Publications
Lessons Learned from Australian Infrastructure Upgrades
Feb 2020
Publication
This report fulfils Deliverable Five for Research Project 2.1-01 of the Future Fuels CRC. The aims of this project Crystallising lessons learned from major infrastructure upgrades are to provide a report on lessons learned from earlier infrastructure upgrades and fuel transitions and identify tools that can be used to develop consistent messaging around the proposed transition to hydrogen and/or other low-carbon fuels. In both the report and the toolkit there are recommendations on how to apply lessons learned and shape messaging throughout the value chain based on prior infrastructure upgrades.
This report presents three Australian case studies that that are relevant to the development of future fuels: the transition from town gas to natural gas the use of ethanol and LPG as motor fuels and the development of coal seam gas resources. Drawing on published information each case study provides an account of the issues that arose during the upgrade or transition and of the approaches through which industry and government stakeholders managed these issues. From these accounts lessons are identified that can guide stakeholder engagement in future infrastructure upgrades and fuel transitions. The findings from the case studies and academic literature have been used to develop an accompanying draft toolkit for use by FFCRC stakeholders.
The report also distils applicable lessons and frameworks from academic literature about stakeholder analysis megaprojects and the social acceptance of industries and technologies. This report is meant to be used in conjunction with a companion toolkit that provides a framework for making coordinated decisions across the fuel value chain.
You can read the full report on the Future Fuels CRC website here
This report presents three Australian case studies that that are relevant to the development of future fuels: the transition from town gas to natural gas the use of ethanol and LPG as motor fuels and the development of coal seam gas resources. Drawing on published information each case study provides an account of the issues that arose during the upgrade or transition and of the approaches through which industry and government stakeholders managed these issues. From these accounts lessons are identified that can guide stakeholder engagement in future infrastructure upgrades and fuel transitions. The findings from the case studies and academic literature have been used to develop an accompanying draft toolkit for use by FFCRC stakeholders.
The report also distils applicable lessons and frameworks from academic literature about stakeholder analysis megaprojects and the social acceptance of industries and technologies. This report is meant to be used in conjunction with a companion toolkit that provides a framework for making coordinated decisions across the fuel value chain.
You can read the full report on the Future Fuels CRC website here
Effect of α′ Martensite Content Induced by Tensile Plastic Prestrain on Hydrogen Transport and Hydrogen Embrittlement of 304L Austenitic Stainless Steel
Aug 2018
Publication
Effects of microstructural changes induced by prestraining on hydrogen transport and hydrogen embrittlement (HE) of austenitic stainless steels were studied by hydrogen precharging and tensile testing. Prestrains higher than 20% at 20 °C significantly enhance the HE of 304L steel as they induce severe α′ martensite transformation accelerating hydrogen transport and hydrogen entry during subsequent hydrogen exposure. In contrast 304L steel prestrained at 50 and 80 °C and 316L steel prestrained at 20 °C exhibit less HE due to less α′ after prestraining. The increase of dislocations after prestraining has a negligible influence on apparent hydrogen diffusivity compared with pre-existing α′. The deformation twins in heavily prestrained 304L steel can modify HE mechanism by assisting intergranular (IG) fracture. Regardless of temperature and prestrain level HE and apparent diffusivity ( Dapp ) increase monotonously with α′ volume fraction ( fα′ ). Dapp can be described as log Dapp=log(Dα′sα′/sγ)+log[fα′/(1−fα′)] for 10%<fα′<90% with Dα′ is diffusivity in α′ sα′ and sγ are solubility in α′ and austenite respectively. The two equations can also be applied to these more typical duplex materials containing both BCC and FCC phases.
Unpacking Leadership-driven Global Scenarios Towards the Paris Agreement: Report Prepared for the UK Committee on Climate Change
Dec 2020
Publication
Outline
This independent report by Vivid Economics and University College London was commissioned to support the Climate Change Committee’s (CCC) 2020 report The Sixth Carbon Budget -The path to Net Zero. This research provided supporting information for Chapter 7 of the CCC’s report which considered the UK’s contribution to the global goals of the Paris Agreement.
Key recommendations
The report models ‘leadership-driven’ global scenarios that could reduce global emissions rapidly to Net Zero and analyses the levers available to developed countries such as the UK to help accelerate various key aspects of the required global transition.
It highlights a set of opportunities for the UK alongside other developed countries to help assist global decarbonisation efforts alongside achieving it’s domestic emissions reduction targets
This independent report by Vivid Economics and University College London was commissioned to support the Climate Change Committee’s (CCC) 2020 report The Sixth Carbon Budget -The path to Net Zero. This research provided supporting information for Chapter 7 of the CCC’s report which considered the UK’s contribution to the global goals of the Paris Agreement.
Key recommendations
The report models ‘leadership-driven’ global scenarios that could reduce global emissions rapidly to Net Zero and analyses the levers available to developed countries such as the UK to help accelerate various key aspects of the required global transition.
It highlights a set of opportunities for the UK alongside other developed countries to help assist global decarbonisation efforts alongside achieving it’s domestic emissions reduction targets
A Battery-Free Sustainable Powertrain Solution for Hydrogen Fuel Cell City Transit Bus Application
Apr 2022
Publication
The paper presents a sustainable electric powertrain for a transit city bus featuring an electrochemical battery-free power unit consisting of a hydrogen fuel cell stack and a kinetic energy storage system based on high-speed flywheels. A rare-earth free high-efficiency motor technology is adopted to pursue a more sustainable vehicle architecture by limiting the use of critical raw materials. A suitable dynamic energetic model of the full vehicle powertrain has been developed to investigate the feasibility of the traction system and the related energy management control strategy. The model includes losses characterisation as a function of the load of the main components of the powertrain by using experimental tests and literature data. The performance of the proposed solution is evaluated by simulating a vehicle mission on an urban path in real traffic conditions. Considerations about the effectiveness of the traction system are discussed.
Mechanical Properties and Hydrogen Embrittlement of Laser-Surface Melted AISI 430 Ferritic Stainless Steel
Feb 2020
Publication
Hydrogen was doped in austenitic stainless steel (ASS) 316L tensile samples produced by the laser-powder bed fusion (L-PBF) technique. For this aim an electrochemical method was conducted under a high current density of 100 mA/cm2 for three days to examine its sustainability under extreme hydrogen environments at ambient temperatures. The chemical composition of the starting powders contained a high amount of Ni approximately 12.9 wt.% as a strong austenite stabilizer. The tensile tests disclosed that hydrogen charging caused a minor reduction in the elongation to failure (approximately 3.5% on average) and ultimate tensile strength (UTS; approximately 2.1% on average) of the samples using a low strain rate of 1.2 × 10−4 s−1. It was also found that an increase in the strain rate from 1.2 × 10−4 s−1 to 4.8 × 10−4 s−1 led to a reduction of approximately 3.6% on average for the elongation to failure and 1.7% on average for UTS in the pre-charged samples. No trace of martensite was detected in the X-ray diffraction (XRD) analysis of the fractured samples thanks to the high Ni content which caused a minor reduction in UTS × uniform elongation (UE) (GPa%) after the H charging. Considerable surface tearing was observed for the pre-charged sample after the tensile deformation. Additionally some cracks were observed to be independent of the melt pool boundaries indicating that such boundaries cannot necessarily act as a suitable area for the crack propagation.
Property Optimization in As-Quenched Martensitic Steel by Molybdenum and Niobium Alloying
Apr 2018
Publication
Niobium microalloying is the backbone of modern low-carbon high strength low alloy (HSLA) steel metallurgy providing a favorable combination of strength and toughness by pronounced microstructural refinement. Molybdenum alloying is established in medium-carbon quenching and tempering of steel by delivering high hardenability and good tempering resistance. Recent developments of ultra-high strength steel grades such as fully martensitic steel can be optimized by using beneficial metallurgical effects of niobium and molybdenum. The paper details the metallurgical principles of both elements in such steel and the achievable improvement of properties. Particularly the underlying mechanisms of improving toughness and reducing the sensitivity towards hydrogen embrittlement by a suitable combination of molybdenum and niobium alloying will be discussed.
A Comprehensive Comparison of State-of-the-art Manufacturing Methods for Fuel Cell Bipolar Plates Including Anticipated Future Industry Trends
Nov 2020
Publication
This article explains and evaluates contemporary methods for manufacturing bipolar plates (BPPs) for lowtemperature polymer electrolyte membrane fuel cells (LT-PEMFC) and highlights the potential of new improved approaches. BPPs are an essential component of fuel cells responsible for distributing reaction gases to facilitate efficient conversion of gaseous electrochemical energy to electricity. BPPs must balance technical properties such as electrical and thermal conductivities structural strength and corrosion resistance. Graphitic and metallic materials can meet the required specifications with each material offering distinct advantages and disadvantages. Each materials’ performance is complimented by a comparison of its manufacturability including: the material costs production rates and required capital investment. These results are contextualised with respect to the target applications to identify the challenges and advantages of manufacturing methods of choice for BPPs. This analysis shows that the optimal choice of BPP manufacturing method depends entirely on the needs of the target application in particular the relative importance of manufacturing rate cost and the expected operational life of the bipolar plate to the fuel cell designer.
Effect of Deformation Microstructures on Hydrogen Embrittlement Sensitivity and Failure Mechanism of 304 Austenitic Stainless Steel: The Significant Role of Rolling Temperature
Feb 2022
Publication
Metastable austenitic stainless steels (ASSs) have excellent ductility but low strength so that their usage as load-bearing components is significantly limited. Rolling is an effective method of increasing strength whereas the effect of rolling temperature on microstructural evolution the hydrogen embrittlement (HE) sensitivity and fracture mechanisms is still unclear. In present study the effect of cold/warm rolling on detailed microstructural characteristics of 304 ASS was quantitatively investigated and the corresponding HE sensitivity was evaluated via slow strain rate test. The results suggest that cold-rolling led to high strength but poor plasticity and deteriorated HE sensitivity while warm-rolled samples provided combination of high strength and ductility and also superior HE resistance. Compared with 18% α′-martensite in cold -rolled steel warm-rolled specimens consisted of complete austenite less twins and lower dislocation density,moreover the favorable {112} ND and {110} ND textures replaced the harmful {001} ND texture. Based on in-situ EBSD observation during SSRT the HE sensitivity was governed by the combined effect of pre-deformation microstructures and the dynamic microstructural evolution. Advanced method of time-of-flight secondary ion mass spectrometry was used to observe the distribution of hydrogen and the hydrogen content of specimens was determined by the gas chromatograph thermal desorption analysis method. An exceedingly small amount of hydrogen entered the warm-rolled samples while a large amount of hydrogen was trapped at grain boundaries of cold-rolled sample leading to complete intergranular fracture. Therefore warm rolling is an effective pathway for obtaining high combination of strength and ductility together with excellent HE sensitivity.
Hybrid Electric Powertrain with Fuel Cells for a Series Vehicle
May 2018
Publication
Recent environmental and climate change issues make it imperative to persistently approach research into the development of technologies designed to ensure the sustainability of global mobility. At the European Union level the transport sector is responsible for approximately 28% of greenhouse gas emissions and 84% of them are associated with road transport. One of the most effective ways to enhance the de-carbonization process of the transport sector is through the promotion of electric propulsion which involves overcoming barriers related to reduced driving autonomy and the long time required to recharge the batteries. This paper develops and implements a method meant to increase the autonomy and reduce the battery charging time of an electric car to comparable levels of an internal combustion engine vehicle. By doing so the cost of such vehicles is the only remaining significant barrier in the way of a mass spread of electric propulsion. The chosen method is to hybridize the electric powertrain by using an additional source of fuel; hydrogen gas stored in pressurized cylinders is converted in situ into electrical energy by means of a proton exchange membrane fuel cell. The power generated on board can then be used under the command of a dedicated management system for battery charging leading to an increase in the vehicle’s autonomy. Modeling and simulation results served to easily adjust the size of the fuel cell hybrid electric powertrain. After optimization an actual fuel cell was built and implemented on a vehicle that used the body of a Jeep Wrangler from which the thermal engine associated subassemblies and gearbox were removed. Once completed the vehicle was tested in traffic conditions and its functional performance was established.
Developing Community Trust in Hydrogen
Oct 2019
Publication
The report documents current knowledge of the social issues surrounding hydrogen projects. It reviews leading practice stakeholder engagement and communication strategies and findings from focus groups and research activities across Australia.
The full report can be found at this link.
The full report can be found at this link.
Voltammetric and Galvanostatic Methods for Measuring Hydrogen Crossover in Fuel Cell
Dec 2021
Publication
Hydrogen crossover rate is an important indicator for characterizing the membrane degradation and failure in proton exchange membrane fuel cell. Several electrochemical methods have been applied to quantify it. But most of established methods are too rough to support follow-up applications. In this paper a systematic and consistent theoretical foundation for electrochemical measurements of hydrogen crossover is established for the first time. Different electrochemical processes occurring throughout the courses of applying potentiostatic or galvanostatic excitations on fuel cell are clarified and the linear current–voltage behavior observed in the steady-state voltammogram is reinterpreted. On this basis we propose a modified galvanostatic charging method with high practicality to achieve accurate electrochemical measurement of hydrogen crossover and the validity of this method is fully verified. This research provides an explicit framework for implementation of galvanostatic charging method and offers deeper insights into the principles of electrochemical methods for measuring hydrogen crossover.
On the Concept of Micro-fracture Map (MFM) and its Role in Structural Integrity Evaluations in Materials Science and Engineering: A Tribute to Jorge Manrique
Dec 2020
Publication
This paper deals with the concept of micro-fracture map (MFM) and its role in structural integrity evaluations in materials science and engineering on the basis of previous research by the author on notch-induced fracture and hydrogen embrittlement of progressively cold drawn pearlitic steels and 316L austenitic stainless steel. With regard to this some examples are provided of assembly of MFMs in particular situations.
Assessing Uncertainties of Life-Cycle CO2 Emissions Using Hydrogen Energy for Power Generation
Oct 2021
Publication
Hydrogen and its energy carriers such as liquid hydrogen (LH2) methylcyclohexane (MCH) and ammonia (NH3) are essential components of low-carbon energy systems. To utilize hydrogen energy the complete environmental merits of its supply chain should be evaluated. To understand the expected environmental benefit under the uncertainty of hydrogen technology development we conducted life-cycle inventory analysis and calculated CO2 emissions and their uncertainties attributed to the entire supply chain of hydrogen and NH3 power generation (co-firing and mono-firing) in Japan. Hydrogen was assumed to be produced from overseas renewable energy sources with LH2/MCH as the carrier and NH3 from natural gas or renewable energy sources. The Japanese life-cycle inventory database was used to calculate emissions. Monte Carlo simulations were performed to evaluate emission uncertainty and mitigation factors using hydrogen energy. For LH2 CO2 emission uncertainty during hydrogen liquefaction can be reduced by using low-carbon fuel. For MCH CO2 emissions were not significantly affected by power consumption of overseas processes; however it can be reduced by implementing low-carbon fuel and waste-heat utilization during MCH dehydrogenation. Low-carbon NH3 production processes significantly affected power generation whereas carbon capture and storage during NH3 production showed the greatest reduction in CO2 emission. In conclusion reducing CO2 emissions during the production of hydrogen and NH3 is key to realize low-carbon hydrogen energy systems.
Hydrogen Generation by Photocatalytic Reforming of Potential Biofuels: Polyols, Cyclic Alcohols, and Saccharides
Jan 2018
Publication
We have studied hydrogen gas production using photocatalysis from C2-C5 carbon chain polyols cyclic alcohols and mono and di-saccharides using palladium nanoparticles supported on a TiO2 catalyst. For many of the polyols the hydrogen evolution rate is found to be dictated by the number of hydroxyl groups and available a-hydrogens in the structure. However the rule only applies to polyols and cyclic alcohols while the sugar activity is limited by the bulky structure of those molecules. There was also evidence of ring opening in photocatalytic reforming of cyclic alcohols that involved dehydrogenation and decarbonylation of a CC bond.
Transport Pathway to Hydrogen webinar
Mar 2021
Publication
Webinar to accompany the launch of the Cadent Future Role of Gas in Transport report which can be found here
The Effect of Heat Treatments on the Constituent Materials of a Nuclear Reactor Pressure Vessel in Hydrogen Environment
Jul 2016
Publication
A nuclear reactor pressure vessel (NRPV) wall is formed by two layer of different materials: an inner layer of stainless steel (cladding material) and an outer layer of low carbon steel (base material) which is highly susceptible to corrosion related phenomena. A reduction of the mechanical properties of both materials forming the wall would appear due to the action of the harsh environment causing hydrogen embrittlement (HE) related phenomena. As a result of the manufacturing process residual stresses and strains appear in the NRPV wall thereby influencing the main stage in HE: hydrogen diffusion. A common engineering practice for reducing such states is to apply a tempering heat treatment. In this paper a numerical analysis is carried out for revealing the influence of the heat treatment parameters (tempering temperature and tempering time) on the HE of a commonly used NRPV. To achieve this goal a numerical model of hydrogen diffusion assisted by stress and strain was used considering diverse residual stress-strain states after tempering. This way the obtained hydrogen accumulation during operation time of the NRPV provides insight into the better tempering conditions from the structural integrity point of view.
Recent Progress Using Solid-State Materials for Hydrogen Storage: A Short Review
Feb 2022
Publication
With the rapid growth in demand for effective and renewable energy the hydrogen era has begun. To meet commercial requirements efficient hydrogen storage techniques are required. So far four techniques have been suggested for hydrogen storage: compressed storage hydrogen liquefaction chemical absorption and physical adsorption. Currently high-pressure compressed tanks are used in the industry; however certain limitations such as high costs safety concerns undesirable amounts of occupied space and low storage capacities are still challenges. Physical hydrogen adsorption is one of the most promising techniques; it uses porous adsorbents which have material benefits such as low costs high storage densities and fast charging–discharging kinetics. During adsorption on material surfaces hydrogen molecules weakly adsorb at the surface of adsorbents via long-range dispersion forces. The largest challenge in the hydrogen era is the development of progressive materials for efficient hydrogen storage. In designing efficient adsorbents understanding interfacial interactions between hydrogen molecules and porous material surfaces is important. In this review we briefly summarize a hydrogen storage technique based on US DOE classifications and examine hydrogen storage targets for feasible commercialization. We also address recent trends in the development of hydrogen storage materials. Lastly we propose spillover mechanisms for efficient hydrogen storage using solid-state adsorbents.
H21- Phase 1 Technical Summary Report
May 2021
Publication
The UK Government signed legislation on 27th June 2019 committing the UK to a legally binding target of Net Zero emissions by 2050. Climate change is one of the most significant technical economic social and business challenges facing the world today.
The H21 NIC Phase 1 project delivered an optimally designed experimentation and testing programme supported by the HSE Science Division and DNV GL with the aim to collect quantifiable evidence to support that the UK distribution network of 2032 will be comparably as safe operating on 100% hydrogen as it currently is on
natural gas. This innovative project begins to fill critical safety evidence gaps surrounding the conversion of the UK gas network to 100% hydrogen. This will facilitate progression towards H21 Phase 2 Operational Safety Demonstrations and the H21 Phase 3 Live Trials to promote customer acceptability and ultimately aid progress towards a government policy decision on heat.
DNV GL and HSE Science Division were engaged to undertake the experimentation testing and QRA update programme of work. DNV GL and HSE Science Division also peer reviewed each other’s programme of work at various stages throughout the project undertaking a challenge and review of the experimental data and results to provide confidence in the conclusions.
A strategic set of tests was designed to cover the range of assets represented across the Great Britain gas distribution networks. The assets used in the testing were mostly recovered from the distribution network as part of the ongoing Iron Mains Risk Reduction Replacement Programme. Controlled testing against a well-defined master testing plan with both natural gas and 100% hydrogen was then undertaken to provide the quantitative evidence to forecast any change to background leakage levels in a 100% hydrogen network.
Key Findings from Phase 1a:
The H21 NIC Phase 1 project delivered an optimally designed experimentation and testing programme supported by the HSE Science Division and DNV GL with the aim to collect quantifiable evidence to support that the UK distribution network of 2032 will be comparably as safe operating on 100% hydrogen as it currently is on
natural gas. This innovative project begins to fill critical safety evidence gaps surrounding the conversion of the UK gas network to 100% hydrogen. This will facilitate progression towards H21 Phase 2 Operational Safety Demonstrations and the H21 Phase 3 Live Trials to promote customer acceptability and ultimately aid progress towards a government policy decision on heat.
DNV GL and HSE Science Division were engaged to undertake the experimentation testing and QRA update programme of work. DNV GL and HSE Science Division also peer reviewed each other’s programme of work at various stages throughout the project undertaking a challenge and review of the experimental data and results to provide confidence in the conclusions.
A strategic set of tests was designed to cover the range of assets represented across the Great Britain gas distribution networks. The assets used in the testing were mostly recovered from the distribution network as part of the ongoing Iron Mains Risk Reduction Replacement Programme. Controlled testing against a well-defined master testing plan with both natural gas and 100% hydrogen was then undertaken to provide the quantitative evidence to forecast any change to background leakage levels in a 100% hydrogen network.
Key Findings from Phase 1a:
- Of the 215 assets tested 41 of them were found to leak 19 of them provided sufficient data to be able to compare hydrogen and methane leak rates.
- The tests showed that assets that were gas tight on methane were also gas tight on hydrogen. Assets that leaked on hydrogen also leaked
- on methane including repaired assets.
- The ratio of the hydrogen to methane volumetric leak rates varied between 1.1 and 2.2 which is largely consistent with the bounding values expected for laminar and turbulent (or inertial) flow which gave ratios of 1.2 and 2.8 respectively.
- None of the PE assets leaked; cast ductile and spun iron leaked to a similar degree (around 26-29% of all iron assets leaked) and the proportion of leaking steel assets was slightly less (14%).
- Four types of joint were responsible for most of the leaks on joints: screwed lead yarn bolted gland and hook bolts.
- All of the repairs that sealed methane leaks also were effective when tested with hydrogen.
Pyrolysis-gasification of Wastes Plastics for Syngas Production Using Metal Modified Zeolite Catalysts Under Different Ratio of Nitrogen/Oxygen
Jun 2020
Publication
The aim of this study was the syngas production by the gasification of plastic waste (polyethylene polypropylene and terephthalate polyethylene). Ca Ce La Mg and Mn were used to promote the Ni/ZSM-5 catalyst in order to enhance the production of higher syngas yield. The modified catalysts can enhanced the reaction rate of the pyrolysis process and resulting in high syngas in the product yields. Especially cerium lanthanum promoted catalysts can enhance the yield of syngas. The effect of the reaction temperature and nitrogen/oxygen ratio of the carrier gas was also investigated. The maximum syngas production was obtained with lanthanum catalyst (112.2 mmol/g (95%N2 and 5%O2) and 130.7 mmol/g (90%N2 and 10%O2) at 850 °C. Less carbon depositions was found at 850 °C or even by the using of catalyst and more oxygen in the carrier gas. The oxygen content of the pyrolysis-gasification atmosphere had a key role to the syngas yield and affects significantly the carbon-monoxide/carbon-dioxide ratio. Catalysts can also accelerate the methanization reactions and isomerize the main carbon frame. Increasing in both temperature and oxygen in the atmosphere led to higher n-paraffin/n-olefin ratio and more multi-ring aromatic hydrocarbons in pyrolysis oils. The concentration of hydrocarbons containing oxygen and branched compounds was also significantly affected by catalysts.
The Technical and Economic Potential of the H2@Scale Concept within the United States
Oct 2020
Publication
The U.S. energy system is evolving as society and technologies change. Renewable electricity generation—especially from wind and solar—is growing rapidly and alternative energy sources are being developed and implemented across the residential commercial transportation and industrial sectors to take advantage of their cost security and health benefits. Systemic changes present numerous challenges to grid resiliency and energy affordability creating a need for synergistic solutions that satisfy multiple applications while yielding system-wide cost and emissions benefits. One such solution is an integrated hydrogen energy system (Figure ES-1). This is the focus of H2@Scale—a U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) initiative led by the Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy’s Hydrogen and Fuel Technologies Office. H2@Scale brings together stakeholders to advance affordable hydrogen production transport storage and utilization in multiple energy sectors. The H2@Scale concept involves hydrogen as an energy intermediate. Hydrogen can be produced from various conventional and renewable energy sources including as a responsive load on the electric grid. Hydrogen has many current applications and many more potential applications such as energy for transportation—used directly in fuel cell electric vehicles (FCEVs) as a feedstock for synthetic fuels and to upgrade oil and biomass—feedstock for industry (e.g. for ammonia production metals refining and other end uses) heat for industry and buildings and electricity storage. Owing to its flexibility and fungibility a hydrogen intermediate could link energy sources that have surplus availability to markets that require energy or chemical feedstocks benefiting both. This document builds upon a growing body of analyses of hydrogen as an energy intermediate by reporting the results from our initial analysis of the potential impacts of the H2@Scale vision by the mid-21st century for the 48 contiguous U.S. states. Previous estimates have been based on expert elicitation and focused on hydrogen demands. We build upon them first by estimating hydrogen’s serviceable consumption potential for possible hydrogen applications and the technical potential for producing hydrogen from various resources. We define the serviceable consumption potential as the quantity of hydrogen that would be consumed to serve the portion of the market that could be captured without considering economics (i.e. if the price of hydrogen were $0/kg over an extended period); thus it can be considered an upper bound for the size of the market. We define the technical potential as the resource potential constrained by real-world geography and system performance but not by economics. We then compare the cumulative serviceable consumption potential with the technical potential of a number of possible sources. Second we estimate economic potential: the quantity of hydrogen at an equilibrium price at which suppliers are willing to sell and consumers are willing to buy the same quantity of hydrogen. We believe this method provides a deeper understanding than was available in the previous analyses. We develop economic potentials for multiple scenarios across various market and technology-advancement assumptions.
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