al and V-Pd alloy membranes was investigated in view of the hydrogen chemical potential and compared with the previously reported results of V-Fe alloy membranes. The additions of Cr and Fe to V improved the mobility of hydrogen atoms. In contrast those of Al and Pd decreased hydrogen diffusivity. The first principle calculations revealed that the hydrogen atoms cannot occupy the first-nearest neighbour T sites (T1 sites) of Al and Pd in the V crystal lattice. These blocking effects will be a dominant contributor to decreasing hydrogen diffusivity by the additions of Al and Pd. For V-based alloy membranes Fe and Cr are more suitable alloy elements compared with Al and Pd in view of hydrogen diffusivity.
Operation Analysis of Selected Domestic Appliances Supplied with Mixture of Nitrogen-Rich Natural Gas with Hydrogen
Dec 2021
Publication
This is article presents the results of the testing of the addition of a hydrogen-to-nitrogen-rich natural gas of the Lw group and its influence on the operation of selected gas-fired domestic appliances. The tests were performed on appliances used for the preparation of meals and hot water production for hygienic and heating purposes. The characteristics of the tested gas appliances are also presented. The burners and their controllers with which the tested appliances were equipped were adapted for the combustion of Lw natural gas. The tested appliances reflected the most popular designs for domestic gas appliances in their group used both in Poland and in other European countries. The tested appliances were supplied with nitrogen-rich natural gas of the Lw group and a mixture of this gas with hydrogen at 13.2% content. The article presents the approximate percentage compositions of the gases used during the tests and their energy parameters. The research was focused on checking the following operating parameters and the safety of the tested appliances: the rated heat input thermal efficiency combustion quality ignition flame stability and transfer. The article contains an analysis of the test results referring in detail to the issue of decreasing the heat input of the appliances by lowering the energy parameters of the nitrogen-rich natural gas of the Lw group mixture with a hydrogen addition and how it influenced the thermal efficiency achieved by the appliances. The conclusions contain an explanation regarding among other things how the design of an appliance influences the thermal efficiency achieved by it in relation to the heat input decrease. In the conclusions on the basis of the research results answers have been provided to the following questions: (1) Whether the hydrogen addition to the nitrogen-rich natural gas of the Lw group will influence the safe and proper operation of domestic gas appliances; (2) What hydrogen percentage can be added to the nitrogen-rich natural gas of the Lw group in order for the appliances adapted for combusting it to operate safely and effectively without the need for modifying them?
Two-Stage Energy Management Strategies of Sustainable Wind-PV-Hydrogen-Storage Microgrid Based on Receding Horizon Optimization
Apr 2022
Publication
Hydrogen and renewable electricity-based microgrid is considered to be a promising way to reduce carbon emissions promote the consumption of renewable energies and improve the sustainability of the energy system. In view of the fact that the existing day-ahead optimal operation model ignores the uncertainties and fluctuations of renewable energies and loads a two-stage energy management model is proposed for the sustainable wind-PV-hydrogen-storage microgrid based on receding horizon optimization to eliminate the adverse effects of their uncertainties and fluctuations. In the first stage the day-ahead optimization is performed based on the predicted outpower of WT and PV the predicted demands of power and hydrogen loads. In the second stage the intra-day optimization is performed based on the actual data to trace the day-ahead operation schemes. Since the intra-day optimization can update the operation scheme based on the latest data of renewable energies and loads the proposed two-stage management model is effective in eliminating the uncertain factors and maintaining the stability of the whole system. Simulations show that the proposed two-stage energy management model is robust and effective in coordinating the operation of the wind-PV-hydrogen-storage microgrid and eliminating the uncertainties and fluctuations of WT PV and loads. In addition the battery storage can reduce the operation cost alleviate the fluctuations of the exchanged power with the power grid and improve the performance of the energy management model.
Optimized Operation Plan for Hydrogen Refueling Station with On-Site Electrolytic Production
Dec 2022
Publication
The cost reduction of hydrogen refueling stations (HRSs) is very important for the popularization of hydrogen vehicles. This paper proposes an optimized operation algorithm based on hydrogen energy demand estimation for on-site hydrogen refueling stations. Firstly the user’s hydrogen demand was estimated based on the simulation of their hydrogenation behavior. Secondly mixed integer linear programming method was used to optimize the operation of the hydrogen refueling station to minimize the unit hydrogen energy cost by using the peak–valley difference of the electricity price. We then used three typical scenario cases to evaluate the optimized operation method. The results show that the optimized operation method proposed in this paper can effectively reduce the rated configuration of electrolyzer and storage tank for HRS and can significantly reduce the unit hydrogen energy cost considering the construction cost compared with the traditional method. Therefore the optimization operation method of a local hydrogen production and hydrogen refueling station proposed in this paper can reduce the cost of a hydrogen refueling station and accelerate the popularization of hydrogen energy vehicles. Finally the scope of application of the proposed optimization method and the influence of the variation of the electricity price curve and the unit cost of the electrolyzer are discussed.
CFD Computations of Liquid Hydrogen Releases
Sep 2011
Publication
Hydrogen is widely recognized as an attractive energy carrier due to its low-level air pollution and its high mass-related energy density. However its wide flammability range and high burning velocity present a potentially significant hazard. A significant fraction of hydrogen is stored and transported as a cryogenic liquid (liquid hydrogen or LH2) as it requires much less volume compared to gaseous hydrogen. In order to exist as a liquid H2 must be cooled to a very low temperature 20.28 K. LH2 is a common liquid fuel for rocket applications. It can also be used as the fuel storage in an internal combustion engine or fuel cell for transport applications. Models for handling liquid releases both two-phase flashing jets and pool spills have been developed in the CFD-model FLACS. The very low normal boiling point of hydrogen (20 K) leads to particular challenges as this is significantly lower than the boiling points of oxygen (90 K) and nitrogen (77 K). Therefore a release of LH2 in the atmosphere may induce partial condensation or even freezing of the oxygen and nitrogen present in the air. A pool model within the CFD software FLACS is used to compute the spreading and vaporization of the liquid hydrogen depositing on the ground where the partial condensation or freezing of the oxygen and nitrogen is also taken into account. In our computations of two-phase jets the dispersed and continuous phases are assumed to be in thermodynamic and kinematic equilibrium. Simulations with the new models are compared against selected experiments performed at the Health and Safety Laboratory (HSL).
Renewable Hydrogen Production from Butanol: A Review
Dec 2017
Publication
Hydrogen production from butanol is a promising alternative when it is obtained from bio-butanol or bio-oil due to the higher hydrogen content compared to other oxygenates such as methanol ethanol or propanol. Catalysts and operating conditions play a crucial role in hydrogen production. Ni and Rh are metals mainly used for butanol steam reforming oxidative steam reforming and partial oxidation. Additives such as Cu can improve catalytic activity in many folds. Moreover support–metal interaction and catalyst preparation technique also play a decisive role in the stability and hydrogen production capacity of catalyst. Steam reforming technique as an option is more frequently researched due to higher hydrogen production capability in comparison to other thermochemical techniques despite its endothermic nature. The use of the oxidative steam reforming and partial oxidation has the advantages of requiring less energy and longer stability of catalysts. However the hydrogen yield is less. This article brings together and examines the latest research on hydrogen production from butanol via steam reforming oxidative steam reforming and partial oxidation reactions. In addition the review examines a few thermodynamic studies based on sorption-enhanced steam reforming and dry reforming where there is potential for hydrogen extraction.
Hydrogen Onboard Storage: An Insertion of the Probabilistic Approach Into Standards & Regulations?
Sep 2005
Publication
The growing attention being paid by car manufacturers and the general public to hydrogen as a middle and long term energy carrier for automotive purpose is giving rise to lively discussions on the advantages and disadvantages of this technology – also with respect to safety. In this connection the focus is increasingly and justifiably so on the possibilities offered by a probabilistic approach to loads and component characteristics: a lower weight obliged with a higher safety level basics for an open minded risk communication the possibility of a provident risk management the conservation of resources and a better and not misleading understanding of deterministic results. But in the case of adequate measures of standards or regulations completion there is a high potential of additional degrees of freedom for the designers obliged with a further increasing safety level. For this purpose what follows deals briefly with the terminological basis and the aspects of acceptance control conservation of resources misinterpretation of deterministic results and the application of regulations/standards.<br/>This leads into the initial steps of standards improvement which can be taken with relatively simple means in the direction of comprehensively risk-oriented protection goal specifications. By this it’s not focused on to provide to much technical details. It’s focused on the context of different views on probabilistic risk assessment. As main result some aspects of the motivation and necessity for the currently running pre-normative research studies within the 6th frame-work program of the EU will be shown.
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