Policy & Socio-Economics
The Hydrogen Economy can Reduce Costs of Climate Change Mitigation by up to 22%
May 2024
Publication
In response to the urgent need to mitigate climate change via net-zero targets many nations are renewing their interest in clean hydrogen as a net-zero energy carrier. Although clean hydrogen can be directly used in various sectors for deep decarbonization the relatively low energy density and high production costs have raised doubts as to whether clean hydrogen development is worthwhile. Here we improve on the GCAM model by including a more comprehensive and detailed representation of clean hydrogen production distribution and demand in all sectors of the global economy and simulate 25 scenarios to explore the costeffectiveness of integrating clean hydrogen into the global energy system. We show that due to costly technical obstacles clean hydrogen can only provide 3%–9% of the 2050 global final energy use. Nevertheless clean hydrogen deployment can reduce overall energy decarbonization costs by 15%–22% mainly via powering ‘‘hard-to-electrify’’ sectors that would otherwise face high decarbonization expenditures. Our work provides practical references for cost-effective clean hydrogen planning.
Market-based Asset Valuation of Hydrogen Geological Storage
Jul 2023
Publication
Because of hydrogen's low energy density hydrogen storage is a critical component of the hydrogen economy particularly when large-scale and flexible hydrogen utilization is required. There is a sense of urgency to develop hydrogen geological storage projects to support large-scale yet flexible hydrogen utilization. This study aims to answer questions not yet resolved in the research literature discussing the valuation of hydrogen geological storage options for commercial development. This study establishes a net present value (NPV) evaluation framework for geological hydrogen storage that integrates the updated techno-economic analysis and market-based operations. The capital asset pricing model (CAPM) and the related finance theories are applied to determine the risk-adjusted discount rate in building the NPV evaluation framework. The NPV framework has been applied to two geological hydrogen storage projects a single-turn storage serving downstream transportation seasonal demand versus a multiturn storage as part of an integrated renewables-based hydrogen energy system providing peak electric load. From the NPV framework both projects have positive NPVs $46 560 632 and $12 457 546 respectively and International Rate of Return (IRR) values which are higher than the costs of capital. The NPV framework is also applied to the sensitivity analysis and shows that the hydrogen price spread between withdrawal and injection prices site development and well costs are the top three factors that impact both NPV and IRR the most for both projects. The established NPV framework can be used for project risk management by discovering the key cost drivers for the storage assets.
An Overview of Challenges for the Future of Hydrogen
Oct 2023
Publication
Hydrogen’s wide availability and versatile production methods establish it as a primary green energy source driving substantial interest among the public industry and governments due to its future fuel potential. Notable investment is directed toward hydrogen research and material innovation for transmission storage fuel cells and sensors. Ensuring safe and dependable hydrogen facilities is paramount given the challenges in accident control. Addressing material compatibility issues within hydrogen systems remains a critical focus. Challenges roadmaps and scenarios steer long-term planning and technology outlooks. Strategic visions align actions and policies encompassing societal and ecological dimensions. The confluence of hydrogen’s promise with material progress holds the prospect of reshaping our energy landscape sustainably. Forming collective future perspectives to foresee this emerging technology’s potential benefits is valuable. Our review article comprehensively explores the forthcoming challenges in hydrogen technology. We extensively examine the challenges and opportunities associated with hydrogen production incorporating CO2 capture technology. Furthermore the interaction of materials and composites with hydrogen particularly in the context of hydrogen transmission pipeline and infrastructure are discussed to understand the interplay between materials and hydrogen dynamics. Additionally the exploration extends to the embrittlement phenomena during storage and transmission coupled with a comprehensive examination of the advancements and hurdles intrinsic to hydrogen fuel cells. Finally our exploration encompasses addressing hydrogen safety from an industrial perspective. By illuminating these dimensions our article provides a panoramic view of the evolving hydrogen landscape.
The Role of Hydrogen for a Greenhouse Gas-neutral Germany by 2045
May 2023
Publication
This paper aims to provide a holistic analysis of the role of hydrogen for achieving greenhouse gas neutrality in Germany. For that purpose we apply an integrated energy system model which includes all demand sectors of the German energy system and optimizes the transformation pathway from today's energy system to a future cost-optimal energy system. We show that 412 TWh of hydrogen are needed in the year 2045 mostly in the industry and transport sector. Particularly the use of about 267 TWh of hydrogen in industry is essential as there are no cost-effective alternatives for the required emission reduction in the chemical industry or in steel production. Furthermore we illustrate that the German hydrogen supply in the year 2045 requires both an expansion of domestic electrolyzer capacity to 71 GWH2 and hydrogen imports from other European countries and Northern Africa of about 196 TWh. Moreover flexible operation of electrolyzers is cost-optimal and crucial for balancing the intermittent nature of volatile renewable energy sources. Additionally a conducted sensitivity analysis shows that full domestic hydrogen supply in Germany is possible but requires an electrolyzer capacity of 111 GWH2.
Natural Hydrogen in the Energy Transition: Fundamentals, Promise, and Enigmas
Oct 2023
Publication
Beyond its role as an energy vector a growing number of natural hydrogen sources and reservoirs are being discovered all over the globe which could represent a clean energy source. Although the hydrogen amounts in reservoirs are uncertain they could be vast and they could help decarbonize energy-intensive economic sectors and facilitate the energy transition. Natural hydrogen is mainly produced through a geochemical process known as serpentinization which involves the reaction of water with low-silica ferrous minerals. In favorable locations the hydrogen produced can become trapped by impermeable rocks on its way to the atmosphere forming a reservoir. The safe exploitation of numerous natural hydrogen reservoirs seems feasible with current technology and several demonstration plants are being commissioned. Natural hydrogen may show variable composition and require custom separation purification storage and distribution facilities depending on the location and intended use. By investing in research in the mid-term more hydrogen sources could become exploitable and geochemical processes could be artificially stimulated in new locations. In the long term it may be possible to leverage or engineer the interplay between microorganisms and geological substrates to obtain hydrogen and other chemicals in a sustainable manner.
Synergistic Integration of Hydrogen Energy Economy with UK’s Sustainable Development Goals: A Holistic Approach to Enhancing Safety and Risk Mitigation
Oct 2023
Publication
Hydrogen is gaining prominence as a sustainable energy source in the UK aligning with the country’s commitment to advancing sustainable development across diverse sectors. However a rigorous examination of the interplay between the hydrogen economy and the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) is imperative. This study addresses this imperative by comprehensively assessing the risks associated with hydrogen production storage transportation and utilization. The overarching aim is to establish a robust framework that ensures the secure deployment and operation of hydrogen-based technologies within the UK’s sustainable development trajectory. Considering the unique characteristics of the UK’s energy landscape infrastructure and policy framework this paper presents practical and viable recommendations to facilitate the safe and effective integration of hydrogen energy into the UK’s SDGs. To facilitate sophisticated decision making it proposes using an advanced Decision-Making Trial and Evaluation Laboratory (DEMATEL) tool incorporating regret theory and a 2-tuple spherical linguistic environment. This tool enables a nuanced decision-making process yielding actionable insights. The analysis reveals that Incident Reporting and Learning Robust Regulatory Framework Safety Standards and Codes are pivotal safety factors. At the same time Clean Energy Access Climate Action and Industry Innovation and Infrastructure are identified as the most influential SDGs. This information provides valuable guidance for policymakers industry stakeholders and regulators. It empowers them to make well-informed strategic decisions and prioritize actions that bolster safety and sustainable development as the UK transitions towards a hydrogen-based energy system. Moreover the findings underscore the varying degrees of prominence among different SDGs. Notably SDG 13 (Climate Action) exhibits relatively lower overall distinction at 0.0066 and a Relation value of 0.0512 albeit with a substantial impact. In contrast SDG 7 (Clean Energy Access) and SDG 9 (Industry Innovation and Infrastructure) demonstrate moderate prominence levels (0.0559 and 0.0498 respectively) each with its unique influence emphasizing their critical roles in the UK’s pursuit of a sustainable hydrogen-based energy future.
Policy Design for Diffusing Hydrogen Economy and Its Impact on the Japanese Economy for Carbon Neutrality by 2050: Analysis Using the E3ME-FTT Model
Nov 2023
Publication
To achieve carbon neutrality in Japan by 2050 renewable energy needs to be used as the main energy source. Based on the constraints of various renewable energies the importance of hydrogen cannot be ignored. This study aimed to investigate the diffusion of hydrogen demand technologies in various sectors and used projections and assumptions to investigate the hydrogen supply side. By performing simulations with the E3ME-FTT model and comparing various policy scenarios with the reference scenario the economic and environmental impacts of the policy scenarios for hydrogen diffusion were analyzed. Moreover the impact of realizing carbon neutrality by 2050 on the Japanese economy was evaluated. Our results revealed that large-scale decarbonization via hydrogen diffusion is possible (90% decrease of CO2 emissions in 2050 compared to the reference) without the loss of economic activity. Additionally investments in new hydrogen-based and other low-carbon technologies in the power sector freight road transport and iron and steel industry can improve the gross domestic product (1.6% increase in 2050 compared to the reference) as they invoke economic activity and require additional employment (0.6% increase in 2050 compared to the reference). Most of the employment gains are related to decarbonizing the power sector and scaling up the hydrogen supply sector while a lot of job losses can be expected in the mining and fossil fuel industries.
Price Promises, Trust Deficits and Energy Justice: Public Perceptions of Hydrogen Homes
Oct 2023
Publication
In an era characterised by political instability economic uncertainty and mounting environmental pressures hydrogen fuel is being positioned as a critical piece of the global energy security and clean energy agenda. The policy push is noteworthy in the United Kingdom where the government is targeting industrial decarbonisation via hydrogen while exploring a potential role for hydrogen-fuelled home appliances. Despite the imperative to secure social acceptance for accelerating the diffusion of low-carbon energy technologies public perceptions of hydrogen homes remain largely underexplored by the researcher community. In response this analysis draws on extensive focus group data to understand the multi-dimensional nature of social acceptance in the context of the domestic hydrogen transition. Through an integrated mixed-methods multigroup analysis the study demonstrates that socio-political and market acceptance are strongly interlinked owing to a trust deficit in the government and energy industry coupled to underlying dissatisfaction with energy markets. At the community level hydrogen homes are perceived as a potentially positive mechanism for industrial regeneration and local economic development. Households consider short-term disruptive impacts to be tolerable provided temporary disconnection from the gas grid does not exceed three days. However to strengthen social acceptance clearer communication is needed regarding the spatial dynamics and equity implications of the transition. The analysis concludes that existing trust deficits will need to be overcome which entails fulfilling not only a ‘price promise’ on the cost of hydrogen appliances but also enacting a ‘price pledge’ on energy bills. These deliverables are fundamental to securing social acceptance for hydrogen homes.
Hydrogen Towards Sustainable Transition: A Review of Production, Economic, Environmental Impact and Scaling Factors
Sep 2023
Publication
Currently meeting the global energy demand is largely dependent on fossil fuels such as natural gas coal and oil. Fossil fuels represent a danger to the Earth’s environment and its biological systems. The utilisation of these fuels results in a rise in atmospheric CO2 levels which in turn triggers global warming and adverse changes in the climate. Furthermore these represent finite energy resources that will eventually deplete. There is a pressing need to identify and harness renewable energy sources as a replacement for fossil fuels in the near future. This shift is expected to have a minimal environmental impact and would contribute to ensuring energy security. Hydrogen is considered a highly desirable fuel option with the potential to substitute depleting hydrocarbon resources. This concise review explores diverse methods of renewable hydrogen production with a primary focus on solar wind geothermal and mainly water-splitting techniques such as electrolysis thermolysis photolysis and biomass-related processes. It addresses their limitations and key challenges hampering the global hydrogen economy’s growth including clean value chain creation storage transportation production costs standards and investment risks. The study concludes with research recommendations to enhance production efficiencies and policy suggestions for governments to mitigate investment risks while scaling up the hydrogen economy.
Heat Pumps for Germany—Additional Pressure on the Supply–Demand Equilibrium and How to Cope with Hydrogen
Jun 2024
Publication
In the context of the German Energiewende the current government intends to install six million heat pumps by 2030. Replacing gas heating by power has significant implications on the infrastructure. One of the biggest advantages of using gas is the existing storage portfolio. It has not been clarified yet how power demand should be structured on an annual level—especially since power storage is already a problem and solar power is widely promoted to fuel heat pumps despite having an inverse profile. In this article three different solutions namely hydrogen batteries and carbon capture and storage are discussed with respect to resources energy and financial demand. It shows that relying solely on batteries or hydrogen is not solving the structuring problem. A combination of all existing technologies (including fossil fuels) is required to structure the newly generated electricity demand
Identifying Social Aspect Related to the Hydrogen Economy: Review, Synthesis, and Research Perspectives
Oct 2023
Publication
Energy transition will reshape the power sector and hydrogen is a key energy carrier that could contribute to energy security. The inclusion of sustainability criteria is crucial for the adequate design/deployment of resilient hydrogen networks. While cost and environmental metrics are commonly included in hydrogen models social aspects are rarely considered. This paper aims to identify the social criteria related to the hydrogen economy by using a systematic hybrid literature review. The main contribution is the identification of twelve social aspects which are described ranked and discussed. “Accessibility” “Information” “H2 markets” and “Acceptability” are now emerging as the main themes of hydrogen-related social research. Identified gaps are e.g. lack of the definition of the value of H2 for society insufficient research for “socio-political” aspects (e.g. geopolitics wellbeing) scarce application of social lifecycle assessment and the low amount of works with a focus on social practices and cultural issues.
Future Energy Scenarios 2019
Jul 2019
Publication
Decarbonising energy is fundamental in the transition towards a sustainable future. Our Future Energy Scenarios aim to stimulate debate to inform the decisions that will help move us towards achieving carbon reduction targets and ultimately shape the energy system of the future.
Hydrogen Production, Storage, Utilisation and Environmental Impacts: A Review
Oct 2021
Publication
Dihydrogen (H2) commonly named ‘hydrogen’ is increasingly recognised as a clean and reliable energy vector for decarbonisation and defossilisation by various sectors. The global hydrogen demand is projected to increase from 70 million tonnes in 2019 to 120 million tonnes by 2024. Hydrogen development should also meet the seventh goal of ‘affordable and clean energy’ of the United Nations. Here we review hydrogen production and life cycle analysis hydrogen geological storage and hydrogen utilisation. Hydrogen is produced by water electrolysis steam methane reforming methane pyrolysis and coal gasification. We compare the environmental impact of hydrogen production routes by life cycle analysis. Hydrogen is used in power systems transportation hydrocarbon and ammonia production and metallugical industries. Overall combining electrolysis-generated hydrogen with hydrogen storage in underground porous media such as geological reservoirs and salt caverns is well suited for shifting excess of-peak energy to meet dispatchable on-peak demand.
Hydrogen in the Strategies of the European Union Member States
Jan 2021
Publication
Energy and environmental challenges are two key issues related to the sustainable development of the Earth. Fossil fuels (oil coal and natural gas) still supply more than 85% of world energy consumption. Several nations around the globe are striving to provide access to clean and sustainable energy by 2030 (Hostettler et al. 2015). When the Paris Agreement entered into force in 2016 many countries have recently announced serious commitments to significantly reduce their carbon dioxide emissions promising to achieve “net zero” by 2050. he main goal is to limit global warming to well below 2 degrees Celsius preferably to 1.5 degrees Celsius compared to pre-industrial levels (IEA 2021). his requires a total transformation of the energy systems that underpin our economies. In the case of renewable energy technology deployment hydrogen may provide a complementary solution due to its flexibility as an energy carrier and storage medium. The European Union (EU) a signatory to the Paris Agreement demonstrated interest in hydrogen as an invaluable raw material in considerably reducing CO2 emissions. Hydrogen inthe EU energy mix is estimated to increase from the current level (less than 2%) to 13–14% in 2050 (EC 2018).
Fuelling the Transition Podcast: Using Hydrogen to Achieve Net-zero
Jan 2021
Publication
In order to achieve the EU’s target of 55% carbon reduction by 2030 hydrogen will have to make a key contribution to the energy mix. With many applications in industrial heat mobility power and chemical refineries hydrogen can be used to decarbonise where electrification is not possible. Equinor is a broad energy company with 21000 employees developing oil gas wind and solar energy in more than 30 countries worldwide. Equinor have been at the forefront of promoting hydrogen projects in Europe and developing low-carbon hydrogen solutions. In this episode Johan Leuraers Chief Consultant - Policy and Regulatory Affairs at Equinor and John Williams Head of Hydrogen Expertise Cluster at AFRY Management Consulting join us to discuss the main barriers to the uptake of hydrogen and the next steps to kick-start the hydrogen economy.
The podcast can be found on their website.
The podcast can be found on their website.
Decarbonisation of Heat and the Role of ‘Green Gas’ in the United Kingdom
May 2018
Publication
This paper looks at the possible role of ‘green gas’ in the decarbonisation of heat in the United Kingdom. The option is under active discussion at the moment because of the UK’s rigorous carbon reduction targets and the growing realisation that there are problems with the ‘default’ option of electrifying heat. Green gas appears to be technically and economically feasible. However as the paper discusses there are major practical and policy obstacles which make it unlikely that the government will commit itself to developing ‘green gas’ in the foreseeable future.
Future Energy Scenarios 2018
Jul 2018
Publication
Welcome to our Future Energy Scenarios. These scenarios which stimulate debate and help inform the decisions that will shape our energy future have never been more important – especially when you consider the extent to which the energy landscape is being transformed.
Can the Hydrogen Economy Concept be the Solution to the Future Energy Crisis?
Feb 2022
Publication
The Hydrogen Economy concept is being proposed as a means of reducing and eventually decarbonising the world’s energy use. It looks to hydrogen as being a replacement for methane (natural gas) and generally as a way of removing all fossil fuels from the energy supply. The concept however has at least four flaws as follows: (1) hydrogen has significantly different properties to methane; (2) hydrogen has properties that create significant hazards; (3) hydrogen has a very small initiation (activation) energy; and (4) liquid hydrogen cannot readily replace liquefied natural gas (LNG). Hydrogen’s hazards will prevent it from being accepted in a societal sense. To the question ‘Can the Hydrogen Economy concept be the solution to the future energy crisis?’ the answer is ‘no’. Hydrogen has and will have a role in world energy but that role will be limited to industry. For the future we need an advanced electric economy.
Hydrogen from Offshore Wind: Investor Perspective on the Profitability of a Hybrid System Including for Curtailment
Mar 2020
Publication
Accommodating renewables on the electricity grid may hinder development opportunities for offshore wind farms (OWFs) as they begin to experience significant curtailment or constraint. However there is potential to combine investment in OWFs with Power-to-Gas (PtG) converting electricity to hydrogen via electrolysis for an alternative/complementary revenue. Using historic wind speed and simulated system marginal costs data this work models the electricity generated and potential revenues of a 504 MW OWF. Three configurations are analysed; (1) all electricity is sold to the grid (2) all electricity is converted to hydrogen and sold and (3) a hybrid system where power is converted to hydrogen when curtailment occurs and/or when the system marginal cost is low with the effect of curtailment analysed in each scenario. These represent the status quo a potential future configuration and an innovative business model respectively. The willingness of an investor to build PtG are determined by changes to the net present value (NPV) of a project. Results suggest that configuration (1) is most profitable and that curtailment mitigation alone is not sufficient to secure investment in PtG. By acting as an artificial floor in the electricity price a hybrid configuration (3) is promising and increases NPV for all hydrogen values greater than €4.2/kgH2. Hybrid system attractiveness increases with curtailment only if the hydrogen value is significantly above the levelised cost of €3.77/kgH2. In order for an investor to choose to pursue configuration (2) the offshore wind farm would have to anticipate 8.5% curtailment and be able to receive €4.5/kgH2 or 25% curtailment and receive €4/kgH2. The capital costs and discount rates are the most sensitive parameters and ambitious combinations of technology improvements could produce a levelised cost of €3/kgH2.
Circular Economy for the Energy System as a Leverage for Low-carbon Transition: Long-Ter, Analysis of the Case of the South-East Region of France
Mar 2024
Publication
The circular economy is a decisive strategy for reconciling economic development and the environment. In France the CE was introduced into the law in 2015 with the objective of closing the loop. The legislation also delegates energy policy towards the French regions by granting them the jurisdiction to directly plan the energy–climate issues on their territory and to develop local energy resources. Thereby the SUD PACA region has redefined its objectives and targeted carbon neutrality and the transition to a CE by 2050. To study this transition we developed a TIMESPACA optimization model. The results show that following a CE perspective to develop a local energy system could contribute to reducing CO2 emissions by 50% in final energy consumption and reaching almost free electricity production. To obtain greater reductions the development of the regional energy systems should follow a careful policy design favoring the transition to low energy-consuming behavior and the strategical allocation of resources across the different sectors. Biomethane should be allocated to the buildings and industrial sector while hydrogen should be deployed for buses and freight transport vehicles.
The Role of Hydrogen and H2 Mobility on the Green Transition of Islands: The Case of Anafi (Greece)
Apr 2023
Publication
The holistic green energy transition of non-interconnected islands faces several challenges if all the energy sectors are included i.e. electricity heating/cooling and mobility. On the one hand the penetration of renewable energy systems (RES) is limited due to design restrictions with respect to the peak demand. On the other hand energy-intensive heating and mobility sectors pose significant challenges and may be difficult to electrify. The focus of this study is on implementing a hybrid Wind–PV system on the non-interconnected island of Anafi (Greece) that utilizes surplus renewable energy production for both building heating through heat pumps and hydrogen generation. This comprehensive study aims to achieve a holistic green transition by addressing all three main sectors—electricity heating and transportation. The produced hydrogen is utilized to address the energy needs of the mobility sector (H2 mobility) focusing primarily on public transportation vehicles (buses) and secondarily on private vehicles. The overall RES production was modeled to be 91724 MWh with a RES penetration of 84.68%. More than 40% of the produced electricity from RES was in the form of excess electricity that could be utilized for hydrogen generation. The modeled generated hydrogen was simulated to be more than 40 kg H2/day which could cover all four bus routes of the island and approximately 200 cars for moderate use i.e. traveled distances of less than 25 km/day for each vehicle.
Technical, Economic, Carbon Footprint Assessment, and Prioritizing Stations for Hydrogen Production Using Wind Energy: A Case Study
Jul 2021
Publication
While Afghanistan’s power sector is almost completely dependent on fossil fuels it still cannot meet the rising power demand of this country. Deploying a combination of renewable energy systems with hydrogen production as the excess energy storage mechanism could be a sustainable long-term approach for addressing some of the energy problems of Afghanistan. Since Badakhshan is known to have a higher average wind speed than any other Afghan province in this study a technical economic and carbon footprint assessment was performed to investigate the potential for wind power and hydrogen production in this province. Wind data of four stations in Badakhshan were used for technical assessment for three heights of 10 30 and 40 m using the Weibull probability distribution function. This technical assessment was expanded by estimating the energy pattern factor probability of wind speeds greater than 5 m/s wind power density annual power output and annual hydrogen output. This was followed by an economic assessment which involved computing the Leveled Cost Of Energy (LCOE) the Leveled Cost Of Hydrogen (LCOH) and the payback period and finally an carbon footprint assessment which involved estimating the consequent CO2 reduction in two scenarios. The assessments were performed for 22 turbines manufactured by reputable companies with capacities ranging from 600 kW to 2.3 MW. The results showed that the entire Badakhshan province and especially Qal’eh-ye Panjeh and Fayazabad have excellent potentials in terms of wind energy that can be harvested for wind power and hydrogen production. Also wind power generation in this province will be highly cost-effective as the produced electricity will cost about one-third of the price of electricity supplied by the government. For better evaluation the GIS maps of wind power and hydrogen outputs were prepared using the IDW method. These maps showed that the eastern and northeastern parts of Badakhshan province have higher wind power-hydrogen production potentials. The results of ranking the stations with SWARA-EDAS hybrid MCDM methods showed that Qal’eh-ye Panjeh station was the best location to produce hydrogen from wind energy.
Transition Analysis of Budgetary Allocation for Projects on Hydrogen-Related Technologies in Japan
Oct 2020
Publication
Hydrogen technologies are promising candidates of new energy technologies for electric power load smoothing. However regardless of long-term public investment hydrogen economy has not been realized. In Japan the National Research and Development Institute of New Energy and Industrial Technology Development Organization (NEDO) a public research-funding agency has invested more than 200 billion yen in the technical development of hydrogen-related technologies. However hydrogen technologies such as fuel cell vehicles (FCVs) have not been disseminated yet. Continuous and strategic research and development (R&D) are needed but there is a lack of expertise in this field. In this study the transition of the budgetary allocations by NEDO were analyzed by classifying NEDO projects along the hydrogen supply chain and research stage. We found a different R&D focus in different periods. From 2004 to 2007 empirical research on fuel cells increased with the majority of research focusing on standardization. From 2008 to 2011 investment in basic research of fuel cells increased again the research for verification of fuel cells continued and no allocation for research on hydrogen production was confirmed. Thereafter the investment trend did not change until around 2013 when practical application of household fuel cells (ENE-FARM) started selling in 2009 in terms of hydrogen supply chain. Hydrogen economy requires a different hydrogen supply infrastructure that is an existing infrastructure of city gas for ENE-FARM and a dedicated infrastructure for FCVs (e.g. hydrogen stations). We discussed the possibility that structural inertia could prevent the transition to investing more in hydrogen infrastructure from hydrogen utilization technology. This work has significant implications for designing national research projects to realize hydrogen economy.
Tourist Preferences for Fuel Cell Vehicle Rental: Going Green with Hydrogen on the Island of Tenerife
Mar 2023
Publication
Using a discrete choice experiment (DCE) a survey of international tourists on the island of Tenerife is conducted to examine preferences for fuel cell vehicle (FCV) rental while on vacation. Survey respondents were generally supportive of FCVs and willing to hire one as part of their trip but for most individuals this is contingent on an adequate fuel station infrastructure. A latent class model was used to identify three distinct groups; one of which potentially represent early adopters e they have a high willingness-to-pay (WTP) for green hydrogen and are more likely to accept a low number of fuel stations but it could be challenging to convince them to use FCVs if they are not run on green hydrogen.
Energy System Changes in 1.5 °C, Well Below 2 °C and 2 °C Scenarios
Dec 2018
Publication
Meeting the Paris Agreement's goal to limit global warming to well below 2 °C and pursuing efforts towards 1.5 °C is likely to require more rapid and fundamental energy system changes than the previously-agreed 2 °C target. Here we assess over 200 integrated assessment model scenarios which achieve 2 °C and well-below 2 °C targets drawn from the IPCC's fifth assessment report database combined with a set of 1.5 °C scenarios produced in recent years. We specifically assess differences in a range of near-term indicators describing CO2 emissions reductions pathways changes in primary energy and final energy across the economy's major sectors in addition to more detailed metrics around the use of carbon capture and storage (CCS) negative emissions low-carbon electricity and hydrogen.
Decarbonization of Former Lignite Regions with Renewable Hydrogen: The Western Macedonia Case
Oct 2023
Publication
For lignite intense regions such as the case of Western Macedonia (WM) the production and utilization of green hydrogen is one of the most viable ways to achieve near zero emissions in sectors like transport chemicals heat and energy production synthetic fuels etc. However the implementation of each technology that is available to a respective sector differs significantly in terms of readiness and the current installation scale of each technology. The goal of this study is the provision of a transition roadmap for a decarbonized future for the WM region through utilizing green hydrogen. The technologies which can take part in this transition are presented along with the implementation purpose of each technology and the reasonable extension that each technology could be adopted in the present context. The WM region’s limited capacity for green hydrogen production leads to certain integration scenarios with regards to the required hydrogen electrolyzer capacities and required power whereas an environmental assessment is also presented for each scenario.
Future Energy Scenarios 2020
Jul 2020
Publication
Our Future Energy Scenarios (FES) outline four different credible pathways for the future of energy over the next 30 years. Based on input from over 600 experts the report looks at the energy needed in Britain across electricity and gas - examining where it could come from how it needs to change and what this means for consumers society and the energy system itself.
Opportunities for Production and Utilization of Green Hydrogen in the Philippines
Jun 2021
Publication
The Philippines is exploring different alternative sources of energy to become energy-independent while significantly reducing the country’s greenhouse gas emissions. Green hydrogen from renewable energy is one of the most sustainable alternatives with its application as an energy carrier and as a source of clean and sustainable energy as well as raw material for various industrial processes. As a preliminary study in the country this paper aims to explore different production and utilization routes for a green hydrogen economy in the Philippines. Production from electrolysis includes various available renewable sources consisting of geothermal hydropower wind solar and biomass as well as ocean technology and nuclear energy when they become available in the future. Different utilization routes include the application of green hydrogen in the transportation power generation industry and utility sectors. The results of this study can be incorporated in the development of the pathways for hydrogen economy in the Philippines and can be applied in other emerging economies.
Analysis of the Levelized Cost of Renewable Hydrogen in Austria
Mar 2023
Publication
Austria is committed to the net-zero climate goal along with the European Union. This requires all sectors to be decarbonized. Hereby hydrogen plays a vital role as stated in the national hydrogen strategy. A report commissioned by the Austrian government predicts a minimum hydrogen demand of 16 TWh per year in Austria in 2040. Besides hydrogen imports domestic production can ensure supply. Hence this study analyses the levelized cost of hydrogen for an off-grid production plant including a proton exchange membrane electrolyzer wind power and solar photovoltaics in Austria. In the first step the capacity factors of the renewable electricity sources are determined by conducting a geographic information system analysis. Secondly the levelized cost of electricity for wind power and solarphotovoltaics plants in Austria is calculated. Thirdly the most cost-efficient portfolio of wind power and solar photovoltaics plants is determined using electricity generation profiles with a 10-min granularity. The modelled system variants differ among location capacity factors of the renewable electricity sources and the full load hours of the electrolyzer. Finally selected variables are tested for their sensitivities. With the applied model the hydrogen production cost for decentralized production plants can be calculated for any specific location. The levelized cost of hydrogen estimates range from 3.08 EUR/kg to 13.12 EUR/kg of hydrogen whereas it was found that the costs are most sensitive to the capacity factors of the renewable electricity sources and the full load hours of the electrolyzer. The novelty of the paper stems from the model applied that calculates the levelized cost of renewable hydrogen in an off-grid hydrogen production system. The model finds a cost-efficient portfolio of directly coupled wind power and solar photovoltaics systems for 80 different variants in an Austria-specific context.
Fuelling the Transition Podcast: Building the UK Hydrogen Backbone
Feb 2022
Publication
In this episode Tony Green Hydrogen Director at National Grid and John Williams Head of Hydrogen Expertise Cluster at AFRYManagement Consulting join us to discuss the challenges in implementing hydrogen. Tony is involved in two exciting hydrogen projects: FutureGrid andProject Union. FutureGrid involves building a facility to create a representative whole-network to trial hydrogen. Project Union will develop a UK hydrogen ‘backbone’ joining together clusters around the country potentially creating a 2000km hydrogen network.
In addition to discussing these projects this episode will explore the following issues:
♦ Managing the transition and challenges in repurposing natural gas pipelines to hydrogen
♦ The potential for blending and de-blending hydrogen
♦ The impact of hydrogen on National Grid’s regulatory approach
♦ How to take the first steps towards a hydrogen wholesale market"
The podcast can be found on their website.
In addition to discussing these projects this episode will explore the following issues:
♦ Managing the transition and challenges in repurposing natural gas pipelines to hydrogen
♦ The potential for blending and de-blending hydrogen
♦ The impact of hydrogen on National Grid’s regulatory approach
♦ How to take the first steps towards a hydrogen wholesale market"
The podcast can be found on their website.
Life Cycle Assessments Use in Hydrogen-related Policies: The Case for a Harmonized Methodology Addressing Multifunctionality
May 2024
Publication
Legislation regulating the sustainability requirements for hydrogen technologies relies more and more on life cycle assessments (LCAs). Due to different scopes and development processes different pieces of EU legislation refer to different LCA methodologies with differences in the way multifunctional processes (i.e. co-productions recycling and energy recovery) are treated. These inconsistencies arise because incentive mechanisms are not standardized across sectors even though the end product hydrogen remains the same. The goal of this paper is to compare the life-cycle greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions of hydrogen from four production pathways depending on the multifunctional approach prescribed by the different EU policies (e.g. using substitution or allocation). The study reveals a large variation in the LCA results. For instance the life-cycle GHG emissions of hydrogen co-produced with methanol is found to vary from 1 kg CO2-equivalent/kg H2 (when mass allocation is considered) to 11 kg CO2-equivalent/kg H2 (when economic allocation is used). These inconsistencies could affect the market (e.g. hydrogen from a certain pathway could be considered sustainable or unsustainable depending on the approach) and the environment (e.g. pathways that do not lead to a global emission reduction could be promoted). To mitigate these potential negative effects we urge for harmonized and strict guidelines to assess the life-cycle GHG emissions of hydrogen technologies in an EU policy context. Harmonization should cover international policies too to avoid the same risks when hydrogen will be traded based on its GHG emissions. The appropriate methodological approach for each production pathway should be chosen by policymakers in collaboration with the LCA community and stakeholders from the industry based on the potential market and environmental consequences of such choice.
Positioning Germany in an International Hydrogen Economy: A Policy Review
Apr 2024
Publication
Germany the European Union member state with the largest fiscal space and its leading manufacturer of industrial goods is pursuing an ambitious hydrogen strategy aiming at establishing itself as a major technology provider and importer of green hydrogen. The success of its hydrogen strategy represents not only a key element in realizing the European vision of climate neutrality but also a central driver of an emerging global hydrogen economy. This article provides a detailed review of German policy highlighting its prominent international dimension and its implications for the development of a global renewable hydrogen economy. It provides an overview of the strategy’s central goals and how these have evolved since the launch of the strategy in 2020. Next it moves on to provide an overview of the strategy’s main areas of intervention and highlights corresponding policy instruments. For this we draw on a comprehensive assessment of hydrogen policy instruments which have been systematically analyzed and coded. This was complemented by a detailed analysis of policy documents and information gathered in six interviews with government officials and staff of key implementing agencies. The article places particular emphasis on the strategy’s international dimension. While less significant in financial terms than domestic hydrogen-related spending it represents a defining feature of the German hydrogen strategy setting it apart from strategies in other major economies. The article closes with a reflection on the key features of the strategy compared to other important countries identifies gaps of the strategy and discusses important avenues for future research.
Monitored Data and Social Perceptions Analysis of Battery Electric and Hydrogen Fuelled Buses in Urban and Suburban Areas
Jul 2023
Publication
Electrification of the transportation sector is one of the main drivers in the decarbonization of energy and mobility systems and it is a way to ensure security of energy supply. Public bus fleets can assist in achieving fast reduction of CO2 emissions. This article provides an analysis of a unique real-world dataset to support decision makers in the decarbonization of public fleets and interlink it with the social acceptance of drivers. Data was collected from 21 fuel cell and electric buses. The tank-to-wheel efficiency results of fuel cell electric buses (FCEB) are much lower than that of battery electric buses (BEB) and there is a higher variation in consumption for BEBs compared to FCEBs. Both technologies permit a strong reduction in CO2 emissions compared to conventional buses. There is a high level of acceptance of drivers which are likely to support the transition towards zero-emission buses introduced by the management.
Global Hydrogen Review 2023
Sep 2023
Publication
The Global Hydrogen Review is an annual publication by the International Energy Agency that tracks hydrogen production and demand worldwide as well as progress in critical areas such as infrastructure development trade policy regulation investments and innovation. The report is an output of the Clean Energy Ministerial Hydrogen Initiative and is intended to inform energy sector stakeholders on the status and future prospects of hydrogen while also informing discussions at the Hydrogen Energy Ministerial Meeting organised by Japan. Focusing on hydrogen’s potentially major role in meeting international energy and climate goals the Review aims to help decision makers fine-tune strategies to attract investment and facilitate deployment of hydrogen technologies at the same time as creating demand for hydrogen and hydrogen-based fuels. It compares real-world developments with the stated ambitions of government and industry. This year’s report includes a focus on demand creation for low-emission hydrogen. Global hydrogen use is increasing but demand remains so far concentrated in traditional uses in refining and the chemical industry and mostly met by hydrogen produced from unabated fossil fuels. To meet climate ambitions there is an urgent need to switch hydrogen use in existing applications to low-emission hydrogen and to expand use to new applications in heavy industry or long-distance transport.
Future Green Energy: A Global Analysis
Jun 2024
Publication
The main problem confronting the world is human-caused climate change which is intrinsically linked to the need for energy both now and in the future. Renewable (green) energy has been proposed as a future solution and many renewable energy technologies have been developed for different purposes. However progress toward net zero carbon emissions by 2050 and the role of renewable energy in 2050 are not well known. This paper reviews different renewable energy technologies developed by different researchers and their potential and challenges to date and it derives lessons for world and especially African policymakers. According to recent research results the mean global capabilities for solar wind biogas geothermal hydrogen and ocean power are 325 W 900 W 300 W 434 W 150 W and 2.75 MWh respectively and their capacities for generating electricity are 1.5 KWh 1182.5 KWh 1.7 KWh 1.5 KWh 1.55 KWh and 3.6 MWh respectively. Securing global energy leads to strong hope for meeting the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) such as those for hunger health education gender equality climate change and sustainable development. Therefore renewable energy can be a considerable contributor to future fuels.
Supply and Demand Drivers of Global Hydrogen Deployment in the Transition Toward a Decarbonized Energy System
Nov 2023
Publication
The role of hydrogen in energy system decarbonization is being actively examined by the research and policy communities. We evaluate the potential “hydrogen economy” in global climate change mitigation scenarios using the Global Change Analysis Model (GCAM). We consider major hydrogen production methods in conjunction with delivery options to understand how hydrogen infrastructure affects its deployment. We also consider a rich set of hydrogen end-use technologies and vary their costs to understand how demand technologies affect deployment. We find that the availability of hydrogen transmission and distribution infrastructure primarily affects the hydrogen production mix particularly the share produced centrally versus on-site whereas assumptions about end-use technology primarily affect the scale of hydrogen deployment. In effect hydrogen can be a source of distributed energy enabled by on-site renewable electrolysis and to a lesser extent by on-site production at industrial facilities using natural gas with carbon capture and storage (CCS). While the share of hydrogen in final energy is small relative to the share of other major energy carriers in our scenarios hydrogen enables decarbonization in difficult-to-electrify end uses such as industrial high-temperature heat. Hydrogen deployment and in turn its contribution to greenhouse gas mitigation increases as the climate objective is tightened.
Hydrogen as a Transition Tool in a Fossil Fuel Resource Region: Taking China’s Coal Capital Shanxi as an Example
Aug 2023
Publication
Because of the pressure to meet carbon neutrality targets carbon reduction has become a challenge for fossil fuel resource-based regions. Even though China has become the most active country in carbon reduction its extensive energy supply and security demand make it difficult to turn away from its dependence on coal-based fossil energy. This paper analyzes the Chinese coal capital—Shanxi Province—to determine whether the green low-carbon energy transition should be focused on coal resource areas. In these locations the selection and effect of transition tools are key to ensuring that China meets its carbon reduction goal. Due to the time window of clean coal utilization the pressure of local governments and the survival demands of local high energy consuming enterprises Shanxi Province chose hydrogen as its important transition tool. A path for developing hydrogen resources has been established through lobbying and corporative influence on local and provincial governments. Based on such policy guidance Shanxi has realized hydrogen applications in large-scale industrial parks regional public transport and the iron and steel industry. This paper distinguishes between the development strategies of gray and green hydrogen. It shows that hydrogen can be an effective development model for resource-based regions as it balances economic stability and energy transition.
Towards Green Hydrogen? - A Comparison of German and African Visions and Expectations in the Context of the H2Atlas-Africa Project
Sep 2023
Publication
Green hydrogen promises to be critical in achieving a sustainable and renewable energy transition. As green hydrogen is produced with renewables green hydrogen could become an energy storage medium of the future and even substitute the current unsustainable grey or blue hydrogen used in the industry. Bringing this transition into reality for instance in Germany there are visions to rapidly build hydrogen facilities in Africa and export the produced green hydrogen to Europe. One problem however is that these visions presumably conflict with the visions of actors within Africa. Therefore this study aims to provide an initial assessment of African stakeholders’ visions for future energy exports and renewable energy expectations. By comparing visions from Germany and Africa this assessment was conducted to identify differences in green energy and hydrogen visions that could lead to conflict and similarities that could be the basis for cooperation. The National Hydrogen Strategy outlines the German visions which clarifies that Germany will have to import green hydrogen to meet its green transition target. In this context of future energy export demand a partnership between German and African researchers on assessing green hydrogen potentials in Africa started. The African visions were explored by surveying the partners from different African countries working on the project. The results revealed that while both sides see the need for an immediate transition to renewable energy the African side is not envisioning the immediate export of green hydrogen. Based on the responses the partners are primarily concerned with improving the continent’s still deficient energy access for both the population and industry. Nevertheless this African perspective greatly emphasises cross-border cooperation where both sides can realise their visions. In the case of Germany that German investment could build infrastructure which would benefit the receiving African country or countries and open up the possibility for the envisioned green hydrogen export to Europe.
Parameterization Proposal to Determine the Feasibility of Geographic Areas for the Green Hydrogen Industry under Socio-environmental and Technical Constraints in Chile
Oct 2023
Publication
Chile abundant in solar and wind energy resources presents significant potential for the production of green hydrogen a promising renewable energy vector. However realizing this potential requires an understanding of the most suitable locations for the installation of green hydrogen industries. This study proposes a quantitative methodology that identifies and ranks potential public lands for industrial use based on a range of technical parameters (such as solar and wind availability) and socio-environmental considerations (including land use restrictions and population density). The results reveal optimal locations that can facilitate informed sustainable decision-making for large-scale green hydrogen implementation in Chile. While this methodology does not replace project-specific technical or environmental impact studies it provides a flexible general classification to guide initial site selection. Notably this approach can be applied to other regions worldwide with abundant solar and wind resources such as Australia and Northern Africa promoting more effective and sustainable global decision-making for green hydrogen production.
Renewable Fuel Production and the Impact of Hydrogen Infrastructure - A Case Study of the Nordics
Apr 2024
Publication
Hard-to-electrify sectors will require renewable fuels to facilitate the green transition in the future. Therefore it is crucial to identify promising production locations while taking into account the local biomass resources variable renewable energy sources and the synergies between sectors. In this study investments and dispatch operations are optimised of a large catalogue of renewable fuel production technologies in the open-source software SpineOpt and this is soft-linked to the comprehensive energy system model Balmorel. We analyse future production pathways by comparing various levels of hydrogen infrastructure including large-scale hydrogen storage and assess system impacts. The results indicate that methanol may provide synergies in its multipurpose use as an early (2030–2040) shipping fuel and later as an aviation fuel through further refining if ammonia becomes more competitive (2050). We furthermore show that a hydrogen infrastructure increases the competitiveness of non-flexible hydrogen-based fuel production technologies. Offshore electrolysis hubs decrease energy system impacts in scenarios with 105 TWh of Nordic hydrogen export. However hydrogen export scenarios are much costlier compared to scenarios with no export unless a high hydrogen price is received. Finally we find that emission taxes in the range of 250–265 e/tCO2 will be necessary for renewable fuels to become competitive.
The European Hydrogen Policy Landscape
Apr 2024
Publication
This report aims to summarise the status of the European hydrogen policies and standards landscape. It is based on the information available at the European Hydrogen Observatory (EHO) platform the leading source of data and information on hydrogen in Europe (EU27 EFTA and the UK) providing an overview of the European and national policies legislations strategies and codes and standards which impact the deployment of hydrogen technologies and infrastructures. The EHO database covers a total of 29 EU policies and legislations that directly or indirectly affect the development and deployment of hydrogen technologies. To achieve its net zero ambitions the EU started with cross-cutting strategies such as the EU Green Deal and the EU Hydrogen Strategy setting forward roadmaps and targets that are to be achieved in the near future. As a next step the EU has developed legislations such as those bundled in the Fit for 55 package to meet the targets they have put forward. The implemented legislations including funding vehicles and initiatives have an impact on the whole value chain of hydrogen including production transport storage and distribution and end-uses. At national level as of July 2023 63% of the European countries have successfully published their national strategies in the hydrogen sector while 6% of the countries are currently in the draft stage. Several European countries have strategically incorporated quantitative indicators within their national strategies outlining their targets and estimates across the hydrogen value chain. This deliberate approach reflects a commitment to providing clear and measurable goals within their hydrogen strategies. A target often used in the national strategies is on electrolyser capacity as an effort to enhance the domestic renewable hydrogen production. Germany took the lead with an ambitious goal of achieving 10 GW by 2030 followed by France (6.5 GW) and Denmark (4 - 6 GW). Other targets that some of the countries use in their strategies are on the number of hydrogen refuelling stations fuel cell electric vehicles and total (renewable) hydrogen demand. A few countries also have targets on renewable hydrogen uptake in industry and hydrogen injection limit in the transmission grid. To monitor the policies and legislation that are adopted on a national level across the hydrogen value chain a survey was launched with national experts which was validated by Hydrogen Europe. In total 28 European countries have participated to the survey. On production the survey revealed that 61% of country specialists report that their country provides support for capital expenditure (CAPEX) in the development of renewable or low-carbon hydrogen production plants. Moreover 7 countries also provide support for operational expenditure (OPEX). Furthermore 8 countries have instituted official 6 permitting guidelines for hydrogen production projects while 5 countries have enacted a legal act or established an agency serving as a single point of contact for hydrogen project developers. For transmission only two countries reported to provide support schemes for hydrogen injection. Several countries have policies in place that clearly define the hydrogen limit in their transmission grid for now and in the future ranging from 0.02% up to 15% while a few countries define within their policies the operation of hydrogen storage facilities. On end-use the majority of countries totalling 71% reported to have implemented support schemes aimed at promoting the adoption of hydrogen in the mobility sector. Purchase subsidies stand out as the predominant form of support for fuel cell electric vehicles (FCEVs) with implementation observed in 17 countries. In the context of support schemes for stationary fuel applications for heating or power generation only two countries have adopted such measures. A slightly larger group of four countries do provide support for the deployment of residential and commercial heating systems utilizing hydrogen. For hydrogen end-use in industry a total of 9 countries reported to provide support schemes with a major focus on ammonia production (8) and the chemicals industry (7). On the topic of technology manufacturing 7 countries have reported to have support schemes of which grants emerge as the mainly used method (4). Exploring the latest advancements into European codes and standards relevant to the deployment of hydrogen technologies and infrastructures a total of 11 standards have been revised and developed between January 2022 and September 2023. This includes standards covering the following areas: 6 for fuel cell technologies 2 for gas cylinders 2 for road vehicles and 1 for hydrogen refuelling. Moreover 5 standards were published since September 2023 which will be added to the EHO database in its next update. This includes ISO/TS 19870:2023 which sets a methodology for determining the greenhouse gas emissions associated with the production conditioning and transport of hydrogen to consumption gate. This landmark standard which was unveiled at COP28 aims to act as a foundation for harmonization safety interoperability and sustainability across the hydrogen value chain.
2022 Standards Report
Feb 2022
Publication
Purpose: The standards module of the FCHO (https://www.fchobservatory.eu/observatory/Policyand-RCS/Standards) presents a large number of standards relevant for the deployment of hydrogen and fuel cells. The standards are categorized per application enhancing ease of access and findability. The development of sector-relevant standards facilitate and enhance economies of scale interoperability comparability safety and many other issues. Scope: This report presents the developments in European and international standards for the year 2021 and the start of 2022. Standards from the following standards developing organizations are included: CEN CENELEC ISO IEC OIML. Key Findings: The development of sector relevant standards on an international level continued to grow in 2022; on a European level many standards are still in the process of being drafted. In 2021 & 2022 11 new standards have been published on the subject of fuel cell technologies and safety and measurement protocols of hydrogen technologies. The recently established committee CEN-CLC JTC 6 (Hydrogen in energy systems) has not published standards yet but is working on drafting standards on for example Guarantees of Origin. In the upcoming years multiple standards will be replaced such as the ISO 12619 1-12 set of standards affecting 40% of all collected standards. Previous Reports: The first report was published in September 2020 followed up by a second report in 2021. This report is the 3 rd Annual report.
2022 EU and National Policies Report
Mar 2022
Publication
Purpose: The policy module of the FCHO presents an overview of EU and national policies across various hydrogen and fuel cell related sectors. It provides a snapshot of the current state of hydrogen legislation and policy. Scope: This report covers 34 entities and it reflects data collected January 2022 – February 2022. Key Findings: Hydrogen policies are relatively commonplace among European countries but with large differences between member states. Mobility policies for FCEVs are the most common policy types. EU hydrogen leaders do not lag behind global outliers such as South Korea or Japan.
Future Energy Scenarios 2022
Jul 2022
Publication
Future Energy Scenarios (FES) represent a range of different credible ways to decarbonise our energy system as we strive towards the 2050 target.<br/>We’re less than 30 years away from the Net Zero deadline which isn’t long when you consider investment cycles for gas networks electricity transmission lines and domestic heating systems.<br/>FES has an important role to play in stimulating debate and helping to shape the energy system of the future.
Fuel Cells and Hydrogen Observatory Report: Technology and Market
Mar 2022
Publication
The information in this report covers the period January 2021 – December 2021. The technology and market module of the FCHO presents a range of statistical data as an indicator of the health of the sector and the progress in market development over time. This includes statistical information on the size of the global fuel cell market including number and capacity of fuel cell systems shipped in a calendar year. For this edition data to the end of 2021 is presented where possible alongside analysis of key sector developments. Fuel cell system shipments for each calendar year are presented both as numbers of units and total system megawatts. The data are further divided and subdivided by: Application: Total system shipments are divided into Transport Stationary and Portable applications Fuel cell type: Numbers are provided for each of the different fuel cell chemistry types Region of integration: Region where the final manufacturer – usually the system integrator – integrates the fuel cell into the final product Region of deployment: Region where the final product was shipped to for deployment The data is sourced directly from industry players as well as other relevant sources including press releases associations and other industry bodies. This year the report also includes data relating to electrolysers commissioned within Europe. Information is presented on the number of hydrogen refuelling stations (HRS) deployed since 2014 with detailed information on HRS in operation including pressure capacity etc. In parallel the observatory provides data on the registered fuel cell electric vehicles (FCEVs) on European roads providing an indication of the speed of adoption of hydrogen in the transport sector. This annual report is an enrichment analysis of the data available on the FCHO providing global context and insights on trends observed year-over-year. Electrolyser systems commissioned for each calendar year within Europe are presented as both the number of units and the total system power rating in megawatts (MW). The data is further divided by: Number of Electrolyser Units Commissioned: The number of units brought online each year in Europe from 2000 until 2021. Application: Total systems commissioned are divided in Transport Fuel Industry Feedstock Steel Making Industrial Heat Power Generation Export Grid Injection and Sector Coupling. Electrolyser Type: Number for each of the different electrolyser types commissioned are provided. Region of deployment: Region where the electrolyser was commissioned. All sections in the Technology & Market module are updated following an annual data collection and validation cycle and the annual report is published the following Spring.
Analysis of the European Strategy for Hydrogen: A Comprehensive Review
May 2023
Publication
This review focuses on analysing the strategy and aspirations of the European Union within the hydrogen sector. This aim is achieved through the examination of the European Parliament’s hydrogen strategy allowing for a study of actions and projects in hydrogen technologies. The Parliament’s hydrogen strategy is the document that provides the guideline of how the EU intends to function in the hydrogen sector and manages to cover a wide range of topics all of them significant to represent the entirety of the hydrogen sector. It touches on subjects such as hydrogen demand infrastructure research and standards among others. The review discusses also the aspect that the EU intends to be a leader in the hydrogen sector including the large-scale industrialization of key elements such as electrolysers and this purpose is corroborated by the large number of associations strategies plans and projects that are being established and developed by the European Union. The most important conclusions to learn from this analysis are that hydrogen has many of the right characteristics to make it the key to decarbonisation especially in hard-to-abate sectors and that it is bound to be one of the main actors in the imminent green transition. Moreover hydrogen seems to be having its breakthrough and this field’s development can have benefits not only from an environmental perspective but also from an economical one enabling the way into the green transition and the fight against climate change.
The European Hydrogen Market Landscape
Nov 2023
Publication
This report aims to summarise the status of the European hydrogen market landscape. It is based on the information available at the European Hydrogen Observatory (EHO) platform the leading source of data and information on hydrogen in Europe (EU27 EFTA and the UK) providing a full overview of the hydrogen market and the deployment of clean hydrogen technologies. As of the end of 2022 a total of 476 operational hydrogen production facilities across Europe boasting a cumulative hydrogen production capacity of approximately 11.30 Mt were identified. Notably the largest share of this capacity is contributed by key European countries including Germany the Netherlands Poland Italy and France which collectively account for 56% of the total hydrogen capacity. The hydrogen consumption in Europe has been estimated at approximately 8.23 Mt reflecting an average capacity utilisation rate of 73%. It's worth highlighting that conventional hydrogen production methods encompassing reforming by-product production from ethylene and styrene and by-product electrolysis collectively yield 11.28 Mt of hydrogen capacity. These conventional processes are distributed across 376 production facilities constituting 99.9% of the total production capacity in 2022. Throughout the year 2022 there were no newly commissioned hydrogen production facilities that integrated carbon capture technology into their operations. Additionally a notable presence of water electrolysis-based hydrogen production projects in Europe was identified. There was a total of 97 water electrolysis projects with 67 of them having a minimum capacity of 0.5 MW resulting in a cumulative production capacity of 174.28 MW. Furthermore 46 such projects were found to be under construction and are anticipated to contribute an additional 1199.07 MW of water electrolysis capacity upon becoming operational with the estimated timeframe ranging from January 2023 to 2025. A significant 87% of the total hydrogen production capacity in Europe is dedicated to onsite captive consumption indicating that it is primarily produced and used within the facility. The remaining 13% of capacity is specifically allocated for external distribution and sale characterizing what's known as merchant consumption. Despite the prevailing dominance of captive hydrogen production within Europe it's noteworthy that thousands of metric tonnes of hydrogen are already being traded and distributed across the continent. These transfers often occur through dedicated hydrogen pipelines or transportation via trucks. In 2022 an example of this growing trend was the hydrogen export from Belgium to the Netherlands which emerged as the single most significant hydrogen flow between European countries constituting a substantial 75% of all hydrogen traded in Europe. Belgium earned distinction as Europe's leading hydrogen exporter with 78% of the hydrogen that flowed between European countries originating 6 from its facilities. Conversely the Netherlands played a pivotal role as Europe's primary hydrogen importer accounting for an impressive 76% of the hydrogen imported into the continent. The rise of the clean hydrogen market in Europe coupled with the European Union's ambition to import 10 Mt of renewable hydrogen from non-EU sources by 2030 is expected to drive an increase in hydrogen flows both exports and imports among European countries. In 2022 the total demand for hydrogen in Europe was estimated to be 8.19 Mt. The biggest share of hydrogen demand comes from refineries which were responsible for 57% of total hydrogen use (4.6 Mt) followed by the ammonia industry with 24% (2.0 Mt). Together these two sectors consumed 81% of the total hydrogen consumption in Europe. Clean hydrogen demand while currently making up less than 0.1% of the overall hydrogen demand is notably driven by the mobility sector. Forecasts project an impressive growth trajectory in total hydrogen demand for Europe over the coming decades. Projections show a remarkable 127% surge from 2030 to 2040 followed by a substantial 63% increase from 2040 to 2050. Considering the current hydrogen demand there is a projected 51% increase until 2030. Throughout the three decades under examination the industrial sector is anticipated to maintain its predominant position consistently demonstrating the highest demand for hydrogen. However this conclusion refers to average values and variations that may exist. The total number of Hydrogen Fuel Cell Electric Vehicles (FCEV) registrations in Europe in 2022 was estimated at 1537 units. In comparison to the previous year the number of registrations increased by 31%. This surge in registrations has had a pronounced impact on the overall FCEV fleet's evolution in Europe which increased from 4050 units to 5570 (+38%). Notably passenger cars dominated the landscape constituting 86% of the total FCEV fleet. Exploring the latest advancements in hydrogen infrastructure across Europe in 2022 the hydrogen distribution network comprised spanning a total length of 1569 km. Within Europe the largest networks are situated in Belgium and Germany at 600 km and 400 km respectively. Of particular importance is the cross-border network of France Belgium and the Netherlands spanning a total of 964 km. To keep pace with the rising number of Fuel Cell Electric Vehicles (FCEVs) on European roads and promote their wider integration it is key to ensure sufficient accessibility to refuelling infrastructure. Consequently many countries are endorsing the establishment of hydrogen refuelling stations (HRS) so that they are publicly accessible on a nationwide scale. More recharging and refuelling stations for alternative fuels will be deployed in the coming years across Europe enabling the transport sector to significantly reduce its carbon footprint following the adoption of the alternative fuel infrastructure regulation (AFIR). Part of the regulation's main target is that hydrogen refuelling stations serving both cars and lorries must be deployed from 7 2030 onwards in all urban nodes and every 200 km along the TEN-T core network. Since 2015 the total number of operational and publicly accessible HRS in Europe has grown at an accelerated pace from 38 to 178 by the summer of 2023. Germany takes the lead having the largest share at approximately 54% of the total number of HRS with 96 stations currently operational. The majority of the HRS (89%) are equipped with 700 bar car dispensers. In 2022 the levelized production costs of hydrogen generated through Steam Methane Reforming (SMR) in Europe averaged approximately 6.23 €/kg H2. When incorporating a carbon capture system the average cost of hydrogen production via SMR in Europe increased to 6.38 €/kg H2. Additionally the production costs of hydrogen in Europe for 2022 utilizing grid electricity averaged 9.85 €/kg H2. Hydrogen production costs through electrolysis with a direct connection to a renewable energy source had an average estimated cost of 6.86 €/kg. As of May 2023 Europe's operational water electrolyser manufacturing capacity stands at 3.11 GW/year with an additional 2.64 GW planned by the end of 2023. Alkaline technologies make up 53% of the total capacity. Looking ahead to 2025 ongoing projects are expected to raise the total capacity to 7.65 GW/year. Fuel cell deployment in Europe has showed an increasing trend over the past decade. The total number of shipped fuel cells were forecasted on around 11200 units in 2021 and a total capacity of 190 MW. The most significant increase in capacity occurred between 2018 and the forecast of 2021 (+148.8 MW).
Investment Estimation in the Energy and Power Sector towards Carbon Neutrality Target: A Case Study of China
Mar 2023
Publication
The transition towards low-carbon energy and power has been extensively studied by research institutions and scholars. However the investment demand during the transition process has received insufficient attention. To address this gap an energy investment estimation method is proposed in this paper which takes the unit construction costs and potential development of major technology in the energy and power sector as input. The proposed estimation method can comprehensively assess the investment demand for various energy sources in different years including coal oil natural gas biomass power and hydrogen energy. Specifically we applied this method to estimate the investment demand of China’s energy and power sector from 2020 to 2060 at five year intervals. The results indicate that China’s cumulative energy investment demand over this period is approximately 127 trillion CNY with the power sector accounting for the largest proportion at 92.35% or approximately 117 trillion CNY. The calculated cumulative investment demand is consistent with the findings of several influential research institutions providing validation for the proposed method.
2021 Hydrogen Supply and Demand
Sep 2021
Publication
Purpose: The purpose of the hydrogen supply and demand data stream is to track changes in the structure of hydrogen supply capacity and demand in Europe. This report is mainly focused on presenting the current landscape that will allow for future year-on-year comparisons to assess the progress Europe is making with regards to deployment of clean hydrogen production capacity as well as development of demand for clean hydrogen from emerging new hydrogen applications in industry or mobility sectors. Scope: The following report contains data about hydrogen production capacity and consumption in EU countries together with Switzerland Norway Iceland and the United Kingdom. Hydrogen production capacity is presented by country and by production technology whereas the hydrogen consumption data is presented by country and by end-use sector. The analysis undertaken for this report was completed using data reflecting end of 2019. Key Findings: The current hydrogen market (on both the demand and supply side) is dominated by ammonia and refining industries with three countries (DE NL PL) responsible for almost half of hydrogen consumption. Hydrogen is overwhelmingly produced by reforming of fossil fuels (mostly natural gas). Clean hydrogen production capacities are currently insignificant with hydrogen produced from natural gas coupled with carbon capture at 0.5% and hydrogen produced from water electrolysis at 0.14% of total production capacity.
Future Energy Scenarios 2021
Jul 2022
Publication
Our Future Energy Scenarios (FES) draw on hundreds of experts’ views to model four credible energy pathways for Britain over coming decades. Matthew Wright our head of strategy and regulation outlines what the 2021 outlook means for consumers society and the energy system itself.<br/>This year’s Future Energy Scenarios insight reveals a glimpse of a Britain that is powered with net zero carbon emissions.<br/>Our analysis shows that our country can achieve its legally-binding carbon reduction targets: in three out of four scenarios in the analysis the country reaches net zero carbon emissions by 2050 with Leading the Way – our most ambitious scenario – achieving it in 2047 and becoming net negative by 2050.
The UK Hydrogen Innovation Opportunity: UK Capabilities
Apr 2024
Publication
The UK is not ‘starting from zero’. We have an accelerating base of hydrogen technology supply chain companies a world-class scientific base and an array of demonstration projects.
The need is to prioritise and coordinate investment to build and scale hydrogen supply chains serving multiple markets domestically and internationally. This report provides an overview of UK capability in hydrogen technologies. It has been produced as a supporting report to The UK Hydrogen Innovation Opportunity.
This report can also be downloaded for free on the Hydrogen Innovation Initiative website.
The need is to prioritise and coordinate investment to build and scale hydrogen supply chains serving multiple markets domestically and internationally. This report provides an overview of UK capability in hydrogen technologies. It has been produced as a supporting report to The UK Hydrogen Innovation Opportunity.
This report can also be downloaded for free on the Hydrogen Innovation Initiative website.
Energy Transition Strategies in the Gulf Cooperation Council Countries
Sep 2024
Publication
During the last two decades Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries have seen their population economies and energy production growing steeply with a substantial increase in Gross Domestic Product. As a result of this growth GCC consumption-based carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions increased from 540.79 Metric tons of CO2 equivalent (MtCO2) in 2003 to 1090.93 MtCO2 in 2020. The assumptions and strategies that have driven energy production in the past are now being recast to achieve a more sustainable economic development. The aim of this study is to review and analyze ongoing energy transition strategies that characterize this change to identify challenges and opportunities for bolstering the effectiveness of current strategic orientations. The ensuing analysis shows that since COP26 GCC countries have been pursuing a transition away from carbon-based energy policies largely characterized by the adoption of solar PV with other emerging technologies including energy storage carbon capture and hydrogen generation and storage. While as of 2022 renewable energy adoption in the GCC only represented 0.15 % of global installed capacity GCC countries are making strong efforts to achieve their declared 2030 energy targets that average about 26 % with peaks of 50 % in Saudi Arabia and 30 % in the UAE and Oman. With reference to solar energy plans are afoot to add 42.1 GW of solar photovoltaics and concentrated solar power which will increase 8-fold the current installed renewable capacity (5.1 GW). At the same time oil and gas production rates remain stable and fossil fuel subsidies have grown in the last few years. Also there is a marked preference for the deployment of CCUS and utility-scale solar energy technology vs. distributed solar energy energy efficiency and nature-based solutions. The pursuit of energy transition in the GCC will require increased efforts in the latter and other overlooked strategic endeavors to achieve a more balanced portfolio of sustainable energy solutions with stronger emphasis on energy efficiency (as long as rebound effects are mitigated) and nature-based solutions. Increased efforts are also needed in promoting governance practices aimed to institutionalize regulatory frameworks incentives and cooperation activities that promote the reduction of fossil fuel subsidies and the transition away from fossil fuels.
Is Green Hydrogen an Environmentally and Socially Sound Solution for Decarbonizing Energy Systems Within a Circular Economy Transition?
May 2025
Publication
Green hydrogen (GH2) is expected to play an important role in future energy systems in their fight against climate change. This study after briefly recalling how GH2 is produced and the main steps throughout its life cycle analyses its current development environmental and social impacts and a series of case studies from selected literature showing its main applications as fuel in transportation and electricity sectors as a heat producer in high energy intensive industries and residential and commercial buildings and as an industrial feedstock for the production of other chemical products. The results show that the use of GH2 in the three main areas of application has the potential of contributing to the decarbonization goals although its generation of non-negligible impacts in other environmental categories requires attention. However the integration of circular economy (CE) principles is important for the mitigation of these impacts. In social terms the complexity of the value chain of GH2 generates social impacts well beyond countries where GH2 is produced and used. This aspect makes the GH2 value chain complex and difficult to trace somewhat undermining its renewability claims as well as its expected localness that the CE model is centred around.
Lower-Carbon Substitutes for Natural Gas for Use in Energy-Intensive Industries: Current Status and Techno-Economic Assessment in Lithuania
May 2025
Publication
Significant shortfalls in meeting the climate mitigation targets and volatile energy markets make evident the need for an urgent transition from fossil fuels to sustainable alternatives. However the integration of zero-carbon fuels like green hydrogen and ammonia is an immense project and will take time and the construction of new infrastructure. It is during this transitional period that lower-carbon natural gas alternatives are essential. In this study the industrial sectors of Lithuania are analysed based on their energy consumption. The industrial sectors that are the most energy-intensive are food chemical and wood-product manufacturing. Synthetic natural gas (SNG) has become a viable substitute and biomethane has also become viable given a feedstock price of 21 EUR/MWh in the twelfth year of operation and 24 EUR/MWh in the eighth year assuming an electricity price of 140 EUR/MWh and a natural gas price of 50 EUR/MWh. Nevertheless the scale of investment in hydrogen production is comparable to the scale of investment in the production of other chemical elements; however hydrogen production is constrained by its high electricity demand—about 3.8 to 4.4 kWh/Nm3—which makes it economically viable only at negative electricity prices. This analysis shows the techno-economic viability of biomethane and the SNG as transition pathways towards a low-carbon energy future.
Public Acceptance of the Underground Storage of Hydrogen: Lessons Learned from the Geological Storage of CO2
Mar 2025
Publication
The successful commercialisation of underground hydrogen storage (UHS) is contingent upon technological readiness and social acceptance. A lack of social acceptance inadequate policies/regulations an unreliable business case and environmental uncertainty have the potential to delay or prevent UHS commercialisation even in cases where it is ready. The technologies utilised for underground hydrogen and carbon dioxide storage are analogous. The differences lie in the types of gases stored and the purpose of their storage. It is anticipated that the challenges related to public acceptance will be analogous in both cases. An assessment was made of the possibility of transferring experiences related to the social acceptance of CO2 sequestration to UHS based on an analysis of relevant articles from indexed journals. The analysis enabled the identification of elements that can be used and incorporated into the social acceptance of UHS. A framework was identified that supports the assessment and implementation of factors determining social acceptance ranging from conception to demonstration to implementation. These factors include education communication stakeholder involvement risk assessment policy and regulation public trust benefits research and demonstration programmes and social embedding. Implementing these measures has the potential to increase acceptance and facilitate faster implementation of this technology.
A Multi-State Rotational Control Strategy for Hydrogen Production Systems Based on Hybrid Electrolyzers
Apr 2025
Publication
Harnessing surplus wind and solar energy for water electrolysis boosts the efficiency of renewable energy utilization and supports the development of a low-carbon energy framework. However the intermittent and unpredictable nature of wind and solar power generation poses significant challenges to the dynamic stability and hydrogen production efficiency of electrolyzers. This study introduces a multi-state rotational control strategy for a hybrid electrolyzer system designed to produce hydrogen. Through a detailed examination of the interplay between electrolyzer power and efficiency—along with operational factors such as load range and startup/shutdown times—six distinct operational states are categorized under three modes. Taking into account the differing dynamic response characteristics of proton exchange membrane electrolyzers (PEMEL) and alkaline electrolyzers (AEL) a power-matching mechanism is developed to optimize the performance of these two electrolyzer types under varied and complex conditions. This mechanism facilitates coordinated scheduling and seamless transitions between operational states within the hybrid system. Simulation results demonstrate that compared to the traditional sequential startup and shutdown approach the proposed strategy increases hydrogen production by 10.73% for the same input power. Moreover it reduces the standard deviation and coefficient of variation in operating duration under rated conditions by 27.71 min and 47.04 respectively thereby enhancing both hydrogen production efficiency and the dynamic operational stability of the electrolyzer cluster.
Green Tides: The Suez Canal as Key Hub and Green Corridor for a Hydrogen Future Between the Middle East and Europe
Feb 2025
Publication
The shipping industry faces the dual challenge of reducing emissions to meet net-zero targets by 2050 and transporting green energy sources like hydrogen and its derivatives. Green shipping corridors provide experimental routes for lowcarbon solutions with the Suez Canal uniquely positioned to lead. This paper examines the canal’s evolving role as a dynamic energy space where diverse actors and networks intersect shaping spatial power relations and aligning with green capitalism interests. It explores the Suez Canal’s potential to serve as a model for hydrogen initiatives and its capacity to influence global energy governance and geopolitical dynamics in the transition to a sustainable shipping future. The canal also represents a microcosm of broader global shifts toward a future hydrogen economy where numerous stakeholders vie for power and influence.
Potential Financing Mechanisms for Green Hydrogen Development in Sub-Saharan Africa
Aug 2025
Publication
Green hydrogen is gaining global attention as a zero-carbon energy carrier with the potential to drive sustainable energy transitions particularly in regions facing rising fossil fuel costs and resource depletion. In sub-Saharan Africa financing mechanisms and structured off-take agreements are critical to attracting investment across the green hydrogen value chain from advisory and pilot stages to full-scale deployment. While substantial funding is required to support a green economic transition success will depend on the effective mobilization of capital through smart public policies and innovative financial instruments. This review evaluates financing mechanisms relevant to sub-Saharan Africa including green bonds public–private partnerships foreign direct investment venture capital grants and loans multilateral and bilateral funding and government subsidies. Despite their potential current capital flows remain insufficient and must be significantly scaled up to meet green energy transition targets. This study employs a mixed-methods approach drawing on primary data from utility firms under the H2Atlas-Africa project and secondary data from international organizations and the peer-reviewed literature. The analysis identifies that transitioning toward Net-Zero emissions economies through hydrogen development in sub-Saharan Africa presents both significant opportunities and measurable risks. Specifically the results indicate an estimated investment risk factor of 35% reflecting potential challenges such as financing infrastructure and policy readiness. Nevertheless the findings underscore that green hydrogen is a viable alternative to fossil fuels in subSaharan Africa particularly if supported by targeted financing strategies and robust policy frameworks. This study offers practical insights for policymakers financial institutions and development partners seeking to structure bankable projects and accelerate green hydrogen adoption across the region.
Green Hydrogen in the European Union - A Large-scale Assessment of the Supply Potential and Economic Viability
Aug 2025
Publication
Demand for hydrogen is expected to increase in the coming years to defossilize hard-to-abate sectors. In the European Union the question remains in which quantities and at what cost hydrogen can be produced to satisfy the growing demand. This paper applies different approaches to model costs and potentials of off-grid hydrogen production within the European Union. The modeled approaches distinguish the effects of different spatial and technological resolutions on hydrogen production potentials costs and prices. According to the results the hydrogen potential within the European Union is above 6800 TWh. This figure far surpasses the expected demand range of 1423 to 1707 TWh in 2050. The cost of satisfying the demand exceeds 100 billion euro at marginal costs of hydrogen below 85 euro per megawatt-hour. Additionally the results show that an integrated European Union market would reduce the overall system costs notably compared to a setup in which each country covers its own hydrogen demand domestically. Just a few countries would be able to supply the entire European Union’s hydrogen demand in the case of an integrated market. This finding leads to the conclusion that an international hydrogen infrastructure seems advantageous.
Analysis of Hydrogen Network Tariffs in Relation to an Initially Reduced and Delayed Expansion of the German Hydrogen Network
Jun 2025
Publication
This study examines the economic and regulatory implications of the development of Germany’s hydrogen core network. Using a mathematical-economic model of the amortization account and a reproduction of the network topology based on the German transmission system operators’ draft proposals the analysis evaluates the impact of delaying the network expansion with completion postponed from 2032 to 2037. The proposed phased approach prioritizes geographically clustered regions and ensures sufficient demand alignment during each expansion stage. The results demonstrate that strategic adjustments to the network size and timing significantly enhance cost-efficiency. In the initially reduced and delayed scenario uncapped network tariffs remain below €15/ kWh/h/a suggesting that under specific conditions the amortization account may become redundant while maintaining supply security and supporting the market ramp-up of hydrogen. These findings highlight the potential for demand-driven phased hydrogen infrastructure development to reduce financial burdens and foster a sustainable transition to a hydrogen-based energy system.
Pathways to 100% Renewable Energy in Island Systems: A Systematic Review of Challenges, Solutions Strategies, and Success Cases
May 2025
Publication
The transition to 100% renewable energy systems is critical for achieving global sustainability and reducing dependence on fossil fuels. Island power systems due to their geographical isolation limited interconnectivity and reliance on imported fuels face unique challenges in this transition. These systems’ vulnerability to supply–demand imbalances voltage instability and frequency deviations necessitates tailored strategies for achieving grid stability. This study conducts a systematic review of the technical and operational challenges associated with transitioning island energy systems to fully renewable generation following the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and MetaAnalyses (PRISMA) methodology. Out of 991 identified studies 81 high-quality articles were selected focusing on key aspects such as grid stability energy storage technologies and advanced control strategies. The review highlights the importance of energy storage solutions like battery energy storage systems hydrogen storage pumped hydro storage and flywheels in enhancing grid resilience and supporting frequency and voltage regulation. Advanced control strategies including grid-forming and grid-following inverters as well as digital twins and predictive analytics emerged as effective in maintaining grid efficiency. Real-world case studies from islands such as El Hierro Hawai’i and Nusa Penida illustrate successful strategies and best practices emphasizing the role of supportive policies and community engagement. While the findings demonstrate that fully renewable island systems are technically and economically feasible challenges remain including regulatory financial and policy barriers.
What Will it Take to Get to Net-zero Emissions in California?
Sep 2025
Publication
In this work a new modeling tool called DECAL (DEcarbonize CALifornia) is developed and used to evaluate what it will take to reach California’s climate mandate of net-zero emissions by 2045. DECAL is a scenario-based model that projects emissions society-wide costs and resource consumption in response to user-defined inputs. DECAL has sufficient detail to model true net-zero pathways and reveal fine-grain technology insights. Using DECAL we find the State can achieve 52 % of the emissions abatement needed to meet net-zero by 2045 using technologies that are already commercially available such as electric vehicles heat pumps and renewable electricity & storage. While these technologies are mature the speed and scale of deployment required will still pose significant practical challenges if not technical ones. In addition we find that 25 % of emissions abatement will come from technologies currently at early-stage deployment and 23 % from technologies at research scale motivating the continued research & development of these technologies including zero-emission heavy-duty vehicles carbon capture & sequestration clean industrial heating low global warming potential refrigerants and direct air capture. Significant carbon dioxide removal will also be needed for California to meet its net-zero target on time at least 45 Mt/yr and more likely up to 75 Mt/yr by 2045. Accelerating deployment of mature technologies can further reduce the need for carbon removal nevertheless establishing enforceable carbon removal targets and conducting policy planning to make said goals a reality will be needed if California is to meet its net-zero by 2045 goal.
Modelling Hydrogen Storage Requirements to Balance the Future Western Australian Grid
Sep 2025
Publication
Increasing renewable energy technology penetration into electrical grids to meet net zero CO2 emission targets is a key challenge in terms of intermittency; one solution is the provision of sufficient energy storage. In the current study we considered future projections of electrical demand and renewable energy (in 2042) for the Southwest Interconnected System grid in Western Australia. Required energy storage considered is a mixture of battery energy storage systems and underground hydrogen storage in a depleted gas reservoir. The Southwest Interconnected System serves as an excellent case study given that it is a comparatively large isolated grid with substantial potential access to renewable energy resources as well as potential underground hydrogen storage sites. This work utilised a dynamic energy model that summates the wind and solar energy resources on an hourly basis. Excess energy utilised battery energy storage systems capacity first followed by underground hydrogen storage. The relative size of the renewables and the storage options is then optimised in terms of minimising wholesale energy production costs. This unique optimisation analysis across the full integrated system clearly indicated that both battery energy storage systems and underground hydrogen storage are required; underground hydrogen storage is predominately necessary to meet seasonal unmet energy demand that amounts to approximately 6% of total demand. Underground hydrogen storage costs were dominated by the required electrolyser requirements. The optimised levelised cost of electricity was found to be US$106/MWh which is approximately 45% larger than current wholesale electricity prices.
The Development Trend of and Suggestions for China's Hydrogen Energy Industry
Jul 2021
Publication
Driven by the current round of technological revolution and industrial transformation and based on a consensus among countries around the world the world’s energy landscape is undergoing profound adjustments to promote a transition to clean low-carbon energy in order to cope with global climate change. As a clean and carbon-free secondary energy source hydrogen energy is an important component of the energy strategy in various countries. Fuel cell technology is also of great importance in directing the current global energy technology revolution. China has clarified its sustainable energy goals: to peak its carbon dioxide emissions [1] and achieve carbon neutrality [2]. With thorough development of technology and the industry hydrogen energy will play a significant role in achieving these goals.
Fast Enough? The Consequences of Delayed Renewable Energy Expansion on European Hydrogen Import Needs
Aug 2025
Publication
This study investigates the impact of delayed and accelerated expansion of the volatile renewable energy sources (vRES) onshore wind offshore wind and photovoltaics on Europe’s (EU27 United Kingdom Norway and Switzerland) demand for hydrogen imports and its derivatives to meet demand from final energy consumption sectors and to comply with European greenhouse gas (GHG) emission targets. Using the multi-energy system model ISAaR we analyze fourteen scenarios with different levels of vRES expansion including an evaluation of the resulting hydrogen prices. The load-weighted average European hydrogen price in the BASE scenario decreases from 4.1 €/kg in 2030 to 3.3 €/kg by 2050. Results show that delaying the expansion of vRES significantly increases the demand for imports of hydrogen and its derivatives and thus increases the risk of not meeting GHG emission targets for two reasons: (1) higher import volumes to meet GHG emission targets increase dependence on third parties and lead to higher risk in terms of security of supply; (2) at the same time lower vRES expansion in combination with higher import volumes leads to higher resulting hydrogen prices which in turn affects the economic viability of the energy transition. In contrast an accelerated expansion of vRES reduces dependency on imports and stabilizes hydrogen prices below 3 €/kg in 2050 which increases planning security for hydrogen off-takers. The study underlines the importance of timely and strategic progress in the expansion of vRES and investment in hydrogen production storage and transport networks to minimize dependence on imports and effectively meet the European climate targets.
The UAE Net-Zero Strategy—Aspirations, Achievements and Lessons for the MENA Region
Aug 2025
Publication
The Middle East and North Africa region has not played a major role in climate action so far and several countries depend economically on fossil fuel exports. However this is a region with vast solar energy resources which can be exploited affordably for power generation and hydrogen production at scale to eventually reach carbon neutrality. In this paper we elaborate on the case of the United Arab Emirates and explore the aspirations and feasibility of its net-zero by 2050 target. While we affirm the concept per se we also highlight the technological complexity and economic dimensions that accompany such transformation. We expect the UAE’s electricity demand to triple between today and 2050 and the annual green hydrogen production is expected to reach 3.5 Mt accounting for over 40% of the electricity consumption. Green hydrogen will provide power-to-fuel solutions for aviation maritime transport and hard-to-abate industries. At the same time electrification will intensify—most importantly in road transport and low-temperature heat demands. The UAE can meet its future electricity demands primarily with solar power followed by natural gas power plants with carbon capture utilization and storage while the role of nuclear power in the long term is unclear at this stage.
Stakeholder and Techno-Economic Assessment of Iceland’s Green Hydrogen Economy
Mar 2025
Publication
Green hydrogen is a promising energy carrier for the decarbonization of hard-toabate sectors and supporting renewable energy integration aligning with carbon neutrality goals like the European Green Deal. Iceland’s abundant renewable energy and decarbonized electricity system position it as a strong candidate for green hydrogen production. Despite early initiatives its hydrogen economy has yet to significantly expand. This study evaluated Iceland’s hydrogen development through stakeholder interviews and a techno-economic analysis of alkaline and PEM electrolyzers. Stakeholders were driven by decarbonization goals economic opportunities and energy security but faced technological economic and governance challenges. Recommendations include building stakeholder confidence financial incentives and creating hydrogen-based chemicals to boost demand. Currently alkaline electrolyzers are more cost-effective (EUR 1.5–2.8/kg) than PEMs (EUR 2.1–3.6/kg) though the future costs for both could drop below EUR 1.5/kg. Iceland’s low electricity costs and high electrolyzer capacity provide a competitive edge. However this advantage may shrink as solar and wind costs decline globally particularly in regions like Australia. This work’s findings emphasize the need for strategic planning to sustain competitiveness and offer transferable insights for other regions introducing hydrogen into ecosystems lacking infrastructure.
Superconductivity and Hydrogen Economy: A Roadmap to Synergy
Aug 2022
Publication
Hydrogen as an energy carrier is a promising alternative to fossil fuels and it becomes more and more popular in developed countries as a carbon-free fuel. The low boiling temperature of hydrogen (20 K or −253.15 ◦C) provides a unique opportunity to implement superconductors with a critical temperature above 20 K such as MgB2 or high-temperature superconductors. Superconductors increase efficiency and reduce the loss of energy which could compensate for the high price of LH2 to some extent. Norway is one of the pioneer countries with adequate infrastructure for using liquid hydrogen in the industry especially in marine technology where a superconducting propulsion system can make a remarkable impact on its economy. Using superconductors in the motor of a propulsion system can increase its efficiency from 95% to 98% when the motor operates at full power. The difference in efficiency is even greater when the motor does not work at full power. Here we survey the applications of liquid hydrogen and superconductors and propose a realistic roadmap for their synergy specifically for the Norwegian economy in the marine industry.
Large Scale Power-to-X Production Enabling Hydrogen Valleys: A Case Study of Future Industrial Hydrogen Valley Opportunity in Finland
Mar 2025
Publication
Many industrial processes such as ammonia fuel or steel production require considerable amounts of fossil feedstocks contributing significantly to global greenhouse gas emissions. Some of these fossil feedstocks and processes can be decarbonised via Power-to-X (P2X) production concepts based on hydrogen (H2) requiring considerable amounts of renewable electricity. Creating hydrogen valleys (HV) may facilitate a cost-efficient H2 production feeding H2 to multiple customers and purposes. At a large scale these HVs will shift from price takers to price makers in the local electricity market strongly affecting investments in renewable electricity. This paper analysed the dynamic evolution of a HV up to GW-scale by adopting a stepwise approach to HV development in North Ostrobothnia Finland considering multiple H₂ end uses such as P2X fuel manufacturing including ammonia methanol liquefied methane and H2 for mobility. The analysis was conducted by employing a dynamic linear optimization model “SmartP2X” to minimize LCOH within the HV boundaries. The analysis predicts that with ex-factory sales prices that are equal to or higher than marginal costs for P2X fuels production a LCOH of 3.4–3.9 EUR/kgH2 could be reached. The LCOH slightly increased with the size of the HV due to a H2 transmission pipeline investment; omitting the pipeline cost the LCOH exhibited a decreasing trend. The produced H2 will generally meet the EU definitions for clean Renewable Fuel of Non-Biological Origin (RFNBO). The additional wind power required for the HV scenarios was up to 2.1–3.0 GW depending on the RFNBO-fuel sales price. This represents a fraction of the current investment plans in the North Ostrobothnia region. The results of this paper contribute to the discussion on the interplay between hydrogen ecosystems and the power market particularly in relation to power-intensive P2X processes.
Thermodynamic Integration in Combined Fuel and Power Plants Producing Low Carbon Hydrogen and Power with CCUS
Dec 2024
Publication
Demand for low-carbon sources of hydrogen and power is expected to rise dramatically in the coming years. Individually steam methane reformers (SMRs) and combined cycle gas power plants (CCGTs) when combined with carbon capture utilisation and storage (CCUS) can produce large quantities of ondemand decarbonised hydrogen and power respectively. The ongoing trend towards the development of CCUS clusters means that both processes may operate in close proximity taking advantage of a common infrastructure for natural gas supply electricity grid connection and the CO2 transport and storage network. This work improves on a previously described novel integration process which utilizes flue gas sequential combustion to incorporate the SMR process into the CCGT cycle in a single “combined fuel and power” (CFP) plant by increasing the level of thermodynamic integration through the merger of the steam cycles and a redesign of the heat recovery system. This increases the 2nd law thermal efficiency by 2.6% points over un-integrated processes and 1.9% points the previous integration design. Using a conventional 35% wt. monoethanolamine (MEA) CO2 capture process designed to achieve two distinct and previously unexplored CO2 capture fractions; 95% gross and 100% fossil (CO2 generated is equal to the quantity of CO2 captured). The CFP configuration reduces the overall quantity of flue gas to be processed by 36%–37% and increases the average CO2 concentration of the flue gas to be treated from 9.9% to 14.4% (wet). This decreases the absorber packing volume requirements by 41%–56% and decreases the specific reboiler duty by 5.5% from 3.46–3.67 GJ/tCO2 to 3.27–3.46 GJ/tCO2 further increasing the 2nd law thermal efficiency gains to 3.8%–4.4% points over the un-integrated case. A first of a kind techno economic analysis concludes that the improvements present in a CO2 abated CFP plant results in a 15.1%–17.3% and 7.6%–8.0% decrease in capital and operational expenditure respectively for the CO2 capture cases. This translates to an increase in the internal rate of return over the base hurdle rate of 7.5%–7.8% highlighting the potential for substantial cost reductions presented by the CFP configuration.
Providing Solutions to Decarbonize Energy-Intensive Industries for a Sustainable Future in Egypt by 2050
Mar 2025
Publication
Around 75% of worldwide greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions are generated by the combustion of fossil fuels (FFs) for energy production. Tackling climate change requires a global shift away from FF reliance and the decarbonization of energy systems. The energy manufacturing and construction sectors contribute a significant portion of Egypt’s total GHG emissions largely due to the reliance on fossil fuels in energy-intensive industries (EIIs). Decarbonizing these sectors is essential to achieve Egypt’s sustainable development goals improve air quality and create a resilient low-carbon economy. This paper examines practical scalable solutions to decarbonize energy-intensive industries in Egypt focusing on implementing renewable energy sources (RESs) enhancing energy efficiency and integrating new technologies such as carbon capture utilization and storage (CCUS) and green hydrogen (GH). We also explore the policy incentives and economic drivers that can facilitate these changes as the government aims to achieve net-zero GHG emissions for a sustainable transition by 2050.
Participatory Mapping of Local Green Hydrogen Cost-potentials in Sub-Saharan Africa
Mar 2025
Publication
C. Winkler,
Heidi Heinrichs,
S. Ishmam,
B. Bayat,
Amin Lahnaoui,
Solomon Nwabueze Agbo,
E.U. Pena Sanchez,
David Franzmann,
N. Oijeabou,
C. Koerner,
Y. Michael,
B. Oloruntoba,
C. Montzka,
H. Vereecken,
H. Hendricks Franssen,
J. Brendt,
S. Brauner,
Wilhelm Kuckshinrichs,
S. Venghaus,
Daouda Kone,
Bruno Korgo,
Kehinde Olufunso Ogunjobi,
Jane Olwoch,
V. Chiteculo,
Z. Getenga,
Jochen Linßen and
Detlef Stolten
Green hydrogen is a promising solution within carbon free energy systems with Sub-Saharan Africa being a possibly well-suited candidate for its production. However green hydrogen production in Sub-Saharan Africa is not yet investigated in detail. This work determines the cost-potential for green hydrogen production within this region. Therefore a potential analysis for PV wind and hydropower groundwater analysis and energy systems optimization are conducted. The results are evaluated under local socio-economic factors. Results show that hydrogen costs start at 1.6 EUR/kg in Mauritania with a total potential of ~259 TWh/a under 2 EUR/kg in 2050. Two third of the region experience groundwater limitations and need desalination at an added costs of ~1% of hydrogen costs. Socio-economic analysis show that green hydrogen deployment can be hindered along the Upper Guinea Coast and the African Great Lakes driven by limited energy access low labor costs in West Africa and high labor potential in other regions.
Everything About Hydrogen Podcast: LIFTE OFF! Expanding the Hydrogen Market to it's Next Step
Jul 2023
Publication
This week the EAH team discusses LIFTE H2’s plans for the future and discusses the challenges in hydrogen markets expansion and rollout the need for resiliency for offtakers and how to build consumer confidence.
The podcast can be found on their website.
The podcast can be found on their website.
Quantifying Key Economic Uncertainties in the Cost of Trading Green Hydrogen
Mar 2025
Publication
In a fully decarbonized global energy system hydrogen is likely to be one of few energy vectors that can facilitate long-distance export of renewable energy. However because of divergent literature findings consensus is yet to be reached on the total supply chain costs of shipping hydrogen either as a cryogenic liquid or ammonia. To this end this article presents a detailed process systems-based economic analysis of a typical hydrogen value chain in 2050 employing the method of elementary effects to quantify the effect of uncertainties. With expected landed costs for liquid hydrogen of $4.60 kg1 (H2) and ammonia of $3.30 kg1 (H2) the importance of uncertainty quantification is demonstrated given that specific parametric combinations can yield landed costs below $2.50 kg1 (H2). Given our delivered hydrogen cost of $4.70 kg1 (H2) these results demonstrate the stark difference between the aspirations of decarbonization policy (with some countries aiming for prices below $1 kg1 by 2050) and the present techno-economic reality.
An Overview of the Green Hydrogen Value Chain Technologies and Their Challenges for a Net-Zero Future
Apr 2025
Publication
As hydrogen emerges as a pivotal energy carrier in the global transition towards net-zero emissions addressing its technological and regulatory challenges is essential for large-scale deployment. The widespread adoption of hydrogen technologies requires extensive research technical advancements validation testing and certification to ensure their efficiency reliability and safety across various applications including industrial processes power generation and transportation. This study provides an overview of key enabling technologies for green hydrogen production and distribution highlighting the critical challenges that must be overcome to facilitate their widespread adoption. It examines key hydrogen use cases across multiple sectors analysing their associated technical and infrastructural challenges. The technological advancements required to improve hydrogen production storage transportation and end-use applications are discussed. The development of state-of-the-art testing and validation facilities is also assessed as these are vital for ensuring safety performance and regulatory compliance. This work also reviews some of the ongoing academic and industrial initiatives in the UK aimed at promoting technological innovation advancing hydrogen expertise and developing world-class testing infrastructures. This study emphasises the need for stronger more integrated collaboration between universities industries and certifying bodies for building a strong network that promotes knowledge sharing standardisation and innovation for expanding hydrogen solutions and creating a sustainable hydrogen economy.
Advances, Progress, and Future Directions of Renewable Wind Energy in Brazil (2000–2025–2050)
May 2025
Publication
Brazil has emerged as one of the global leaders in adopting renewable energy standing out in the implementation of onshore wind energy and more recently in the development of future offshore wind energy projects. Onshore wind energy has experienced exponential growth in the last decade positioning Brazil as one of the countries with the largest installed capacity in the world by 2023 with 30 GW. Wind farms are mainly concentrated in the northeast region where winds are constant and powerful enabling efficient and cost-competitive generation. Although in its early stages offshore wind energy presents significant potential of 1228 GW due to Brazil’s extensive coastline which exceeds 7000 km. Offshore wind projects promise greater generating capacity and stability as offshore winds are more constant than onshore winds. However their development faces challenges such as high initial costs environmental impacts on marine ecosystems and the need for specialized infrastructure. From a sustainability perspective this article discusses that both types of wind energy are key to Brazil’s energy transition. They reduce dependence on fossil fuels generate green jobs and foster technological innovation. However it is crucial to implement policies that foster synergy with green hydrogen production and minimize socio-environmental impacts such as impacts on local communities and biodiversity. Finally the article concludes that by 2050 Brazil is expected to consolidate its leadership in renewable energy by integrating advanced technologies such as larger more efficient turbines energy storage systems and green hydrogen production. The combination of onshore and offshore wind energy and other renewable sources could position the country as a global model for a clean sustainable and resilient energy mix.
Current Challenges to Achieving Mass-Market Hydrogen Mobility from the Perspective of Early Adopters in South Korea
Mar 2025
Publication
Hydrogen mobility is expected to be a crucial element in decarbonizing fossil fuel-based transportation. In South Korea hydrogen mobility has successfully formed an early market led by fuel cell passenger cars under strong support policies. Nevertheless the fuel cell vehicle (FCV) market is still in its infancy and current challenges must be overcome to achieve mass-market adoption. This study aims to identify the current challenges in the diffusion of FCVs in Korea. We identified the key challenges facing FCVs from a consumer perspective with data from the latest FCV customer survey. The data were applied to estimate ordered logit models of fuel cell car satisfaction and purchase intention. Significant challenges in Korea were identified from the perspective of vehicles infrastructure and renewable energy. Vehicle-related challenges include concerns about vehicle durability such as recalls and repairs and maintenance and repair costs. Infrastructure-related challenges include the fueling accessibility and fueling failures due to hydrogen refueling station facility failures or hydrogen supply problems. Challenges related to renewable energy include the low proportion of hydrogen from renewable sources. To achieve the large-scale diffusion of FCVs it is important to maintain support policies and attract new FCV demand such as long-distance heavy-duty vehicles.
Overall Strategic Analysis of Clean Energy Technology in the European Union
Jan 2025
Publication
This report by the Clean Energy Technology Observatory (CETO) provides an updated strategic analysis of the EU clean energy technology sector. The EU's renewable share in gross final energy consumption rose to 24.5% in 2023 and to 44.7% of gross electricity consumption. The electrification rate however has remained almost unchanged at 26% over the decade to 2023 indicating slow progress on decarbonisation of transport and heating sectors. The EU renewable energy industry saw growth in turnover and gross value added in 2023 outperforming the overall economy. However the production value of clean energy technologies declined in some areas such as bioenergy PV and hydrogen electrolyser production. EU public investment in energy research and innovation has increased but it remains lower as a share of GDP compared to other major economies. Employment in the renewable energy sector reached 1.7 million in 2022 growing at a faster rate than the economy as a whole. The clean energy sector however faces challenges in manufacturing. A new sustainability assessment framework has been applied for clean energy technologies highlighting the need for a harmonized basis for comparing results. The report also underscores the general need to improve data quality and timeliness to better inform policy makers and investors.
Assessing the Competitiveness and Trade-offs of National Hydrogen Strategies in the Maghreb: TIMES Scenario-based Analysis
Jun 2025
Publication
North Africa’s Maghreb countries Morocco Tunisia and Algeria aim to become key players in the global green hydrogen market. However rising hydrogen demand challenges their ability to balance domestic decarbonization efforts with export ambitions. This study assesses the techno-economic trade-offs between national hydrogen targets and export goals evaluating their alignment with climate commitments using the TIMES-MAGe model. Five scenarios explore variations in electrolysis energy sourcing (renewables vs. grid) and water supply (surface vs. desalinated) under both local-only and export-oriented strategies. Results show that while exportdriven hydrogen production is feasible it imposes significant economic and resource burdens. By 2050 exports sharply increase hydrogen production costs electricity prices investment needs and water use. The competitiveness of renewable electricity is weakened as most renewable electricity is allocated to hydrogen exports constraining domestic decarbonization. Intra-regional hydrogen trade is less cost-effective than domestic supply with pipeline repurposing offering the most viable trade option. The findings inform future policy for cost-effective hydrogen development.
Investment Needs of European Energy Infrastructure to Enable a Decarbonised Economy
Jan 2025
Publication
The aim of this project is to identify the investment requirements for energy infrastructure across each TEN-E infrastructure category as well as for non-TEN-E electricity transmission and distribution infrastructure in order to enable a decarbonised economy in the EU. It also evaluates the need for EU financial support and explores possible forms of EU funding to address the identified needs within the scope of this study's assessment.
Hydrogen Production via Direct Seawater Electrolyisis, Literature Review
Jan 2025
Publication
Seawater electrolysis is a promising approach for sustainable hydrogen production that could alleviate the ever-growing demand for freshwater resources. This literature review synthesizes current research on direct seawater electrolysis drawing attention to advances in electrode materials catalyst efficiency and system design. Furthermore an overview of indirect seawater electrolysis is given as a benchmark. Key challenges including electrode corrosion chlorine evolution and energy efficiency are critically analysed. Recent innovations in selective catalysts and membrane technologies are discussed as potential solutions for such challenges. The review also evaluates the economic feasibility of direct seawater electrolysis compared with the established traditional electrolysis using desalinated water. There is currently no research or industrial project demonstrating clear benefits of using direct seawater electrolysis over indirect seawater electrolysis. Our findings however do suggest that direct seawater electrolysis can become a viable component of the hydrogen economy for specific target applications.
The Role of Hydrogen in Integrated Assessment Models: A Review of Recent Developments
Mar 2025
Publication
Hydrogen is emerging as a crucial energy source in the global effort to reduce dependence on fossil fuels and meet climate goals. Integrating hydrogen into Integrated Assessment Models (IAMs) is essential for understanding its potential and guiding policy decisions. These models simulate various energy scenarios assess hydrogen’s impact on emissions and evaluate its economic viability. However uncertainties surrounding hydrogen technologies must be effectively addressed in their modeling. This review examines how different IAMs incorporate hydrogen technologies and their implications for decarbonization strategies and policy development considering underlying uncertainties. We begin by analyzing the configuration of the hydrogen supply chain focusing on production logistics distribution and utilization. The modeling characteristics of hydrogen integration in 12 IAM families are explored emphasizing hydrogen’s growing significance in stringent climate mitigation scenarios. Results from the literature and the AR6 database reveal gaps in the modeling of the hydrogen supply chain particularly in storage transportation and distribution. Model characteristics are critical in determining hydrogen’s share within the energy portfolio. Additionally this study underscores the importance of addressing both parametric and structural uncertainties in IAMs which are often underestimated leading to varied outcomes regarding hydrogen’s role in decarbonization strategies.
Unlocking Sweden's Hydrogen Export Potential: A Techno-Economic Analysis of Compressed Hydrogen and Chemical Carriers
Jun 2025
Publication
Sweden with its abundant access to low-cost fossil-free electricity is well-positioned to become a significant hydrogen exporter. This study presents a techno-economic analysis of different hydrogen carriers—compressed hydrogen methanol ammonia and liquid organic hydrogen carriers (LOHC)—for export applications. Using the Northern Green Crane Project as a reference for scale the analysis focuses on cost optimization for hydrogen production storage and transportation. A linear programming model is developed to optimize capacities and operational strategies for each carrier ensuring a fair basis for comparison. Results indicate that LOHC and ammonia are competitive with compressed hydrogen showing particular promise for larger-scale long-distance deliveries. These findings offer valuable insights for policymakers and industry stakeholders developing Sweden’s hydrogen export strategies.
Streamlining and Improving Some Aspects of the Governance of the Energy Sector
Sep 2025
Publication
The governance of the EU energy sector has gradually evolved over time to reflect and support the closer integration of the Internal Electricity Market. As the EU energy sector faces new challenges both at the local and cross-border levels its governance might once again need to be reviewed to ensure that it remains fit for the future. This Policy Brief highlights three opportunities for streamlining the governance of the electricity (and gas) sector(s) at the cross-border level related to: (i) the ‘all TSOs’ or ‘all relevant TSOs’ processes; (ii) the regulatory oversight of EU-wide entities; and (iii) the operation of the electricity market coupling. Other areas for improvement in the current governance framework may also emerge and one suggestion relates to the dual role of the ENTSOs both as (i) entities responsible for a number of essential tasks for the energy sector and (ii) associations with TSOs as their members.
The Impact of Temporal Hydrogen Regulation on Hydrogen Exporters and their Domestic Energy Transition
Aug 2025
Publication
As global demand for green hydrogen rises potential hydrogen exporters move into the spotlight. While exports can bring countries revenue large-scale on-grid hydrogen electrolysis for export can profoundly impact domestic energy prices and energy-related emissions. Our investigation explores the interplay of hydrogen exports domestic energy transition and temporal hydrogen regulation employing a sector-coupled energy model in Morocco. We find substantial co-benefits of domestic carbon dioxide mitigation and hydrogen exports whereby exports can reduce market-based costs for domestic electricity consumers while mitigation reduces costs for hydrogen exporters. However increasing hydrogen exports in a fossil-dominated system can substantially raise market-based costs for domestic electricity consumers but surprisingly temporal matching of hydrogen production can lower these costs by up to 31% with minimal impact on exporters. Here we show that this policy instrument can steer the welfare (re-)distribution between hydrogen exporting firms hydrogen importers and domestic electricity consumers and hereby increases acceptance among actors.
Assistance in the Development of an Auction Design and Necessary Pre-conditions for a European Import Auction for Renewable Hydrogen under the European Hydrogen Bank: Final Report
Aug 2025
Publication
This report supports the European Commission (DG ENER) in the design and implementation of a European import auction for renewable hydrogen and its derivatives under the European Hydrogen Bank (EHB). The EHB aims to contribute to the EU's climate neutrality goal by 2050. While domestic auctions have already been launched under the EHB its international leg focusing on renewable fuels of non-biological origin (RFNBO) imports from third countries remains to be designed. This report offers strategic recommendations based on hydrogen market analyses the assessment of existing and planned hydrogen auction schemes in Europe and beyond as well as preliminary considerations on auction design. The analysis highlights the potential for hydrogen imports from regions like North America Australia Latin America and the MENA region. It includes concrete case studies on both pipeline-based imports of pure hydrogen and ship-based imports of key derivatives (ammonia methanol and synthetic aviation fuels (eSAF) to reflect Member State preferences and provides a concrete starting point for further defining import auctions. Priority considerations for auction design include ensuring fair competition between domestic production and imports addressing geopolitical risks and achieving cost efficiency. The case studies serve as a flexible blueprint for implementing EHB import auctions considering Member State interests and aligning with the EU's broader objectives.
Hydrogen UK - Driving Demand
Jul 2025
Publication
Low carbon hydrogen has a fundamental role to play in not one but two of the UK Government’s core missions. First it can help grow the economy - with thousands of new jobs and opportunities breathing new life into our industrial heartlands. Second it can help the UK become a clean energy superpower by using clean secure energy that we control. Third it can future-proof the UK’s foundational industries delivering decarbonisation and energy security to the hard-to-abate sectors which underpin the UK economy. Hydrogen developers across our membership report growing interest from customers in a wide range of sectors. Whilst current government policy has helped start the hydrogen economy industry wants this to accelerate and become more holistic so that interest is translated into demand allowing the sector to fully develop and the UK to meet its decarbonisation targets. With growing international competition the UK Government should prioritise the growth of hydrogen technology implementation leveraging the nation’s natural geological and geographical advantages. Although £20 billion in private capital investment is estimated to be ready to support the UK Government’s hydrogen ambitions persistent delays and market uncertainty risk this funding being lost to other markets. This report outlines the importance of Driving Demand for offtakers complementing the strong market foundation built from Government’s early hydrogen production focus. For effective policy implementation industry stakeholders have highlighted the importance of finding balance: retaining low-carbon technology optionality alongside certainty and support for investment with the adoption of a clear ‘vision’ and ‘market creation’ supported by a tailored mix of ‘carrots and sticks’ to support the market. From the research conducted by HUK it is clear that the choice of decarbonisation options is not done on a sector-by-sector basis that even within companies the decision-making process is site-by-site. This reflects the sensitivity of numerous factors that will ultimately determine the best solution for their site and re-enforces the view that customers must be allowed the choice of decarbonisation options. Hydrogen will play a significant role in decarbonising some of the hardest to abate sectors of the UK economy complimenting the role of electrification CCUS and other decarbonisation technologies. These sectors represent the hardest and therefore most expensive to decarbonise. However hydrogen also provides an opportunity to deliver significant economic growth through a thriving domestic supply chain and so a holistic approach should be applied.
The paper can be found on their website.
The paper can be found on their website.
The Lack of Systems Thinking and Interdisciplinarity is Killing the Hydrogen Economy
Sep 2025
Publication
Hydrogen’s promise as a transformative energy solution has been consistently unfulfilled. This perspective article suggests that the primary barrier is not necessarily technological but a systemic failure to apply holistic systems thinking and genuine interdisciplinary collaboration. Through historical analysis and contemporary case studies we argue that only by integrating technical economic policy and social expertise within a holistic systems framework across the entire value chain can hydrogen overcome its boom-and-bust cycles and become a foundational component of the low-carbon energy future.
GB Energy Networks: Experts' Views on Future Pathways and Multi-vector Energy Networks Approach
Jul 2025
Publication
The decarbonization of energy systems poses significant challenges to energy networks due to the introduction of new energy vectors and changes in the pattern of energy demand. However this is currently an under-researched area. This paper addresses a gap in the literature by drawing on the socio-technological transitions and multi-system interactions literature to explore the views of experts from industry academia and other sectors about the challenges facing UK energy networks and the possible solutions including taking a more wholistic approach to the planning and operation of dierent networks. Using these frameworks we have demonstrated that systems can be deliberately integrated to interact and solve particular system challenges and have identified the nature of these interactions. The empirical results identify areas of consensus and disagreement about the future development of network infrastructure and regulation. They also highlight how government policy responds to the challenges and opportunities presented by the UK climate targets. The findings show widespread agreement that the UK energy system will become more electrified and decentralized as it incorporates more renewable energy. However the role of gaseous fuels in the energy system is more uncertain with some experts seeing a move from natural gas to hydrogen as being key to maintaining the security of supply while others see little or no role for hydrogen. There is also widespread agreement that the regulatory structure should change to address the challenges facing energy networks with much less agreement on whether this could happen quickly enough. Recent developments indicate the UK Government recognizes the need for regulatory change but it is premature to foresee their success in helping networks be a driver of rather than a barrier to a net-zero energy system.
Facilitating India’s Deep Decarbonisation Through Sector Coupling of Electricity with Green Hydrogen and Ammonia
Mar 2025
Publication
Green hydrogen and ammonia are forecast to play key roles in the deep decarbonization of the global economy. Here we explore the potential of using green hydrogen and ammonia to couple the energy agriculture and industrial sectors with India’s nationalscale electricity grid. India is an ideal test case as it currently has one of the most ambitious hydrogen programs in the world with projected electricity demands for hydrogen and ammonia production accounting for over 1500 TWh/yr or nearly 25% of India’s total electricity demand by 2050. We model the ambitious deep decarbonization of India’s electricity grid and half of its steel and fertilizer industries by 2050. We uncover modest risks for India from such a strategy with many benefits and opportunities. Our analysis suggests that a renewables-based energy system coupled with ammonia off-take sectors has the potential to dramatically reduce India’s greenhouse emissions reduce requirements for expensive long-duration energy storage or firm generating capacity reduce the curtailment of renewable energy provide valuable short-duration and long-duration load-shifting and system resilience to inter-annual weather variations and replace tens of billions of USD in ammonia and fuel imports each year. All this while potentially powering new multi-billion USD green steel and maritime fuel export industries. The key risk for India in relation to such a strategy lies in the potential for higher costs and reduced benefits if the rest of the world does not match their ambitious investment in renewables electrolyzers and clean storage technologies. We show that such a pessimistic outcome could result in the costs of green hydrogen and ammonia staying high for India through 2050 although still within the range of their gray counterparts. If on the other hand renewable and storage costs continue to decline further with continued global deployment all the above benefits could be achieved with a reduced levelized cost of hydrogen and ammonia (10–25%) potentially with a modest reduction in total energy system costs (5%). Such an outcome would have profound global implications given India’s central role in the future global energy economy establishing India’s global leadership in green shipping fuel agriculture and steel while creating an affordable sustainable and secure domestic energy supply.
The Role of Power-to-X and Domestic eFuel Production for Energy Transition and Energy Independence in Europe
Jan 2025
Publication
The ongoing global energy transition spurred by ecological concerns and by evolving political dynamics is necessitating a significant expansion of renewable energy sources. This shift towards renewables is introducing the challenge of heightened energy supply volatility and it underscores the imperative for large-scale storage solutions in order to mitigate fluctuations in demand and supply. This study investigates the potential of Power-to-X (P2X) technologies to address this challenge and it evaluates their technical and socioeconomic implications. Using scenario simulations that leverage the maximum estimated potentials of renewable energy sources relative to demand profiles across different countries we explore the role of P2X integration in the enhancement of energy production. Our analysis highlights the pivotal role of hydrogen in the decarbonization of key industrial sectors such as steel production and heavyduty transportation in the near term. For Germany we observe a reduction in CO2 emissions from 306.26 Mt to 232.28 Mt (-24.15%) and an increase in energy independence as measured by the reduction in primary energy imports from 1150.37 TWh to 887.86 TWh (-22.82%) when comparing the baseline scenario to the most socio-economically favorable scenario. France demonstrates even greater reductions with CO2 emissions decreasing by 37.69% and primary energy imports by 40.46%. Portugal achieves similar reductions with CO2 emissions falling by 38.71% and primary energy imports by 41.81%. However none of the three countries investigated in this study (Germany France and Portugal) achieve full decarbonization and energy independence simultaneously since their respective potential for renewable energy is not sufficiently large. Drawing from these insights and accounting for the unique contexts of each of the three countries we offer tailored policy recommendations for optimizing P2X utilization and enhancing energy production efficiency.
Ensuring Southern Spain’s Energy Future: A LEAP-Based Scenario for Meeting 2030 and 2050 Goals
Aug 2025
Publication
The transition towards a low-carbon energy system remains a critical challenge for regions heavily dependent on fossil fuels such as Andalusia. This study proposes an energy planning framework based on the Low Emissions Analysis Platform (LEAP) to model alternative scenarios and assess the feasibility of meeting the 2030 and 2050 decarbonisation targets. Three scenarios are evaluated the Tendential Scenario (TS01) the Efficient Scenario (ES01) and the Efficient UJA (EEUJA) Scenario with this last being specifically designed to ensure full compliance with regional energy goals. The results indicate that while the Tendential Scenario falls short in reducing primary energy consumption and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions the Efficient Scenario achieves significant progress though it is still insufficient to meet renewable energy integration targets. The proposed EEUJA Scenario introduces more ambitious measures including large-scale electrification smart grids energy storage and green hydrogen deployment resulting in a 39.5% reduction in primary energy demand by 2030 and 97% renewable energy penetration by 2050. Furthermore by implementing sector-specific decarbonisation strategies for the industry transport residential and services sectors Andalusia could position itself as a frontrunner in the energy transition while minimising economic and environmental risks. These findings underscore the importance of policy enforcement technological innovation and financial incentives in securing a sustainable energy future. The methodology developed in this study is replicable for other regions aiming for carbon neutrality and energy resilience through strategic planning and scenario analysis.
Socio-Economic Impact Assessment of Hydrogen Injection in the Natural Gas Network
Feb 2025
Publication
This study explores the feasibility parameters of a potential investment plan for injecting “green” hydrogen into the existing natural gas supply network in Greece. To this end a preliminary profitability optimization analysis was conducted through key performance indicators such as the cost of hydrogen and the socio-environmental benefit of carbon savings followed by break-even and sensitivity analyses. The identification of the major impact drivers of the assessment was based on the examination of a set of operational scenarios of varying hydrogen and natural gas flow rates. The results show that high natural gas capacities with a 5% hydrogen content by volume are the optimal case in terms of socio-economic viability but the overall profitability is too sensitive to hydrogen pricing rendering it unfeasible without additional motives measures and pricing strategies. The results feed into the main challenge of implementing commercial “green” hydrogen infrastructures in the market in a sustainable and feasible manner.
Simulation and Feasibility Assessment of a Green Hydrogen Supply Chain: A Case Study in Oman
Feb 2024
Publication
The transition to sustainable energy is crucial for mitigating climate change impacts. This study addresses this imperative by simulating a green hydrogen supply chain tailored for residential cooking in Oman. The supply chain encompasses solar energy production underground storage pipeline transportation and residential application aiming to curtail greenhouse gas emissions and reduce the levelized cost of hydrogen (LCOH). The simulation results suggest leveraging a robust 7 GW solar plant. Oman achieves an impressive annual production of 9.78 TWh of green hydrogen equivalent to 147808 tonnes of H2 perfectly aligning with the ambitious goals of Oman Vision 2040. The overall LCOH for the green hydrogen supply chain is estimated at a highly competitive 6.826 USD/kg demonstrating cost competitiveness when benchmarked against analogous studies. A sensitivity analysis highlights Oman’s potential for cost-efective investments in green hydrogen infrastructure propelling the nation towards a sustainable energy future. This study not only addresses the pressing issue of reducing carbon emissions in the residential sector but also serves as a model for other regions pursuing sustainable energy transitions. The developed simulation models are publicly accessible at https://hychain.co.uk providing a valuable resource for further research and development in the feld of green hydrogen supply chains.
Natural Hydrogen in Uruguay: Catalog of H2-Generating Rocks, Prospective Exploration Areas, and Potential Systems
Feb 2025
Publication
The increasing demand for carbon-free energy in recent years has positioned hydrogen as a viable option. However its current production remains largely dependent on carbon-emitting sources. In this context natural hydrogen generated through geological processes in the Earth’s subsurface has emerged as a promising alternative. The present study provides the first national-scale assessment of natural dihydrogen (H2) potential in Uruguay by developing a catalog of potential H2-generating rocks identifying prospective exploration areas and proposing H2 systems there. The analysis includes a review of geological and geophysical data from basement rocks and onshore sedimentary basins. Uruguay stands out as a promising region for natural H2 exploration due to the significant presence of potential H2-generating rocks in its basement such as large iron formations (BIFs) radioactive rocks and basic and ultrabasic rocks. Additionally the Norte Basin exhibits potential efficient cap rocks including basalts and dolerites with geological analogies to the Mali field. Indirect evidence of H2 in a free gas phase has been observed in the western Norte Basin. This suggests the presence of a potential H2 system in this area linked to the Arapey Formation basalts (seal) and Mesozoic sandstones (reservoir). Furthermore the proposed H2 system could expand exploration opportunities in northeastern Argentina and southern Brazil given the potential presence of similar play/tramp.
Hydrogen SWOT Analysis of Poland’s Energy Transition
Apr 2025
Publication
This paper presents a comprehensive SWOT (strengths weaknesses opportunities and threats) analysis of utilizing hydrogen as a renewable fuel of non-biological origin (RFNBO) in Poland’s energy transition. Given Poland’s reliance on fossil fuels its deep decarbonization poses socio-economic and infrastructural challenges. This study examines the strengths weaknesses opportunities and threats associated with integrating hydrogen as an RFNBO fuel into Poland’s energy mix focusing on economic regulatory technological and social factors. The strengths identified include potential energy independence from fossil fuels increased investment and hydrogen’s applicability in hard-to-abate sectors. Weaknesses involve a low share of renewable hydrogen in the energy mix and the need for infrastructure development. Opportunities arise from European Union policies technological advancements and global trends favoring renewable hydrogen adoption. Threats encompass high production costs regulatory uncertainties and competition from other energy carriers. The analysis concludes that while hydrogen as an RFNBO fuel offers potential for decarbonizing Poland’s energy mix realizing this potential requires large-scale investments a supportive regulatory framework and technological innovation.
Keep it Local and Safe: Which System of Green Hydrogen in Germany is Accepted by Citizens?
Jan 2025
Publication
Transitioning from fossil fuels to renewable energies is imperative for Germany to reduce CO2 emissions and achieve greenhouse gas neutrality by 2045. Green hydrogen holds great potential to contribute to this energy transition by enabling the storage of surplus renewable energy. However Germany's green hydrogen production industry is still in its infancy with only a few green hydrogen plants existing. Studies examining the public's acceptance of green hydrogen production are scarce in this context. Still high societal acceptance can contribute to the future expansion of green hydrogen production in Germany in terms of speed and volume. Therefore our study aims to identify significant factors influencing the German population's acceptance of green hydrogen production within various acceptance groups with differing preferences for future green hydrogen production systems. We conducted an online survey (n=1203) in Germany in 2022/2023 incorporating a choice experiment. Through subsequent latent class analysis four acceptance groups with distinct preferences regarding local green hydrogen production were identified: Unconvinced citizens Security-conscious citizens Regional electricity consumers and Financial beneficiaries. A discriminant analysis identified 9 out of 11 factors as significant for distinguishing between these acceptance groups regarding their preferences for local green hydrogen production: trust in plant safety trust in project managers risk/benefit perception environmental self-identity negative attitude towards renewable energies positive attitude towards renewable energies emotions age and gender. However no significant effects were observed for experience with green hydrogen and distance to the place of residence. Based on our results it is recommended that required renewable energy for green hydrogen production should be produced as close to the green hydrogen plants as possible. It must be ensured and communicated to the public that the (planned) green hydrogen plants meet high safety standards and pose a very low risk of fire or explosion. The neighbouring population should also benefit through annual heating cost savings and financial participation. Implementing these measures can increase acceptance of local green hydrogen production facilitating the transition towards a more sustainable energy future in Germany and beyond.
Towards Net Zero in Poland: A Novel Approach to Power Grid Balance with Centralized Hydrogen Production Units
Mar 2025
Publication
The net zero emissions policy represents a crucial component of the global initiative to address climate change. The European Union has set a target of achieving net zero greenhouse gas emissions by 2050. This study assesses Poland’s feasibility of achieving net zero emissions. Currently Poland relies on fossil fuels for approximately 71% of its electricity generation with electricity accounting for only approximately 16% of the country’s total final energy consumption. Accordingly the transition to net zero carbon emissions will necessitate significant modifications to the energy system particularly in the industrial transport and heating sectors. As this is a long-term process this article demonstrates how the development of renewable energy sources will progressively necessitate the utilisation of electrolysers in line with the ongoing industrial transformation. A new framework for the energy system up to 2060 is presented with transition phases in 2030 2040 and 2050. This study demonstrates that it is feasible to attain a sustainable zero-emission and stable energy system despite reliance on uncontrolled and weather-dependent energy sources. Preparing the electricity grid to transmit almost three times the current amount represents a significant challenge. The resulting simulation capacities comprising 64 GW of onshore wind 33 GW of offshore wind 136 GW of photovoltaic 10 GW of nuclear and 22 GW of electrolysers enable a positive net energy balance to be achieved under the weather conditions observed between 2015 and 2023. To guarantee system stability electrolysers must operate within a centralised framework functioning as centrally controlled dispatchable load units.
Analysis of Carbon Emissions and Carbon Reduction Benefits of Green Hydrogen and Its Derivatives Based on the Full Life Cycle
Oct 2025
Publication
Under the constraints of the “dual carbon” goals accurately depicting the full life cycle carbon footprint of green hydrogen and its derivatives and quantifying the potential for emission reduction is a prerequisite for hydrogen energy policy and investment decisions. This paper constructs a unified life cycle model covering the entire process from “wind and solar power generation–electrolysis of water to producing hydrogen-synthesis of methanol/ammonia-terminal transportation” and includes the manufacturing stage of key front-end equipment and the negative carbon effect of CO2 capture within a single system boundary and also presents an empirical analysis. The results show that the full life cycle carbon emissions of wind power hydrogen production and photovoltaic hydrogen production are 1.43 kgCO2/kgH2 and 3.17 kgCO2/kgH2 respectively both lower than the 4.9 kg threshold for renewable hydrogen in China. Green hydrogen synthesis of methanol achieves a net negative emission of −0.83 kgCO2/kgCH3OH and the emission of green hydrogen synthesis of ammonia is 0.57 kgCO2/kgNH3. At the same time it is predicted that green hydrogen green ammonia and green methanol can contribute approximately 1766 66.62 and 30 million tons of CO2 emission reduction respectively by 2060 providing a quantitative basis for the large-scale layout and policy formulation of the hydrogen energy industry.
The Potential for Renewable and Low-carbon Gas Deployment and Impact on Enabling Infrastucture Development for the Baltic Sea Region
Jul 2025
Publication
The study focuses on the deployment of renewable and low-carbon gases in the Baltic Energy Market Interconnection Plan (BEMIP) region focusing on the 8 BEMIP Member States (Denmark Estonia Finland Germany Latvia Lithuania Poland and Sweden). The report 1) assesses the economic and technical potential supply as well as demand for renewable and low-carbon gases in the BEMIP region; 2) maps current supply infrastructure and demand policies and measures; 3) documents existing technical safety and economic barriers for the development of infrastructure for the integration of biomethane and hydrogen; 4) identifies the hydrogen and methane infrastructure needs to facilitate the integration of renewable and low-carbon gases in the region; and 5) provides recommendations to address identified challenges.
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