Policy & Socio-Economics
Optimising Air Quality Co-benefits in a Hydrogen Economy: A Case for Hydrogen-specific Standards for NOx Emissions
Jun 2021
Publication
A global transition to hydrogen fuel offers major opportunities to decarbonise a range of different energyintensive sectors from large-scale electricity generation through to heating in homes. Hydrogen can be deployed as an energy source in two distinct ways in electrochemical fuel cells and via combustion. Combustion seems likely to be a major pathway given that it requires only incremental technological change. The use of hydrogen is not however without side-effects and the widely claimed benefit that only water is released as a by-product is only accurate when it is used in fuel cells. The burning of hydrogen can lead to the thermal formation of nitrogen oxides (NOx – the sum of NO + NO2) via a mechanism that also applies to the combustion of fossil fuels. NO2 is a key air pollutant that is harmful in its own right and is a precursor to other pollutants of concern such as fine particulate matter and ozone. Minimising NOx as a by-product from hydrogen boilers and engines is possible through control of combustion conditions but this can lead to reduced power output and performance. After-treatment and removal of NOx is possible but this increases cost and complexity in appliances. Combustion applications therefore require optimisation and potentially lower hydrogen-specific emissions standards if the greatest air quality benefits are to derive from a growth in hydrogen use
Evaluation of Zero-Energy Building and Use of Renewable Energy in Renovated Buildings: A Case Study in Japan
Apr 2022
Publication
Following the Paris Agreement in 2015 the worldwide focus on global warming countermeasures has intensified. The Japanese government has declared its aim at achieving carbon neutrality by 2050. The concept of zero-energy buildings (ZEBs) is based on measures to reduce energy consumption in buildings the prospects of which are gradually increasing. This study investigated the annual primary energy consumption; as well as evaluated renewed and renovated buildings that had a solar power generation system and utilized solar and geothermal heat. It further examines the prospects of hydrogen production from on-site surplus electricity and the use of hydrogen fuel cells. A considerable difference was observed between the actual energy consumption (213 MJ/m2 ) and the energy consumption estimated using an energy simulation program (386 MJ/m2 ). Considerable savings of energy were achieved when evaluated based on the actual annual primary energy consumption of a building. The building attained a near net zero-energy consumption considering the power generated from the photovoltaic system. The study showed potential energy savings in the building by producing hydrogen using surplus electricity from on-site power generation and introducing hydrogen fuel cells. It is projected that a building’s energy consumption will be lowered by employing the electricity generated by the hydrogen fuel cell for standby power water heating and regenerating heat from the desiccant system.
Impacts of Greenhouse Gas Neutrality Strategies on Gas Infrastructure and Costs: Implications from Case Studies Based on French and German GHG-neutral Scenarios
Sep 2022
Publication
The European Union’s target to reach greenhouse gas neutrality by 2050 calls for a sharp decrease in the consumption of natural gas. This study assesses impacts of greenhouse gas neutrality on the gas system taking France and Germany as two case studies which illustrate a wide range of potential developments within the European Union. Based on a review of French and German GHG-neutral scenarios it explores impacts on gas infrastructure and estimates the changes in end-user methane price considering a business-as-usual and an optimised infrastructure pathway. Our results show that gas supply and demand radically change by mid-century across various scenarios. Moreover the analysis suggests that deep transformations of the gas infrastructure are required and that according to the existing pricing mechanisms the end-user price of methane will increase driven by the switch to low-carbon gases and intensified by infrastructure costs.
A Recent Review of Primary Hydrogen Carriers, Hydrogen Production Methods, and Applications
Mar 2023
Publication
Hydrogen is a promising energy carrier especially for transportation owing to its unique physical and chemical properties. Moreover the combustion of hydrogen gas generates only pure water; thus its wide utilization can positively affect human society to achieve global net zero CO2 emissions by 2050. This review summarizes the characteristics of the primary hydrogen carriers such as water methane methanol ammonia and formic acid and their corresponding hydrogen production methods. Additionally state-of-the-art studies and hydrogen energy applications in recent years are also included in this review. In addition in the conclusion section we summarize the advantages and disadvantages of hydrogen carriers and hydrogen production techniques and suggest the challenging tasks for future research.
Ammonia: Zero-carbon Fertiliser, Fuel and Energy Storage
Feb 2020
Publication
This briefing considers the opportunities and challenges associated with the manufacture and future use of zero-carbon ammonia which is referred to in this report as green ammonia. The production of green ammonia has the capability to impact the transition towards zero-carbon through the decarbonisation of its current major use in fertiliser production. Perhaps as significantly it has the following potential uses: • As a medium to store and transport chemical energy with the energy being released either by directly reacting with air or by the full or partial decomposition of ammonia to release hydrogen. • As a transport fuel by direct combustion in an engine or through chemical reaction with oxygen in the air in a fuel cell to produce electricity to power a motor. • To store thermal energy through the absorption of water and through phase changes between material states (for example liquid to gas).
Smart Power-to-gas Deployment Strategies Informed by Spatially Explicit Cost and Value Models
Oct 2022
Publication
Green hydrogen allows coupling renewable electricity to hard-to-decarbonize sectors such as long-distance transport and carbon-intensive industries in order to achieve net zero emissions. Evaluating the cost and value of power-to-gas is a major challenge owing to the spatial distribution and temporal variability of renewable electricity CO2 and energy demand. Here we propose a method based on geographic information system (GIS) and techno-economic modeling to: (i) compare the levelized cost and levelized value of power-to-gas across locations; (ii) identify potential hotspots for their future implementation in Switzerland; and (iii) set cost improvement targets as well as smart deployment strategies. Our method accounts for the spatial and temporal (both hourly and seasonal) availability of renewable electricity and CO2 sources as well as the presence of gas infrastructure heating networks oxygen and gas demand centers. We find that only green hydrogen plants connected directly to run-of-river hydropower plants are currently profitable in Switzerland (with NPV per CAPEX ranging between 2.3-5.6). However considering technological progress by 2050 a few green hydrogen plants deployed in the demand centers and powered by rooftop PV electricity will also become economically attractive. Moreover a few synthetic methane plants connected to run-of-river hydropower plants currently show slight profitability (NPV per CAPEX reaching values up to 1.3) and in 2050 (NPV per CAPEX up to 3.1) whereas those connected to rooftop PV will remain uneconomical even in 2050. Based on our findings we devise a long-term roadmap for policy makers and project developers to plan future green hydrogen projects. The proposed methodology which is applied to Switzerland can be extended to other countries.
A Positive Shift in the Public Acceptability of a Low-Carbon Energy Project After Implementation: The Case of a Hydrogen Fuel Station
Apr 2019
Publication
Public acceptability of low-carbon energy projects is often measured with one-off polls. This implies that opinion-shifts over time are not always taken into consideration by decision makers relying on these polls. Observations have given the impression that public acceptability of energy projects increases after implementation. However this positive shift over time has not yet been systematically studied and is not yet understood very well. This paper aims to fill this gap. Based on two psychological mechanisms loss aversion and cognitive dissonance reduction we hypothesize that specifically people who live in proximity of a risky low-carbon technology—a hydrogen fuel station (HFS) in this case—evaluate this technology as more positive after its implementation than before. We conducted a survey among Dutch citizen living nearby a HFS and indeed found a positive shift in the overall evaluation of HFS after implementation. We also found that the benefits weighed stronger and the risks weaker after the implementation. This shift did not occur for citizens living further away from the HFS. The perceived risks and benefits did not significantly change after implementation neither for citizens living in proximity nor for citizens living further away. The societal implications of the findings are discussed.
Net Zero and Geospheric Return: Actions Today for 2030 and Beyond
Sep 2020
Publication
In a report co-authored by Columbia University’s Centre on Global Energy Policy (CGEP) and the Global CCS Institute titled ‘Net Zero and Geospheric Return: Actions today for 2030’ findings reveal that climate finance policies and the development of carbon dioxide removal technologies need to grow rapidly within the next 10 years in order to curb climate change and hit net-zero targets.
The report unveils key climate actions required to avoid climate catastrophe:
With 2020 set to close the hottest decade on record CO2 emissions need to drop by 50% to achieve net-zero climate goals by 2030 The rapid deployment of climate mitigating infrastructure needs to occur including the expansion of CO2 pipelines from the current 8000 km to 43000 km by 2030 Clear climate polices which reduce the financial and regulatory risk of CO2 capture and storage and increase CO2 storage options need to be quickly developed and implemented.
Link to document on Global CCS Institute Website
The report unveils key climate actions required to avoid climate catastrophe:
With 2020 set to close the hottest decade on record CO2 emissions need to drop by 50% to achieve net-zero climate goals by 2030 The rapid deployment of climate mitigating infrastructure needs to occur including the expansion of CO2 pipelines from the current 8000 km to 43000 km by 2030 Clear climate polices which reduce the financial and regulatory risk of CO2 capture and storage and increase CO2 storage options need to be quickly developed and implemented.
Link to document on Global CCS Institute Website
Regional Insights into Low-carbon Hydrogen Scale Up: World Energy Insights Working Paper
May 2022
Publication
Following the release of the “Hydrogen on the Horizon” series in July and September 2021 the World Energy Council in collaboration with EPRI and PwC led a series of regional deep dives to understand regional differences within low-carbon hydrogen development. These regional deep dives aimed to uncover regional perspectives and differing dynamics for low-carbon hydrogen uptake.<br/>Although each region presents its own distinctive challenges and opportunities the deep dives revealed that the “regional paths” provide new insights into the global scaling up of low-carbon hydrogen in the coming years. In addition each region holds its own unique potential in achieving the Sustainable Development Goals.<br/>Key Takeaways:<br/>1. Our new regional insights indicate that low-carbon hydrogen can play a significant role by 2040 across the world by supporting countries’ efforts towards achieving Paris Agreement goals whilst contributing to the diversity and security of their energy portfolios. This would require significant global trade flows of hydrogen and hydrogen-based fuels.<br/>2. The momentum for hydrogen-based fuels is continuing to grow worldwide but differences are seen between regions – based on differing market activities and opportunities.<br/>3. Today moving from “whether” to “how” to develop low-carbon hydrogen highlights significant uncertainties which need to be addressed if hydrogen is to reach its full potential.<br/>Can the challenges in various supply chain options be overcome?<br/>Can hydrogen play a role in tackling climate change in the short term?<br/>Can bankable projects emerge and the gap between engineers and financers be bridged? Can the stability of supply of the main low-carbon hydrogen production sources be guaranteed?<br/>4. Enabling low-carbon hydrogen at scale would notably require greater coordination and cooperation amongst stakeholders worldwide to better mobilise public and private finance and to shift the focus to end-users and people through the following actions:<br/>Moving from production cost to end-use price<br/>Developing Guarantees of Origin schemes with sustainability requirements<br/>Developing a global monitoring and reporting tool on low-carbon hydrogen projects<br/>Better consideration of social impacts alongside economic opportunities
Methane Cracking as a Bridge Technology to the Hydrogen Economy
Nov 2016
Publication
Shifting the fossil fuel dominated energy system to a sustainable hydrogen economy could mitigate climate change through reduction of greenhouse gas emissions. Because it is estimated that fossil fuels will remain a significant part of our energy system until mid-century bridge technologies which use fossil fuels in an environmentally cleaner way offer an opportunity to reduce the warming impact of continued fossil fuel utilization. Methane cracking is a potential bridge technology during the transition to a sustainable hydrogen economy since it produces hydrogen with zero emissions of carbon dioxide. However methane feedstock obtained from natural gas releases fugitive emissions of methane a potent greenhouse gas that may offset methane cracking benefits. In this work a model exploring the impact of methane cracking implementation in a hydrogen economy is presented and the impact on global emissions of carbon dioxide and methane is explored. The results indicate that the hydrogen economy has the potential to reduce global carbon dioxide equivalent emissions between 0 and 27% when methane leakage from natural gas is relatively low methane cracking is employed to produce hydrogen and a hydrogen fuel cell is applied. This wide range is a result of differences between the scenarios and the CH4 leakage rates used in the scenarios. On the other hand when methane leakage from natural gas is relatively high methane steam reforming is employed to produce hydrogen and an internal combustion engine is applied the hydrogen economy leads to a net increase in global carbon dioxide equivalent emissions between 19 and 27%.
Hydrogen for Net Zero - A Critical Cost-competitive Energy Vector
Nov 2021
Publication
The report “Hydrogen for Net Zero” presents an ambitious yet realistic deployment scenario until 2030 and 2050 to achieve Net Zero emissions considering the uses of hydrogen in industry power mobility and buildings. The scenario is described in terms of hydrogen demand supply infrastructure abatement potential and investments required and then compared with current momentum and investments in the industry to identify the investment gaps across value chains and geographies.
The report is based on the technoeconomic data of cost and performance of hydrogen technologies provided by Hydrogen Council members and McKinsey & Company as well as the Hydrogen Council investment tracker which covers all large-scale investments into hydrogen globally.
Link to their website
The report is based on the technoeconomic data of cost and performance of hydrogen technologies provided by Hydrogen Council members and McKinsey & Company as well as the Hydrogen Council investment tracker which covers all large-scale investments into hydrogen globally.
Link to their website
Determinants of Consumers’ Purchasing Intentions for the Hydrogen-Electric Motorcycle
Aug 2017
Publication
In recent years increasing concerns regarding the energy costs and environmental effects of urban motorcycle use have spurred the development of hydrogen-electric motorcycles in Taiwan. Although gasoline-powered motorcycles produce substantial amounts of exhaust and noise pollution hydrogen-electric motorcycles are highly energy-efficient relatively quiet and produce zero emissions features that suggest their great potential to reduce the problems currently associated with the use of motorcycles in city environments. This study identified the significant external variables that affect consumers’ purchase intentions toward using hydrogen-electric motorcycles. A questionnaire method was employed with a total of 300 questionnaires distributed and 233 usable questionnaires returned yielding a 78% overall response rate. Structural equation modeling (SEM) was applied to test the research hypothesis. The research concluded that (1) product knowledge positively influenced purchase intentions but negatively affected the perceived risk; (2) perceived quality via hydrogen-electric motorcycles positively influenced the perceived value but negatively affected the perceived risk; (3) perceived risk negatively affected the perceived value; and (4) the perceived value positively affected purchase intentions. This study can be used as a reference for motorcycle manufacturers when planning their marketing strategies.
Interlinking the Renewable Electricity and Gas Sectors: A Techno-Economic Case Study for Austria
Oct 2021
Publication
Achieving climate neutrality requires a massive transformation of current energy systems. Fossil energy sources must be replaced with renewable ones. Renewable energy sources with reasonable potential such as photovoltaics or wind power provide electricity. However since chemical energy carriers are essential for various sectors and applications the need for renewable gases comes more and more into focus. This paper determines the Austrian green hydrogen potential produced exclusively from electricity surpluses. In combination with assumed sustainable methane production the resulting renewable gas import demand is identified based on two fully decarbonised scenarios for the investigated years 2030 2040 and 2050. While in one scenario energy efficiency is maximised in the other scenario significant behavioural changes are considered to reduce the total energy consumption. A techno-economic analysis is used to identify the economically reasonable national green hydrogen potential and to calculate the averaged levelised cost of hydrogen (LCOH2) for each scenario and considered year. Furthermore roll-out curves for the necessary expansion of national electrolysis plants are presented. The results show that in 2050 about 43% of the national gas demand can be produced nationally and economically (34 TWh green hydrogen 16 TWh sustainable methane). The resulting national hydrogen production costs are comparable to the expected import costs (including transport costs). The most important actions are the quick and extensive expansion of renewables and electrolysis plants both nationally and internationally
The Role of Hydrogen in a Greenhouse Gas-neutral Energy Supply System in Germany
Sep 2022
Publication
Hydrogen is widely considered to play a pivotal role in successfully transforming the German energy system but the German government’s current “National Hydrogen Strategy” does not specify how hydrogen utilization production storage or distribution will be implemented. Addressing key uncertainties for the German energy system’s path to greenhouse gas-neutrality this paper examines hydrogen in different scenarios. This analysis aims to support the concretization of the German hydrogen strategy. Applying a European energy supply model with strong interactions between the conversion sector and the hydrogen system the analysis focuses on the requirements for geological hydrogen storages and their utilization over the course of a year the positioning of electrolyzers within Germany and the contributions of hydrogen transport networks to balancing supply and demand. Regarding seasonal hydrogen storages the results show that hydrogen storage facilities in the range of 42 TWhH2 to 104 TWhH2 are beneficial to shift high electricity generation volumes from onshore wind in spring and fall to winter periods with lower renewable supply and increased electricity and heat demands. In 2050 the scenario results show electrolyzer capacities between 41 GWel and 75 GWel in Germany. Electrolyzer sites were found to follow the low-cost renewable energy potential and are concentrated on the North Sea and Baltic Sea coasts with their high wind yields. With respect to a hydrogen transport infrastructure there were two robust findings: One a domestic German hydrogen transport network connecting electrolytic hydrogen production sites in northern Germany with hydrogen demand hubs in western and southern Germany is economically efficient. Two connecting Germany to a European hydrogen transport network with interconnection capacities between 18 GWH2 and 58 GWH2 is cost-efficient to meet Germany’s substantial hydrogen demand.
Methanol as a Renewable Energy Carrier: An Assessment of Production and Transportation Costs for Selected Global Locations
Jun 2021
Publication
The importing of renewable energy will be one part of the process of defossilizing the energy systems of countries and regions which are currently heavily dependent on the import of fossil-based energy carriers. This study investigates the possibility of importing renewable methanol comprised of hydrogen and carbon dioxide. Based on a methanol synthesis simulation model the net production costs of methanol are derived as a function of hydrogen and carbon dioxide expenses. These findings enable a comparison of the import costs of methanol and hydrogen. For this the hydrogen production and distribution costs for 2030 as reported in a recent study for four different origin/destination country combinations are considered. With the predicted hydrogen production costs of 1.35–2 €/kg and additional shipping costs methanol can be imported for 370–600 €/t if renewable or process-related carbon dioxide is available at costs of 100 €/t or below in the hydrogen-producing country. Compared to the current fossil market price of approximately 400 €/t renewable methanol could therefore become cost-competitive. Within the range of carbon dioxide prices of 30–100 €/t both hydrogen and methanol exhibit comparable energy-specific import costs of 18–30 €/GJ. Hence the additional costs for upgrading hydrogen to methanol are balanced out by the lower shipping costs of methanol compared to hydrogen. Lastly a comparison for producing methanol in the hydrogen’s origin or destination country indicates that carbon dioxide in the destination country must be 181–228 €/t less expensive than that in the origin country to balance out the more expensive shipping costs for hydrogen.
Future Electricity Series Part 3 - Power from Nuclear
Mar 2014
Publication
This independent cross-party report highlights the key role that political consensus can play in helping to reduce the costs of nuclear power in the UK as well as other low carbon technologies. This political consensus has never been more important than in this ‘defining decade’ for the power sector. The report highlights that an immediate challenge facing the UK’s new build programme is agreeing with the European Commission a regime for supporting new nuclear power. Changing the proposed support package would not be an impossible task if made necessary but maintaining broad political consensus and considering the implications of delay are also important. The State Aid process is an important opportunity for scrutiny with the report demonstrating that shareholders for Hinkley Point C could see bigger returns (19-21%) than those typically expected for PFI projects (12-15%). However it is too early to conclude on the value for money of the Hinkley Point C agreement. Both the negotiation process and the resulting investment contract are important but there has been little transparency over either so far and the negotiations were not competitive. The inquiry calls for more urgency and better coordination in seizing the opportunity to reuse the UK’s plutonium stockpile.
The UK’s stockpile of separated plutonium presents opportunities to tackle a number of national strategic priorities including implementing long term solutions for nuclear waste developing new technologies that could redefine the sector laying the ground for new nuclear power and pursuing nuclear non-proliferation. Government has identified three ‘credible solutions’ for reuse and the report recommends that it now sets clearer criteria against which to assess options and identifies budgetary requirements to help expediate the process. The report also argues that Government should do more on new nuclear technologies that could redefine the sector – such as considering smaller reactors nuclear for industrial heat or hydrogen production and closed or thorium fuel cycles. The Government’s initial response to a review of nuclear R&D a year ago by the then Chief Scientific Advisor Sir John Beddington has been welcome and it needs to build on this. In particular the UK should capitalise upon its existing expertise and past experience to focus efforts where there is most strategic value. Nulcear waste. Having failed to date the Government must urgently revisit plans for finding a site to store nuclear waste underground for thousands of years. Implementing this is a crucial part of demonstrating that nuclear waste is a manageable challenge. Despite being rejected by Cumbria County Council the continuing strong support amongst communities in West Cumbria for hosting a site is a promising sign.
On affordability the report finds that it is not yet clear which electricity generation technologies will be cheapest in the 2020s and beyond. Coal and gas could get more expensive if fossil fuel and carbon prices rise whilst low carbon technologies could get cheaper as technology costs fall with more deployment. This is the main reason for adopting an ‘all of the above’ strategy including nuclear power until costs become clearer and there is broad consensus behind this general approach.
On security of supply the inquiry says that deployment of nuclear power is likely to be influenced more by the economics of system balancing rather than technical system balancing challenges which can be met with greater deployment of existing balancing tools. The cost of maintaining system security is likely to mean that the UK maintains at least some baseload capacity such as nuclear power to limit system costs.
On sustainability the report finds that the environmental impacts of nuclear power are comparable to some generation technologies and favourable to others although the long lived nature of some radioactive nuclear waste and the dual use potential of nuclear technology for civil and military applications create unique sustainability challenges which the UK is a world leader in managing.
It is the final report of the Future Electricity Series an independent and cross party inquiry into the UK power sector sponsored by the Institution of Gas Engineers and Managers
The UK’s stockpile of separated plutonium presents opportunities to tackle a number of national strategic priorities including implementing long term solutions for nuclear waste developing new technologies that could redefine the sector laying the ground for new nuclear power and pursuing nuclear non-proliferation. Government has identified three ‘credible solutions’ for reuse and the report recommends that it now sets clearer criteria against which to assess options and identifies budgetary requirements to help expediate the process. The report also argues that Government should do more on new nuclear technologies that could redefine the sector – such as considering smaller reactors nuclear for industrial heat or hydrogen production and closed or thorium fuel cycles. The Government’s initial response to a review of nuclear R&D a year ago by the then Chief Scientific Advisor Sir John Beddington has been welcome and it needs to build on this. In particular the UK should capitalise upon its existing expertise and past experience to focus efforts where there is most strategic value. Nulcear waste. Having failed to date the Government must urgently revisit plans for finding a site to store nuclear waste underground for thousands of years. Implementing this is a crucial part of demonstrating that nuclear waste is a manageable challenge. Despite being rejected by Cumbria County Council the continuing strong support amongst communities in West Cumbria for hosting a site is a promising sign.
On affordability the report finds that it is not yet clear which electricity generation technologies will be cheapest in the 2020s and beyond. Coal and gas could get more expensive if fossil fuel and carbon prices rise whilst low carbon technologies could get cheaper as technology costs fall with more deployment. This is the main reason for adopting an ‘all of the above’ strategy including nuclear power until costs become clearer and there is broad consensus behind this general approach.
On security of supply the inquiry says that deployment of nuclear power is likely to be influenced more by the economics of system balancing rather than technical system balancing challenges which can be met with greater deployment of existing balancing tools. The cost of maintaining system security is likely to mean that the UK maintains at least some baseload capacity such as nuclear power to limit system costs.
On sustainability the report finds that the environmental impacts of nuclear power are comparable to some generation technologies and favourable to others although the long lived nature of some radioactive nuclear waste and the dual use potential of nuclear technology for civil and military applications create unique sustainability challenges which the UK is a world leader in managing.
It is the final report of the Future Electricity Series an independent and cross party inquiry into the UK power sector sponsored by the Institution of Gas Engineers and Managers
A Review on Ports' Readiness to Facilitate International Hydrogen Trade
Jan 2023
Publication
The existing literature on the hydrogen supply chains has knowledge gaps. Most studies focus on hydrogen production storage transport and utilisation but neglect ports which are nexuses in the supply chains. To fill the gap this paper focuses on ports' readiness for the upcoming hydrogen international trade. Potential hydrogen exporting and importing ports are screened. Ports' readiness for hydrogen export and import are reviewed from perspectives of infrastructure risk management public acceptance regulations and standards and education and training. The main findings are: (1) liquid hydrogen ammonia methanol and LOHCs are suitable forms for hydrogen international trade; (2) twenty ports are identified that could be first movers; among them twelve are exporting ports and eight are importing ports; (3) ports’ readiness for hydrogen international trade is still in its infancy and the infrastructure construction or renovation risk management measures establishment of regulations and standards education and training all require further efforts.
Moving Toward the Low-carbon Hydrogen Economy: Experiences and Key Learnings from National Case Studies
Sep 2022
Publication
The urgency to achieve net-zero carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions by 2050 as first presented by the IPCC special report on 1.5°C Global Warming has spurred renewed interest in hydrogen to complement electrification for widespread decarbonization of the economy. We present reflections on estimates of future hydrogen demand optimization of infrastructure for hydrogen production transport and storage development of viable business cases and environmental impact evaluations using life cycle assessments. We highlight challenges and opportunities that are common across studies of the business cases for hydrogen in Germany the UK the Netherlands Switzerland and Norway. The use of hydrogen in the industrial sector is an important driver and could incentivise large-scale hydrogen value chains. In the long-term hydrogen becomes important also for the transport sector. Hydrogen production from natural gas with capture and permanent storage of the produced CO2 (CCS) enables large-scale hydrogen production in the intermediate future and is complementary to hydrogen from renewable power. Furthermore timely establishment of hydrogen and CO2 infrastructures serves as an anchor to support the deployment of carbon dioxide removal technologies such as direct air carbon capture and storage (DACCS) and biohydrogen production with CCS. Significant public support is needed to ensure coordinated planning governance and the establishment of supportive regulatory frameworks which foster the growth of hydrogen markets.
Comparative Cost Assessment of Sustainable Energy Carriers Produced from Natural Gas Accounting for Boil-off Gas and Social Cost of Carbon
Jun 2020
Publication
As a result of particular locations of large-scale energy producers and increases in energy demand transporting energy has become one of the key challenges of energy supply. For a long-distance ocean transportation transfer of energy carriers via ocean tankers is considered as a decent solution compared to pipelines. Due to cryogenic temperatures of energy carriers heat leaks into storage tanks of these carriers causes a problem called boil-off gas (BOG). BOG losses reduce the quantity of energy carriers which affects their economic value. Therefore this study proposes to examine the effects of BOG economically in production and transportation phases of potential energy carriers produced from natural gas namely; liquefied natural gas (LNG) dimethyl-ether (DME) methanol liquid ammonia (NH3) and liquid hydrogen (H2). Mathematical approach is used to calculate production and transportation costs of these energy carriers and to account for BOG as a unit cost within the total cost. The results of this study show that transportation costs of LNG liquid ammonia methanol DME and liquid hydrogen from natural gas accounting for BOG are 0.74 $/GJ 1.09 $/GJ 0.68 $/GJ 0.53 $/GJ and 3.24 $/GJ respectively. DME and methanol can be more economic compared to LNG to transport the energy of natural gas for the same ship capacity. Including social cost of carbon (SCC) within the total cost of transporting the energy of natural gas the transportation cost of liquid ammonia is 1.11 $/GJ whereas LNG transportation cost rises significantly to 1.68 $/GJ at SCC of 137 $/t CO2 eq. Consequently liquid ammonia becomes economically favored compared to LNG. Transportation cost of methanol (0.70 $/GJ) and DME (0.55 $/GJ) are also lower than LNG however liquid hydrogen transportation cost (3.24 $/GJ) is still the highest even though the increment of the cost is about 0.1% as SCC included within the transportation cost.
Can Industrial-Scale Solar Hydrogen Supplied from Commodity Technologies Be Cost Competitive by 2030?
Sep 2020
Publication
Expanding decarbonization efforts beyond the power sector are contingent on cost-effective production of energy carriers like H2 with near-zero life-cycle carbon emissions. Here we assess the levelized cost of continuous H2 supply (95% availability) at industrial-scale quantities (100 tonnes/day) in 2030 from integrating commodity technologies for solar photovoltaics electrolysis and energy storage. Our approach relies on modeling the least-cost plant design and operation that optimize component sizes while adhering to hourly solar availability production requirements and component inter-temporal operating constraints. We apply the model to study H2 production costs spanning the continental United States and through extensive sensitivity analysis explore system configurations that can achieve $2.5/kg levelized costs or less for a range of plausible 2030 technology projections at high-irradiance locations. Notably we identify potential sites and system configurations where PV-electrolytic H2 could substitute natural gas-derived H2 at avoided CO2 costs (%$120/ton) similar to the cost of deploying carbon capture and sequestration.
Exploring Supply Chain Design and Expansion Planning of China's Green Ammonia Production with an Optimization-based Simulation Approach
Aug 2021
Publication
Green ammonia production as an important application for propelling the upcoming hydrogen economy has not been paid much attention by China the world's largest ammonia producer. As a result related studies are limited. This paper explores potential supply chain design and planning strategies of green ammonia production in the next decade of China with a case study in Inner Mongolia. A hybrid optimization-based simulation approach is applied considering traditional optimization approaches are insufficient to address uncertainties and dynamics in a long-term energy transition. Results show that the production cost of green ammonia will be at least twice that of the current level due to higher costs of hydrogen supply. Production accounts for the largest share of the total expense of green hydrogen (~80 %). The decline of electricity and electrolyser prices are key in driving down the overall costs. In addition by-product oxygen is also considered in the model to assess its economic benefits. We found that by-product oxygen sales could partly reduce the total expense of green hydrogen (~12 % at a price of USD 85/t) but it also should be noted that the volatile price of oxygen may pose uncertainties and risks to the effectiveness of the offset. Since the case study may represent the favourable conditions in China due to the abundant renewable energy resources and large-scale ammonia industry in this region we propose to take a moderate step towards green ammonia production and policies should be focused on reducing the electricity price and capital investments in green hydrogen production. We assume the findings and implications are informative to planning future green ammonia production in China.
Redrawing the EU’s Energy Relations: Getting it Right with African Renewable Hydrogen
Oct 2022
Publication
In this paper we will explore the state of play with renewable hydrogen development in Africa through some case studies from AGHA members and the scope for growth moving forward. In so doing we will address some of the prevailing challenges to build out of a clean hydrogen economy that could be foreseen already at this early stage and look for potential solutions building on what is already in place in other sectors. We make the case that there should be four key areas of focus moving forward on African-EU hydrogen collaboration. Firstly (i) foreign direct investment (FDI) should be de-risked through offtake mechanisms and public-private partnerships (ii) flagship projects should lead the way (iii) large parts of the value chain should remain in Africa (iv) wider ‘democratisation’ and accessibility of the sector should be encouraged
Technology Roadmaps for Transition Management: The Case of Hydrogen Energy
Oct 2011
Publication
Technology roadmaps are increasingly used by governments to inform and promote technological transitions such as a transition to a hydrogen energy system. This paper develops a framework for understanding how current roadmapping practice relates to emerging theories of the governance of systems innovation. In applying this framework to a case study of hydrogen roadmaps the paper finds that roadmapping for transitions needs to place greater emphasis on ensuring good quality and transparent analytic and participatory procedures. To be most useful roadmaps should be embedded within institutional structures that enable the incorporation of learning and re-evaluation but in practice most transition roadmaps are one-off exercises
Transition to Low-Carbon Hydrogen Energy System in the UAE: Sector Efficiency and Hydrogen Energy Production Efficiency Analysis
Sep 2022
Publication
To provide an effective energy transition hydrogen is required to decarbonize the hard-toabate industries. As a case study this paper provides a holistic view of the hydrogen energy transition in the United Arab Emirates (UAE). By utilizing the directional distance function undesirable data envelopment analysis model the energy economic and environmental efficiency of UAE sectors are estimated from 2001 to 2020 to prioritize hydrogen sector coupling. Green hydrogen production efficiency is analyzed from 2020 to 2050. The UAE should prioritize the industry and transportation sectors with average efficiency scores of 0.7 and 0.74. The decomposition of efficiency into pure technical efficiency and scale efficiency suggests policies and strategies should target upscaling the UAE’s low-carbon hydrogen production capacity to expedite short-term and overall production efficiency. The findings of this study can guide strategies and policies for the UAE’s low-carbon hydrogen transition. A framework is developed based on the findings of the study.
The Vision of France, Germany, and the European Union on Future Hydrogen Energy Research and Innovation
Jul 2021
Publication
Hydrogen (H2) is an essential vector for freeing our societies from fossil fuels and effectively initiating the energy transition. Offering high energy density hydrogen can be used for mobile stationary or industrial applications of all sizes. This perspective on the crucial role of hydrogen is shared by a growing number of countries worldwide (e.g. China Germany Japan Republic of Korea Australia and United States) which are publishing ambitious roadmaps for the development of hydrogen and fuel cell technologies supported by substantial financial efforts.
Role of Low Carbon Emission H2 in the Energy Transition of Colombia: Environmental Assessment of H2 Production Pathways for a Certification Scheme
Oct 2022
Publication
Hydrogen (H2) is a low-carbon carrier. Hence measuring the impact of its supply chain is key to guaranteeing environmental benefits. This research proposes a classification of H2 in Colombia based on its carbon footprint and source. Such environmental characterization enables the design of regulatory instruments to incentivize the demand for low carbon-H2. Life cycle assessment (LCA) was used to determine the carbon footprint of H2 production technologies. Based on our LCA four classes of H2 were defined based on the emission threshold: (i) gray-H2 (21.8 - 17.0 kg CO2-eq/kg H2) (ii) low carbon-H2 (4.13 – 17.0 kg CO2-eq/kg H2) (iii) blue-H2 (<4.13 kg CO2-eq/kg H2) and (iv) green-H2 (<4.13 kg CO2-eq/kg H2). While low carbon-H2 could be employed to reduce 22% of the national greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions as defined in the National Determined Contribution (NDC) both blue and green-H2 could be employed for national and international trade since the standard emissions are aligned with international schemes such as CertifHy and the Chinese model. Besides gasification of biomass results in environmental savings indicating that biomass is a promising feedstock for international and local trade. Furthermore combinations of H2 production technologies such as renewable-based electrolysis natural gas steam reforming with CCS and ethanol conversion were evaluated to explore the production of a combination of green- and blue-H2 to meet the current and future demand of low carbon emission H2 in Colombia. However to comply with the proposed carbon emission threshold the installed capacities of solar and wind energies must be increase.
The Role of New Energy in Carbon Neutral
Mar 2021
Publication
Carbon dioxide is an important medium of the global carbon cycle and has the dual properties of realizing the conversion of organic matter in the ecosystem and causing the greenhouse effect. The fixed or available carbon dioxide in the atmosphere is defined as “gray carbon” while the carbon dioxide that cannot be fixed or used and remains in the atmosphere is called “black carbon”. Carbon neutral is the consensus of human development but its implementation still faces many challenges in politics resources technology market and energy structure etc. It is proposed that carbon replacement carbon emission reduction carbon sequestration and carbon cycle are the four main approaches to achieve carbon neutral among which carbon replacement is the backbone. New energy has become the leading role of the third energy conversion and will dominate carbon neutral in the future. Nowadays solar energy wind energy hydropower nuclear energy and hydrogen energy are the main forces of new energy helping the power sector to achieve low carbon emissions. “Green hydrogen” is the reserve force of new energy helping further reduce carbon emissions in industrial and transportation fields. Artificial carbon conversion technology is a bridge connecting new energy and fossil energy effectively reducing the carbon emissions of fossil energy. It is predicted that the peak value of China’s carbon dioxide emissions will reach 110108 t in 2030. The study predicts that China's carbon emissions will drop to 22108 t 33108 t and 44108 t respectively in 2060 according to three scenarios of high medium and low levels. To realize carbon neutral in China seven implementation suggestions have been put forward to build a new “three small and one large” energy structure in China and promote the realization of China's energy independence strategy.
Towards a Climate-neutral Energy System in the Netherlands
Jan 2022
Publication
This paper presents two different scenarios for the energy system of the Netherlands that achieve the Dutch government’s national target of near net-zero greenhouse gas emissions in 2050. Using the system optimisation model OPERA the authors have analysed the technology sector and cost implications of the assumptions underlying these scenarios. While the roles of a number of key energy technology and emission mitigation options are strongly dependent on the scenario and cost assumptions the analysis yields several common elements that appear in both scenarios and that consistently appear under differing cost assumptions. For example one of the main options for the decarbonisation of the Dutch energy system is electrification of energy use in end-use sectors and for the production of renewable hydrogen with electrolysers. As a result the level of electricity generation in 2050 will be three to four times higher than present generation levels. Ultimately renewable energy – particularly from wind turbines and solar panels – is projected to account for the vast majority of electricity generation around 99% in 2050. Imbalances between supply and demand resulting from this variable renewable electricity production can be managed via flexibility options including demand response and energy storage. Hydrogen also becomes an important energy carrier notably for transportation and in industry. If import prices are lower than costs of domestic production from natural gas with CCS or through electrolysis from renewable electricity (2.4–2.7 €/kgH2) the use of hydrogen increases especially in the built environment.
Few-atom Cluster Model Systems for a Hydrogen Economy
Apr 2020
Publication
To increase the share of renewable zero-emission energy sources such as wind and solar power in our energy supply the problem of their intermittency needs to be addressed. One way to do so is by buffering excess renewable energy via the production of hydrogen which can be stored for later use after re-electrification. Such a clean renewable energy cycle based on hydrogen is commonly referred to as the hydrogen economy. This review deals with cluster model systems of the three main components of the hydrogen economy i.e. hydrogen generation hydrogen storage and hydrogen re-electrification and their basic physical principles. We then present examples of contemporary research on few atom clusters both in the gas phase and deposited to show that by studying these clusters as simplified models a mechanistic understanding of the underlying physical and chemical processes can be obtained. Such an understanding will inspire and enable the design of novel materials needed for advancing the hydrogen economy.
Law and Policy Review on Green Hydrogen Potential in ECOWAS Countries
Mar 2022
Publication
This paper aims to review existing energy-sector and hydrogen-energy-related legal policy and strategy documents in the ECOWAS region. To achieve this aim current renewable-energyrelated laws acts of parliament executive orders presidential decrees administrative orders and memoranda were analyzed. The study shows that ECOWAS countries have strived to design consistent legal instruments regarding renewable energy in developing comprehensive legislation and bylaws to consolidate it and to encourage investments in renewable energy. Despite all these countries having a legislative basis for regulating renewable energy there are still weaknesses that revolve around the law and policy regarding its possible application in green hydrogen production and use. The central conclusion of this review paper is that ECOWAS member states presently have no official hydrogen policies nor bylaws in place. The hydrogen rise presents a challenge and opportunity for members to play an important role in the fast-growing global hydrogen market. Therefore these countries need to reform their regulatory frameworks and align their policies by introducing green hydrogen production in order to accomplish their green economy transition for the future and to boost the continent’s sustainable development.
Next Steps for the Gas Grid- Future Gas Series Part 1
Sep 2014
Publication
Policy Connect Carbon Connect and sector and Parliamentary experts have collaborated to present options for the gas grid to play a useful role in the UK’s transition to a low carbon energy system through the widespread use of low carbon gas. The report calls on Government to support the transition to a more flexible gas grid that uses various forms of gas including low carbon gases such as hydrogen and biomethane.
Going Global: An Update on Hydrogen Valleys and their Role in the New Hydrogen Economy
Sep 2022
Publication
Hydrogen is a key cornerstone of the green transformation of the global economy and a major lever to diversify energy supplies and accelerate the clean energy transition. Hydrogen will be essential to replace natural gas coal and oil in hard-to-decarbonise sectors in industry mobility and energy. Hydrogen Valleys will become an important cornerstone in producing importing transporting and using clean hydrogen in Europe.
Beyond Traditional Energy Sector Coupling: Conserving and Efficient Use of Local Resources
Jun 2022
Publication
Decentralisation and sector coupling are becoming increasingly crucial for the decarbonisation of the energy system. Resources such as waste and water have high energy recovery potential and are required as inputs for various conversion technologies; however waste and water have not yet been considered in sector coupling approaches but only in separate examinations. In this work an open-source sector coupling optimisation model considering all of these resources and their utilisation is developed and applied in a test-bed in an Israeli city. Our investigations include an impact assessment of energy recovery and resource utilisation in the transition to a hydrogen economy with regard to the inclusion of greywater and consideration of emissions. Additionally sensitivity analyses are performed in order to assess the complexity level of energy recovery. The results demonstrate that waste and water energy recovery can provide high contributions to energy generation. Furthermore greywater use can be vital to cover the water demands in scarcity periods thus saving potable water and enabling the use of technology. Regarding the transition to hydrogen technologies resource energy recovery and management have an even higher effect than in the original setup. However without appropriate resource management a reduction in emissions cannot be achieved. Furthermore the sensitivity analyses indicate the existence of complex relationships between energy recovery technologies and other energy system operations.
Roadmap to Achieving Sustainable Development via Green Hydrogen
Jan 2023
Publication
The conversion to renewable energy can be achieved when cities and communities start to depend on sustainable resources capable of providing for the basic needs of the community along with a reduction in the daily problems and issues that people face. These issues such as poverty hunger sanitation and economic difficulties are highlighted in the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) which aim to limit and eradicate these problems along with other environmental obstacles including climate change and Greenhouse Gases (GHGs). These SDGs containing 17 goals target each sector and provide propositions to solve such devastating problems. Hydrogen contributes to the targets of these sustainable developments since through its implementation in different industries the levels of GHG will drop and thus contribute to the climate change which Earth is facing. Further through the usage of such resources many job opportunities will also be developed thus enhancing the economy and lifting the status of society. This paper classifies the four different types of hydrogen and outlines the differences between them. The paper then emphasizes the importance of green hydrogen use within the shipping industry transportation and infrastructure along with economic and social development through job opportunities. Furthermore this paper provides case studies tackling green hydrogen status in the United Kingdom United States of America and European Union as well as Africa United Arab of Emirates and Asia. Finally challenges and recommendations concerning the green hydrogen industry are addressed. This paper aims to relate the use of green hydrogen to the direct and indirect goals of SDG.
Development of a Hydrogen Valley for Exploitation of Green Hydrogen in Central Italy
Oct 2022
Publication
Green hydrogen exploitation plays a crucial role in achieving carbon neutrality by 2050. Hydrogen in fact provides a number of key benefits for the energy system due to its integrability with other clean technologies for energy production and consumption. This paper is aimed at presenting the project of recovery of an abandoned industrial area located in central Italy by developing a site for the production of green hydrogen. To this aim the analysis of the territorial and industrial context of the area allowed us to design the project phases and to define the sizing criteria of the hydrogen production plant. The results of a preliminary cost–benefit analysis show that a huge initial investment is required and that in the short term the project is sustainable only with a very large public grant. On the other hand in the long term the project is sustainable and the benefits significantly overcome the costs.
Roadmap Towards Zero Emissions, BEVs and FCEVs
Oct 2021
Publication
A “combined world” of fuel cell electric vehicles (FCEVs) and battery electric vehicles (BEVs) will create a greener transportation sector faster and cheaper than one of the solutions alone. Hydrogen Council with analytical support from McKinsey and Company published a report that highlights the complementary roles of FCEVs and BEVs in a decarbonised transportation sector.
The analysis found that each solution has comparable systemic efficiencies and similar CO2 life cycle intensity. From the vehicle user perspective FCEVs and BEVs will provide the flexibility and convenience to meet their specific context of use and geographic location. Additionally the costs of two supporting infrastructure for FCEVs and BEVs is cheaper than one infrastructure network primarily due to the reduced peak loads and avoidance of costly upgrades on the electricity grid. The report’s messages were developed in dialogue with the Observatory Group which consisted of representatives of government agencies and academia as well as associations and companies active in sectors like regenerative electricity generation electricity grid equipment manufacturing electric vehicle charging fleet management.
The paper can be found on their website.
The analysis found that each solution has comparable systemic efficiencies and similar CO2 life cycle intensity. From the vehicle user perspective FCEVs and BEVs will provide the flexibility and convenience to meet their specific context of use and geographic location. Additionally the costs of two supporting infrastructure for FCEVs and BEVs is cheaper than one infrastructure network primarily due to the reduced peak loads and avoidance of costly upgrades on the electricity grid. The report’s messages were developed in dialogue with the Observatory Group which consisted of representatives of government agencies and academia as well as associations and companies active in sectors like regenerative electricity generation electricity grid equipment manufacturing electric vehicle charging fleet management.
The paper can be found on their website.
ASSET Study on Geolocation of Hydrogen Production in the EU
Oct 2021
Publication
The modelling underpinning the scenarios for the EU long-term strategy did not include hydrogen trade. The assumption was that each Member State (MS) supplies its own needs for hydrogen and synthetic fuels. The goal of this study is to develop a model to undertake optimal geolocation of hydrogen production between MS including the possibility to trade hydrogen and therefore use the RES potential more optimally and decrease energy system costs at EU level. Specifically the new model helps to identify the geo-location of: 1. Renewable energy production (PV wind biomass hydro) 2. Location of RES and hydrogen production facilities 3. Storage infrastructure also for natural gas and storage technologies i.e. batteries pumping etc. 4. Infrastructure by road and pipeline
Everything About Hydrogen Podcast: Hydrogen Review of 2022
Oct 2022
Publication
In order to wrap Season 3 of EAH appropriately we are honored to have our most popular EAH guest back with us Alicia Eastman President and Co-Founder of Intercontinental Energy is here to help us review the big hydrogen happenings of 2022 and preview some of the most important predictions and expectations for the sector coming for 2023.
The podcast can be found on their website.
The podcast can be found on their website.
The More the Merrier? Actors and Ideas in the Evolution of Germany Hydrogen Policy Discourse
Feb 2023
Publication
Hydrogen has set high hopes for decarbonization due to its flexibility and ability to decarbonize sectors of the economy where direct electrification appears unviable. Broad hydrogen policies have therefore started to emerge. Nevertheless it is still a rather niche technology not integrated or adopted at scale and not regulated through particular policy provisions. The involved stakeholders are thus still rushing to set the agenda over the issue. All this plays out publicly and shapes the public discourse. This paper explores how the composition of stakeholders their positions and the overall discourse structure have developed and accompanied the political agenda-setting in the early public debate on hydrogen in Germany. We use discourse network analysis of media where stakeholders' claims-making is documented and their positions can be tracked over time. The public discourse on hydrogen in Germany shows the expected evolution of statements in connection with the two milestones chosen for the analyses the initiation of the Gas 2030 Dialogue and the publication of the National Hydrogen Strategy. Interestingly the discourse was comparatively feeble in the immediate aftermath of the respective milestones but intensified in a consolidation phase around half a year later. Sequencing the discourse and contextualizing its content relative to political societal and economic conditions in a diachronic way is essential because it helps to avoid misinterpreting the development of stakeholders' standpoints as conflict-driven rather than mere repositioning. Thus we observed no discourse “polarization” even though potentially polarizing issues were already present in the debate.
Potential of Producing Green Hydrogen in Jordan
Nov 2022
Publication
Green hydrogen is becoming an increasingly important energy supply source worldwide. The great potential for the use of hydrogen as a sustainable energy source makes it an attractive energy carrier. In this paper we discuss the potential of producing green hydrogen in Jordan. Aqaba located in the south of Jordan was selected to study the potential for producing green hydrogen due to its proximity to a water source (i.e. the Red Sea). Two models were created for two electrolyzer types using MATLAB. The investigated electrolyzers were alkaline water (ALK) and polymeric electrolyte membrane (PEM) electrolyzers. The first model was used to compare the required capacity of the PV solar system using ALK and PEM from 2022 to 2025 depending on the learning curves for the development of these technologies. In addition this model was used to predict the total investment costs for the investigated electrolyzers. Then a techno-economic model was constructed to predict the feasibility of using this technology by comparing the use of a PV system and grid electricity as sources for the production of hydrogen. The net present value (NPV) and levelized cost of hydrogen (LCOH) were used as indicators for both models. The environmental effect according to the reduction of CO2 emissions was also taken into account. The annual production of hydrogen was 70.956 million kg. The rate of hydrogen production was 19.3 kg/s and 1783 kg/s for ALK and PEM electrolyzers respectively. The LCOH was 4.42 USD/kg and 3.13 USD/kg when applying electricity from the grid and generated by the PV system respectively. The payback period to cover the capital cost of the PV system was 11 years of the project life with a NPV of USD 441.95 million. Moreover CO2 emissions can be reduced by 3042 tons/year by using the PV as a generation source instead of fossil fuels to generate electricity. The annual savings with respect to the reduction of CO2 emissions was USD 120135.
Everything About Hydrogen Podcast: Supplying the Building Blocks of an Energy Revolution
Apr 2021
Publication
On this episode of Everything About Hydrogen the team is joined by Sam French Business Development Director at JM who spent some time speaking with us about the transition from grey hydrogen to low-carbon generation technologies and what steps the UK - and countries all over the world - to use hydrogen as part of the pathway to a sustainable energy future.
The podcast can be found on their website
The podcast can be found on their website
Future Energy Scenarios 2021
Jul 2022
Publication
Our Future Energy Scenarios (FES) draw on hundreds of experts’ views to model four credible energy pathways for Britain over coming decades. Matthew Wright our head of strategy and regulation outlines what the 2021 outlook means for consumers society and the energy system itself.<br/>This year’s Future Energy Scenarios insight reveals a glimpse of a Britain that is powered with net zero carbon emissions.<br/>Our analysis shows that our country can achieve its legally-binding carbon reduction targets: in three out of four scenarios in the analysis the country reaches net zero carbon emissions by 2050 with Leading the Way – our most ambitious scenario – achieving it in 2047 and becoming net negative by 2050.
The Socio-technical Dynamics of Net-zero Industrial Megaprojects: Outside-in and Inside-out Analyses of the Humber Industrial Cluster
Feb 2023
Publication
Although energy-intensive industries are often seen as ‘hard-to-decarbonise’ net-zero megaprojects for industrial clusters promise to improve the technical and economic feasibility of hydrogen fuel switching and carbon capture and storage (CCS). Mobilising insights from the megaproject literature this paper analyses the dynamics of an ambitious first-of-kind net-zero megaproject in the Humber industrial cluster in the United Kingdom which includes CCS and hydrogen infrastructure systems industrial fuel switching CO2 capture green and blue hydrogen production and hydrogen storage. To analyse the dynamics of this emerging megaproject the article uses a socio-technical system lens to focus on developments in technology actors and institutions. Synthesising multiple megaproject literature insights the paper develops a comprehensive framework that addresses both aggregate (‘outside-in’) developments and the endogenous (‘inside-out’) experiences and activities regarding three specific challenges: technical system integration actor coordination and institutional alignment. Drawing on an original dataset involving expert interviews (N = 46) site visits (N = 7) and document analysis the ‘outside-in’ analysis finds that the Humber megaproject has progressed rapidly from outline visions to specific technical designs enacted by new coalitions and driven by strengthening policy targets and financial support schemes. The complementary ‘inside-out’ analysis however also finds 12 alignment challenges that can delay or derail materialisation of the plans. While policies are essential aggregate drivers institutional misalignments presently also prevent project-actors from finalising design and investment decisions. Our analysis also finds important tensions between the project's high-pace delivery focus (to meet government targets) and allowing sufficient time for pilot projects learning-by-doing and design iterations.
Future Energy Scenarios 2018
Jul 2018
Publication
Welcome to our Future Energy Scenarios. These scenarios which stimulate debate and help inform the decisions that will shape our energy future have never been more important – especially when you consider the extent to which the energy landscape is being transformed.
Life Cycle Costing Approaches of Fuel Cell and Hydrogen Systems: A Literature Review
Apr 2023
Publication
Hydrogen is a versatile energy carrier which can be produced from variety of feedstocks stored and transported in various forms for multi-functional end-uses in transportation energy and manufacturing sectors. Several regional national and supra-national climate policy frameworks emphasize the need value and importance of Fuel cell and Hydrogen (FCH) technologies for deep and sector-wide decarbonization. Despite these multi-faceted advantages familiar and proven FCH technologies such as alkaline electrolysis and proton-exchange membrane fuel cell (PEMFC) often face economic technical and societal barriers to mass-market adoption. There is no single unified standardized and globally harmonized normative definition of costs. Nevertheless the discussion and debates surrounding plausible candidates and/or constituents integral for assessing the economics and value proposition of status-quo as well as developmental FCH technologies are steadily increasing—Life Cycle Costing (LCC) being one of them if not the most important outcome of such exercises.<br/>To that end this review article seeks to improve our collective understanding of LCC of FCH technologies by scrutinizing close to a few hundred publications drawn from representative databases—SCOPUS and Web of Science encompassing several tens of technologies for production and select transportation storage and end-user utilization cases. This comprehensive review forms part of and serves as the basis for the Clean Hydrogen Partnership funded SH2E project whose ultimate goal is the methodical development a formal set of principles and guardrails for evaluating the economic environmental and social impacts of FCH technologies. Additionally the SH2E projects will also facilitate the proper comparison of different FCH technologies whilst reconciling range of technologies methodologies modelling assumptions and parameterization found in existing literature.
Price Promises, Trust Deficits and Energy Justice: Public Perceptions of Hydrogen Homes
Oct 2023
Publication
In an era characterised by political instability economic uncertainty and mounting environmental pressures hydrogen fuel is being positioned as a critical piece of the global energy security and clean energy agenda. The policy push is noteworthy in the United Kingdom where the government is targeting industrial decarbonisation via hydrogen while exploring a potential role for hydrogen-fuelled home appliances. Despite the imperative to secure social acceptance for accelerating the diffusion of low-carbon energy technologies public perceptions of hydrogen homes remain largely underexplored by the researcher community. In response this analysis draws on extensive focus group data to understand the multi-dimensional nature of social acceptance in the context of the domestic hydrogen transition. Through an integrated mixed-methods multigroup analysis the study demonstrates that socio-political and market acceptance are strongly interlinked owing to a trust deficit in the government and energy industry coupled to underlying dissatisfaction with energy markets. At the community level hydrogen homes are perceived as a potentially positive mechanism for industrial regeneration and local economic development. Households consider short-term disruptive impacts to be tolerable provided temporary disconnection from the gas grid does not exceed three days. However to strengthen social acceptance clearer communication is needed regarding the spatial dynamics and equity implications of the transition. The analysis concludes that existing trust deficits will need to be overcome which entails fulfilling not only a ‘price promise’ on the cost of hydrogen appliances but also enacting a ‘price pledge’ on energy bills. These deliverables are fundamental to securing social acceptance for hydrogen homes.
Divergent Consumer Preferences and Visions for Cooking and Heating Technologies in the United Kingdom: Make Our Homes Clean, Safe, Warm and Smart!
Aug 2023
Publication
Decarbonising the global housing stock is imperative for reaching climate change targets. In the United Kingdom hydrogen is currently being tested as a replacement fuel for natural gas which could be used to supply low-carbon energy to parts of the country. Transitioning the residential sector towards a net-zero future will call for an inclusive understanding of consumer preferences for emerging technologies. In response this paper explores consumer attitudes towards domestic cooking and heating technologies and energy appliances of the future which could include a role for hydrogen hobs and boilers in UK homes. To access qualitative evidence on this topic we conducted ten online focus groups (N = 58) with members of the UK public between February and April 2022. The study finds that existing gas users wish to preserve the best features of gas cooking such as speed responsiveness and controllability but also desire the potential safety and aesthetic benefits of electric systems principally induction hobs. Meanwhile future heating systems should ensure thermal comfort ease of use energy efficiency and smart performance while providing space savings and noise reduction alongside demonstrable green benefits. Mixed-methods multigroup analysis suggests divergence between support levels for hydrogen homes which implies a degree of consumer heterogeneity. Foremost we find that domestic hydrogen acceptance is positively associated with interest and engagement with renewable energy and fuel poverty pressures. We conclude that internalising the perspectives of consumers is critical to enabling constructive socio-technical imaginaries for low-carbon domestic energy futures.
Energy System Changes in 1.5 °C, Well Below 2 °C and 2 °C Scenarios
Dec 2018
Publication
Meeting the Paris Agreement's goal to limit global warming to well below 2 °C and pursuing efforts towards 1.5 °C is likely to require more rapid and fundamental energy system changes than the previously-agreed 2 °C target. Here we assess over 200 integrated assessment model scenarios which achieve 2 °C and well-below 2 °C targets drawn from the IPCC's fifth assessment report database combined with a set of 1.5 °C scenarios produced in recent years. We specifically assess differences in a range of near-term indicators describing CO2 emissions reductions pathways changes in primary energy and final energy across the economy's major sectors in addition to more detailed metrics around the use of carbon capture and storage (CCS) negative emissions low-carbon electricity and hydrogen.
Hydrogen Towards Sustainable Transition: A Review of Production, Economic, Environmental Impact and Scaling Factors
Sep 2023
Publication
Currently meeting the global energy demand is largely dependent on fossil fuels such as natural gas coal and oil. Fossil fuels represent a danger to the Earth’s environment and its biological systems. The utilisation of these fuels results in a rise in atmospheric CO2 levels which in turn triggers global warming and adverse changes in the climate. Furthermore these represent finite energy resources that will eventually deplete. There is a pressing need to identify and harness renewable energy sources as a replacement for fossil fuels in the near future. This shift is expected to have a minimal environmental impact and would contribute to ensuring energy security. Hydrogen is considered a highly desirable fuel option with the potential to substitute depleting hydrocarbon resources. This concise review explores diverse methods of renewable hydrogen production with a primary focus on solar wind geothermal and mainly water-splitting techniques such as electrolysis thermolysis photolysis and biomass-related processes. It addresses their limitations and key challenges hampering the global hydrogen economy’s growth including clean value chain creation storage transportation production costs standards and investment risks. The study concludes with research recommendations to enhance production efficiencies and policy suggestions for governments to mitigate investment risks while scaling up the hydrogen economy.
Does Time Matter? A Multi-level Assessment of Delayed Energy Transitions and Hydrogen Pathways in Norway
Mar 2023
Publication
The Russian invasion of Ukraine has undeniably disrupted the EU's energy system and created a window of opportunity for an acceleration of the low-carbon energy transition in Europe. As the trading bloc's biggest gas supplier Norway faces the imminent threat of fast-depleting gas reserves and declining value for its exports. Norway is trying to beat the clock by aggressively exploring more petroleum therefore delaying its energy transition. In anticipation of the future drop in gas prices Norway is counting on blue hydrogen to valorise its gas resources before gradually shifting to green hydrogen export. Against this background this article seeks to understand how changes in the EU's energy landscape have affected the energy export sector and low-carbon hydrogen export developments in Norway from a multi-level perspective. Using the exploratory scenario approach the article assesses the implications of the different petroleum exploration outcomes on the development of the low-carbon hydrogen export market in Norway. The findings show that despite gas discoveries there is an urgent need for a phase-out plan for the Norwegian petroleum sector. For low-carbon hydrogen to play an important role in Norway's energy transition time is of the essence and action needs to be taken during this window of opportunity. An industrial sector and its value chain could take 25 years to transform which means that actions and policies for a full transformation pathway need to take place in Norway by 2025 to be ready for a climate-neutral Europe in 2050.
Mapping the Future of Green Hydrogen: Integrated Analysis of Poland and the EU’s Development Pathways to 2050
Aug 2023
Publication
This article presents the results of a comparative scenario analysis of the “green hydrogen” development pathways in Poland and the EU in the 2050 perspective. We prepared the scenarios by linking three models: two sectoral models for the power and transport sectors and a Computable General Equilibrium model (d-Place). The basic precondition for the large-scale use of hydrogen in both Poland and in European Union countries is the pursuit of ambitious greenhouse gas reduction targets. The EU plans indicate that the main source of hydrogen will be renewable energy (RES). “Green hydrogen” is seen as one of the main methods with which to balance energy supply from intermittent RES such as solar and wind. The questions that arise concern the amount of hydrogen required to meet the energy needs in Poland and Europe in decarbonized sectors of the economy and to what extent can demand be covered by internal production. In the article we estimated the potential of the production of “green hydrogen” derived from electrolysis for different scenarios of the development of the electricity sector in Poland and the EU. For 2050 it ranges from 76 to 206 PJ/y (Poland) and from 4449 to 5985 PJ/y (EU+). The role of hydrogen as an energy storage was also emphasized highlighting its use in the process of stabilizing the electric power system. Hydrogen usage in the energy sector is projected to range from 67 to 76 PJ/y for Poland and from 1066 to 1601 PJ/y for EU+ by 2050. Depending on the scenario this implies that between 25% and 35% of green hydrogen will be used in the power sector as a long-term energy storage.
From Grey to Green and from West to East: The Geography and Innovation Trajectories of Hydrogen Fuel Technologies
May 2023
Publication
Despite the potential of hydrogen as a sustainable energy carrier existing studies analysing the recent evolution of this technology are scattered typically focusing on a specific type of hydrogen technology within a single country or region. In this paper we adopt a broader perspective providing an overview of the evolution of knowledge generation across different types of hydrogen fuel and the leading countries in developing new technologies in this field. Using data from the European Patent Office we map knowledge generation on hydrogen fuel technologies exploring its geographic distribution and its link with environmental sustainability. While the United States leads the generation of new knowledge other Asian and European countries show greater dynamism in growth and specialisation. Our study shows that although hydrogen fuel is considered environmentally friendly most recent technological developments are still related to fossil energy sources. However a faster growth rate is observed in the knowledge of hydrogen fuel from renewable sources pointing to a promising path towards sustainability. Moreover our analysis of the knowledge interconnection between different hydrogen types suggests that those technologies developed for hydrogen based on fossil energy sources have enabled novel applications based on renewable energies.
Hydrogen Deep Ocean Link: A Global Sustainable Interconnected Energy Grid<br/><br/><br/>
Mar 2022
Publication
The world is undergoing a substantial energy transition with an increasing share of intermittent sources of energy on the grid which is increasing the challenges to operate the power grid reliably. An option that has been receiving much focus after the COVID pandemic is the development of a hydrogen economy. Challenges for a hydrogen economy are the high investment costs involved in compression storage and long-distance transportation. This paper analyses an innovative proposal for the creation of hydrogen ocean links. It intends to fill existing gaps in the creation of a hydrogen economy with the increase in flexibility and viability for hydrogen production consumption compression storage and transportation. The main concept behind the proposals presented in this paper consists of using the fact that the pressure in the deep sea is very high which allows a thin and cheap HDPE tank to store and transport large amounts of pressurized hydrogen in the deep sea. This is performed by replacing seawater with pressurized hydrogen and maintaining the pressure in the pipes similar to the outside pressure. Hydrogen Deep Ocean Link has the potential of increasing the interconnectivity of different regional energy grids into a global sustainable interconnected energy system.
Synergistic Integration of Hydrogen Energy Economy with UK’s Sustainable Development Goals: A Holistic Approach to Enhancing Safety and Risk Mitigation
Oct 2023
Publication
Hydrogen is gaining prominence as a sustainable energy source in the UK aligning with the country’s commitment to advancing sustainable development across diverse sectors. However a rigorous examination of the interplay between the hydrogen economy and the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) is imperative. This study addresses this imperative by comprehensively assessing the risks associated with hydrogen production storage transportation and utilization. The overarching aim is to establish a robust framework that ensures the secure deployment and operation of hydrogen-based technologies within the UK’s sustainable development trajectory. Considering the unique characteristics of the UK’s energy landscape infrastructure and policy framework this paper presents practical and viable recommendations to facilitate the safe and effective integration of hydrogen energy into the UK’s SDGs. To facilitate sophisticated decision making it proposes using an advanced Decision-Making Trial and Evaluation Laboratory (DEMATEL) tool incorporating regret theory and a 2-tuple spherical linguistic environment. This tool enables a nuanced decision-making process yielding actionable insights. The analysis reveals that Incident Reporting and Learning Robust Regulatory Framework Safety Standards and Codes are pivotal safety factors. At the same time Clean Energy Access Climate Action and Industry Innovation and Infrastructure are identified as the most influential SDGs. This information provides valuable guidance for policymakers industry stakeholders and regulators. It empowers them to make well-informed strategic decisions and prioritize actions that bolster safety and sustainable development as the UK transitions towards a hydrogen-based energy system. Moreover the findings underscore the varying degrees of prominence among different SDGs. Notably SDG 13 (Climate Action) exhibits relatively lower overall distinction at 0.0066 and a Relation value of 0.0512 albeit with a substantial impact. In contrast SDG 7 (Clean Energy Access) and SDG 9 (Industry Innovation and Infrastructure) demonstrate moderate prominence levels (0.0559 and 0.0498 respectively) each with its unique influence emphasizing their critical roles in the UK’s pursuit of a sustainable hydrogen-based energy future.
Drifting toward Alliance Innovation: Patent Collaboration Relationships and Development in China’s Hydrogen Energy Industry from a Network Perspective
Mar 2024
Publication
The hydrogen energy industry as one of the most important directions for future energy transformation can promote the sustainable development of the global economy and of society. China has raised the development of hydrogen energy to a strategic position. Based on the patent data in the past two decades this study investigates the collaborative innovation relationships in China’s hydrogen energy field using complex network theory. Firstly patent data filed between 2003 and 2023 are analyzed and compared in terms of time geography and institutional and technological dimensions. Subsequently a patent collaborative innovation network is constructed to explore the fundamental characteristics and evolutionary patterns over five stages. Furthermore centrality measures and community detection algorithms are utilized to identify core entities and innovation alliances within the network which reveal that China’s hydrogen energy industry is drifting toward alliance innovation. The study results show the following: (1) the network has grown rapidly in size and scope over the last two decades and evolved from the initial stage to the multi-center stage before forming innovation alliances; (2) core innovative entities are important supports and bridges for China’s hydrogen energy industry and control most resources and maintain the robustness of the whole network; (3) innovation alliances reveal the closeness of the collaborative relationships between innovative entities and the potential landscape of China’s hydrogen energy industry; and (4) most of the innovation alliances cooperate only on a narrow range of technologies which may hinder the overall sustainable growth of the hydrogen energy industry. Thereafter some suggestions are put forward from the perspective of an industrial chain and innovation chain which may provide a theoretical reference for collaborative innovation and the future development and planning in the field of hydrogen energy in China.
Parameterization Proposal to Determine the Feasibility of Geographic Areas for the Green Hydrogen Industry under Socio-environmental and Technical Constraints in Chile
Oct 2023
Publication
Chile abundant in solar and wind energy resources presents significant potential for the production of green hydrogen a promising renewable energy vector. However realizing this potential requires an understanding of the most suitable locations for the installation of green hydrogen industries. This study proposes a quantitative methodology that identifies and ranks potential public lands for industrial use based on a range of technical parameters (such as solar and wind availability) and socio-environmental considerations (including land use restrictions and population density). The results reveal optimal locations that can facilitate informed sustainable decision-making for large-scale green hydrogen implementation in Chile. While this methodology does not replace project-specific technical or environmental impact studies it provides a flexible general classification to guide initial site selection. Notably this approach can be applied to other regions worldwide with abundant solar and wind resources such as Australia and Northern Africa promoting more effective and sustainable global decision-making for green hydrogen production.
Hydrogen and the Global Energy Transition—Path to Sustainability and Adoption across All Economic Sectors
Feb 2024
Publication
This perspective article delves into the critical role of hydrogen as a sustainable energy carrier in the context of the ongoing global energy transition. Hydrogen with its potential to decarbonize various sectors has emerged as a key player in achieving decarbonization and energy sustainability goals. This article provides an overview of the current state of hydrogen technology its production methods and its applications across diverse industries. By exploring the challenges and opportunities associated with hydrogen integration we aim to shed light on the pathways toward achieving a sustainable hydrogen economy. Additionally the article underscores the need for collaborative efforts among policymakers industries and researchers to overcome existing hurdles and unlock the full potential of hydrogen in the transition to a low-carbon future. Through a balanced analysis of the present landscape and future prospects this perspective article aims to contribute valuable insights to the discourse surrounding hydrogen’s role in the global energy transition.
Willingness of Chinese Households to Pay Extra for Hydrogen-fuelled Buses: A Survey Based on Willingness to Pay
Mar 2023
Publication
Hydrogen-fuelled buses play an important role in the construction of low-carbon cities as a means of green travel. Beijing as a pilot city of hydrogen-fuelled buses in China is very important in the promotion of hydrogen-fuelled buses in China. Unfortunately the public acceptance of hydrogen-fuelledfuelled buses and their environmental positive externality value have not been studied. In this paper we investigated the willingness of Beijing households to pay for the promotion of hydrogen-fuelled buses and its influencing factors by means of a web-based questionnaire. The spike model was also used to estimate the willingness to pay (WTP) for hydrogen buses. The results show that the WTP of Beijing households is CNY 3.19 per trip. The value of a positive environmental externality is approximately CNY 29.15 million per trip. Household income level environmental knowledge individual environmental ethics and perceived behavioural control are the main influencing factors of WTP. Therefore policymakers should strengthen publicity efforts to increase individuals’ environmental awareness and environmental ethics and optimize the layout of hydrogen-fuelled bus schedules and riding experiences to improve individuals’ perceptual and behaviour control. Finally the positive environmental externality value of hydrogen buses should be valued which will help increase investor interest.
Global Hydrogen and Synfuel Exchanges in an Emission-Free Energy System
Apr 2023
Publication
This study investigates the global allocation of hydrogen and synfuels in order to achieve the well below 2 ◦C preferably 1.5 ◦C target set in the Paris Agreement. For this purpose TIMES Integrated Assessment Model (TIAM) a global energy system model is used. In order to investigate global hydrogen and synfuel flows cost potential curves are aggregated and implemented into TIAM as well as demand technologies for the end use sectors. Furthermore hydrogen and synfuel trades are established using liquid hydrogen transport (LH2 ) and both new and existing technologies for synfuels are implemented. To represent a wide range of possible future events four different scenarios are considered with different characteristics of climate and security of supply policies. The results show that in the case of climate policy the renewable energies need tremendous expansion. The final energy consumption is shifting towards the direct use of electricity while certain demand technologies (e.g. aviation and international shipping) require hydrogen and synfuels for full decarbonization. Due to different security of supply policies the global allocation of hydrogen and synfuel production and exports is shifting while the 1.5 ◦C target remains feasible in the different climate policy scenarios. Considering climate policy Middle East Asia is the preferred region for hydrogen export. For synfuel production several regions are competitive including Middle East Asia Mexico Africa South America and Australia. In the case of security of supply policies Middle East Asia is sharing the export volume with Africa while only minor changes can be seen in the synfuel supply.
Advancing the Affordable and Clean Energy in Large Energy-consuming Economies: The Role of Green Transition, Complexity-based, and Geostrategy Policy
Aug 2023
Publication
With decreasing costs of the clean technologies the balanced scales of the Sustainable Development Goal 7 targets e.g. energy equity (EE) energy security (ES) and environmental sustainability (EVS) are quickly changing. This fundamental balancing process is a key requirement for a net-zero future. Accordingly this research analyzes the regime-switching effect of Hydrogen economy as the green transition sharing economy and economic complexity as the complexity-based and geopolitical risks and energy prices as the geostrategy policies on the Goal 7 targets. To this end a Markov-switching panel vector autoregressive method with regime-heteroskedasticity is applied to study advancing the Goal 7 in the world's twenty-five large energy consumers during 2004–2020. Concerning the parameters and statistics of the model the results refer to the existence of two regimes associated with the Goal 7 corners called “upward and downward” regimes for EE and “slightly upward and sharply upward” regimes for ES and EVS. It is revealed that the vulnerability of EE and ES targets is considerably reduced when the regime switches to the dominant regime that is “downward” and “slightly upward” regimes respectively and that of the EVS target remains unaffected. Through the impulse-response analysis the findings denote that the first hypothesis of the efficiency of the Hydrogen economy in promoting the Goal 7 targets is insignificant. However the significant short-term and dynamic shock effects of the complexity-based and geostrategy policies on the Hydrogen economy are detected which will be a feasible alternative assessment in advancing the Goal 7. Further the complexity-based policies support the Goal 7 targets under different regimes especially in the short- and medium-term. Hence the second hypothesis regarding the effectiveness of the complexity-based policies in promoting Goal 7 targets is confirmed. The third hypothesis concerning the complexity of the impact of geostrategy policies on the Goal 7 targets is verified. Particularly the switching process towards the Goal 7 may not necessarily be restricted by the geopolitical risks. Moreover EE is supported through energy prices in the short-term under both regimes while they are non-conductive to promote ES and EVS through time. Accordingly the decision-makers should acknowledge adopting a regime-switching path forward for ensuring the time-varying balanced growth of the Goal 7 targets as the impact of the suggested policy instruments is asymmetric.
Near-term Infrastructure Rollout and Investment Strategies for Net-zero Hydrogen Supply Chains
Feb 2024
Publication
Low-carbon hydrogen plays a key role in European industrial decarbonization strategies. This work investigates the cost-optimal planning of European low-carbon hydrogen supply chains in the near term (2025–2035) comparing several hydrogen production technologies and considering multiple spatial scales. We focus on mature hydrogen production technologies: steam methane reforming of natural gas biomethane reforming biomass gasification and water electrolysis. The analysis includes carbon capture and storage for natural gas and biomass-derived hydrogen. We formulate and solve a linear optimization model that determines the costoptimal type size and location of hydrogen production and transport technologies in compliance with selected carbon emission targets including the EU fit for 55 target and an ambitious net-zero emissions target for 2035. Existing steam methane reforming capacities are considered and optimal carbon and biomass networks are designed. Findings identify biomass-based hydrogen production as the most cost-efficient hydrogen technology. Carbon capture and storage is installed to achieve net-zero carbon emissions while electrolysis remains costdisadvantageous and is deployed on a limited scale across all considered sensitivity scenarios. Our analysis highlights the importance of spatial resolution revealing that national perspectives underestimate costs by neglecting domestic transport needs and regional resource constraints emphasizing the necessity for highly decarbonized infrastructure designs aligned with renewable resource availabilities.
Impacts of Green Energy Expansion and Gas Import Reduction on South Korea’s Economic Growth: A System Dynamics Approach
Jun 2023
Publication
South Korea ranking ninth among the largest energy consumers and seventh in carbon dioxide emissions from 2016 to 2021 faces challenges in energy security and climate change mitigation. The primary challenge lies in transitioning from fossil fuel dependency to a more sustainable and diversified energy portfolio while meeting the growing energy demand for continued economic growth. This necessitates fostering innovation and investment in the green energy sector. This study examines the potential impact of green energy expansion (through integrating renewable energy and hydrogen production) and gas import reduction on South Korea’s economic growth using a system dynamics approach. The findings indicate that increasing investment in green energy can result in significant growth rates ranging from 7% to 35% between 2025 and 2040. Under the expansion renewable energy scenario (A) suggests steady but sustainable economic growth in the long term while the gas import reduction scenario (B) displays a potential for rapid economic growth in the short term with possible instability in the long term. The total production in Scenario B is USD 2.7 trillion in 2025 and will increase to USD 4.8 trillion by 2040. Scenario C which combines the effects of both Scenarios A and B results in consistently high economic growth rates over time and a substantial increase in total production by 2035–2040 from 20% to 46%. These findings are critical for policymakers in South Korea as they strive for sustainable economic growth and transition to renewable energy.
International Competitiveness of Low-carbon Hydrogen Supply to the Northwest European Market
Oct 2022
Publication
This paper analyses which sources of low-carbon hydrogen for the Northwest European market are most competitive taking into account costs of local production conversion and transport. Production costs of electrolysis are strongly affected by local renewable electricity costs and capacity factors. Transport costs are the lowest by pipelines for distances under 10000 km with costs linearly increasing with distance. For larger distances transport as ammonia is more efficient with less relation to distance despite higher conversion costs. The most competitive low-carbon hydrogen supply to the Northwest European market appears to be local Steam Methane Reforming with Carbon Capture and Storage when international gas prices return back to historical levels. When gas prices however remain high then import from Morocco with electrolysis directly connected to offshore wind generation is found to be the most competitive source of low-carbon hydrogen. These conclusions are robust for various assumptions on costs and capacity factors.
Identifying Informed Beliefs about Hydrogen Technologies Across the Energy Supply Chain
Apr 2023
Publication
Developing a thriving hydrogen industry will depend on public and community support. Past research mainly focusing on the acceptance of hydrogen fuelling stations and cars suggests that people generally support hydrogen energy technology (HET). Few studies have however considered how people think about other components of the hydrogen supply chain (i.e. technologies required to make store transport and use hydrogen). Moreover there has been limited research investigating how people interpret and develop beliefs about HET after being presented with technical information. This paper attempts to address these research gaps by presenting the findings from four face-to-face focus group discussions conducted in Australia. The findings suggest that people have differing views about HET which depends on the type of technology and these views influence levels of support. The study also revealed concerns about a range of other factors that have yet to be considered in hydrogen acceptance research (e.g. perceived water use efficiency and indirect benefits). The findings highlight the value of qualitative research for identifying salient beliefs that shape attitudes towards HET and provide recommendations for future research and how to effectively communicate with the public and communities about an emerging hydrogen industry.
Prospects and Challenges of Green Hydrogen Economy via Multi-Sector Global Symbiosis in Qatar
Jan 2021
Publication
Low carbon hydrogen can be an excellent source of clean energy which can combat global climate change and poor air quality. Hydrogen based economy can be a great opportunity for a country like Qatar to decarbonize its multiple sectors including transportation shipping global energy markets and industrial sectors. However there are still some barriers to the realization of a hydrogen-based economy which includes large scale hydrogen production cost infrastructure investments bulk storage transport & distribution safety consideration and matching supply-demand uncertainties. This paper highlights how the aforementioned challenges can be handled strategically through a multi-sector industrial-urban symbiosis for the hydrogen supply chain implementation. Such symbiosis can enhance the mutual relationship between diverse industries and urban planning by exploring varied scopes of multi-purpose hydrogen usage (i.e. clean energy source as a safer carrier industrial feedstock and intermittent products vehicle and shipping fuel and international energy trading etc.) both in local and international markets. It enables individual entities and businesses to participate in the physical exchange of materials by-products energy and water with strategic advantages for all participants. Besides waste/by-product exchanges several different kinds of synergies are also possible such as the sharing of resources and shared facilities. The diversified economic base regional proximity and the facilitation of rules strategies and policies may be the key drivers that support the creation of a multi-sector hydrogen supply chain in Qatar.
Tourist Preferences for Fuel Cell Vehicle Rental: Going Green with Hydrogen on the Island of Tenerife
Mar 2023
Publication
Using a discrete choice experiment (DCE) a survey of international tourists on the island of Tenerife is conducted to examine preferences for fuel cell vehicle (FCV) rental while on vacation. Survey respondents were generally supportive of FCVs and willing to hire one as part of their trip but for most individuals this is contingent on an adequate fuel station infrastructure. A latent class model was used to identify three distinct groups; one of which potentially represent early adopters e they have a high willingness-to-pay (WTP) for green hydrogen and are more likely to accept a low number of fuel stations but it could be challenging to convince them to use FCVs if they are not run on green hydrogen.
Fuelling the Transition Podcast: Using Hydrogen to Achieve Net-zero
Jan 2021
Publication
In order to achieve the EU’s target of 55% carbon reduction by 2030 hydrogen will have to make a key contribution to the energy mix. With many applications in industrial heat mobility power and chemical refineries hydrogen can be used to decarbonise where electrification is not possible. Equinor is a broad energy company with 21000 employees developing oil gas wind and solar energy in more than 30 countries worldwide. Equinor have been at the forefront of promoting hydrogen projects in Europe and developing low-carbon hydrogen solutions. In this episode Johan Leuraers Chief Consultant - Policy and Regulatory Affairs at Equinor and John Williams Head of Hydrogen Expertise Cluster at AFRY Management Consulting join us to discuss the main barriers to the uptake of hydrogen and the next steps to kick-start the hydrogen economy.
The podcast can be found on their website.
The podcast can be found on their website.
Expert Perceptions of Game-changing Innovations towards Net Zero
Dec 2022
Publication
Current technological improvements are yet to put the world on track to net-zero which will require the uptake of transformative low-carbon innovations to supplement mitigation efforts. However the role of such innovations is not yet fully understood; some of these ‘miracles’ are considered indispensable to Paris Agreement-compliant mitigation but their limitations availability and potential remain a source of debate. We evaluate such potentially game-changing innovations from the experts’ perspective aiming to support the design of realistic decarbonisation scenarios and better-informed net-zero policy strategies. In a worldwide survey 260 climate and energy experts assessed transformative innovations against their mitigation potential at-scale availability and/or widescale adoption and risk of delayed diffusion. Hierarchical clustering and multi-criteria decision-making revealed differences in perceptions of core technological innovations with next generation energy storage alternative building materials iron-ore electrolysis and hydrogen in steelmaking emerging as top priorities. Instead technologies highly represented in well-below-2◦C scenarios seemingly feature considerable and impactful delays hinting at the need to re-evaluate their role in future pathways. Experts’ assessments appear to converge more on the potential role of other disruptive innovations including lifestyle shifts and alternative economic models indicating the importance of scenarios including non-technological and demand-side innovations. To provide insights for expert elicitation processes we finally note caveats related to the level of representativeness among the 260 engaged experts the level of their expertise that may have varied across the examined innovations and the potential for subjective interpretation to which the employed linguistic scales may be prone to.
The Potential Role of a Hydrogen Network in Europe
Jul 2023
Publication
Europe’s electricity transmission expansion suffers many delays despite its significance for integrating renewable electricity. A hydrogen network reusing the existing gas network could not only help to supply the demand for low-emission fuels but could also balance variations in wind and solar energies across the continent and thus avoid power grid expansion. Our investigation varies the allowed expansion of electricity and hydrogen grids in net-zero CO2 scenarios for a sector-coupled European energy system capturing transmission bottlenecks renewable supply and demand variability and pipeline retrofitting and geological storage potentials. We find that a hydrogen network connecting regions with low-cost and abundant renewable potentials to demand centers electrofuel production and cavern storage sites reduces system costs by up to 26 bnV/a (3.4%). Although expanding both networks together can achieve the largest cost reductions by 9.9% the expansion of neither is essential for a net-zero system as long as higher costs can be accepted and flexibility options allow managing transmission bottlenecks.
Can the Hydrogen Economy Concept be the Solution to the Future Energy Crisis?
Feb 2022
Publication
The Hydrogen Economy concept is being proposed as a means of reducing and eventually decarbonising the world’s energy use. It looks to hydrogen as being a replacement for methane (natural gas) and generally as a way of removing all fossil fuels from the energy supply. The concept however has at least four flaws as follows: (1) hydrogen has significantly different properties to methane; (2) hydrogen has properties that create significant hazards; (3) hydrogen has a very small initiation (activation) energy; and (4) liquid hydrogen cannot readily replace liquefied natural gas (LNG). Hydrogen’s hazards will prevent it from being accepted in a societal sense. To the question ‘Can the Hydrogen Economy concept be the solution to the future energy crisis?’ the answer is ‘no’. Hydrogen has and will have a role in world energy but that role will be limited to industry. For the future we need an advanced electric economy.
Transition Analysis of Budgetary Allocation for Projects on Hydrogen-Related Technologies in Japan
Oct 2020
Publication
Hydrogen technologies are promising candidates of new energy technologies for electric power load smoothing. However regardless of long-term public investment hydrogen economy has not been realized. In Japan the National Research and Development Institute of New Energy and Industrial Technology Development Organization (NEDO) a public research-funding agency has invested more than 200 billion yen in the technical development of hydrogen-related technologies. However hydrogen technologies such as fuel cell vehicles (FCVs) have not been disseminated yet. Continuous and strategic research and development (R&D) are needed but there is a lack of expertise in this field. In this study the transition of the budgetary allocations by NEDO were analyzed by classifying NEDO projects along the hydrogen supply chain and research stage. We found a different R&D focus in different periods. From 2004 to 2007 empirical research on fuel cells increased with the majority of research focusing on standardization. From 2008 to 2011 investment in basic research of fuel cells increased again the research for verification of fuel cells continued and no allocation for research on hydrogen production was confirmed. Thereafter the investment trend did not change until around 2013 when practical application of household fuel cells (ENE-FARM) started selling in 2009 in terms of hydrogen supply chain. Hydrogen economy requires a different hydrogen supply infrastructure that is an existing infrastructure of city gas for ENE-FARM and a dedicated infrastructure for FCVs (e.g. hydrogen stations). We discussed the possibility that structural inertia could prevent the transition to investing more in hydrogen infrastructure from hydrogen utilization technology. This work has significant implications for designing national research projects to realize hydrogen economy.
Determining the Production and Transport Cost for H2 on a Global Scale
May 2022
Publication
Hydrogen (H2) produced using renewable energy could be used to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in industrial sectors such as steel chemicals transportation and energy storage. Knowing the delivered cost of renewable H2 is essential to decisionmakers looking to utilize it. The cheapest location to source it from as well as the transport method and medium are also crucial information. This study presents a Monte Carlo simulation to determine the delivered cost for renewable H2 for any usage location globally as well as the most cost-effective production location and transport route from nearly 6000 global locations. Several industrially dense locations are selected for case studies the primary two being Cologne Germany and Houston United States. The minimum delivered H2 cost to Cologne is 9.4 €/kg for small scale (no pipelines considered) shipped from northern Egypt as a liquid organic hydrogen carrier (LOHC) and 7.6 €/kg piped directly as H2 gas from southern France for large scale (pipelines considered). For smallscale H2 in Houston the minimum delivered cost is 8.6 €/kg trucked as H2 gas from the western Gulf of Mexico and 7.6 €/kg for large-scale demand piped as H2 gas from southern California. The south-west United States and Mexico northern Chile the Middle East and north Africa south-west Africa and north-west Australia are identified as the regions with the lowest renewable H2 cost potential with production costs ranging from 6.7—7.8 €/kg in these regions. Each is able to supply differing industrially dominant areas. Furthermore the effect of parameters such as year of construction electrolyser and H2 demand is analysed. For the case studies in Houston and Cologne the delivered H2 cost is expected to reduce to about 7.8 €/kg by 2050 in Cologne (no pipelines considered PEM electrolyser) and 6.8 €/kg in Houston.
Greenhouse Gas Reduction Potential and Cost-effectiveness of Economy-wide Hydrogen-natural Gas Blending for Energy End Uses
Sep 2022
Publication
North American and European jurisdictions are considering repurposing natural gas infrastructure to deliver a lower carbon blend of natural gas and hydrogen; this paper evaluates the greenhouse gas reduction potential and cost-effectiveness of the repurposing. The analysis uses a bottom-up economy-wide energy-systems model of an emission-intensive jurisdiction Alberta Canada to evaluate 576 long-term scenarios from 2026 to 2050. Many scenarios were included to give the analysis broad international applicability and differ by sector hydrogen blending intensity carbon policy and hydrogen infrastructure development. Twelve hydrogen production technologies are compared in a long-term greenhouse gas and cost analysis including advanced technologies. Autothermal reforming with carbon capture provides both lower-carbon and lower-cost hydrogen compared to most other technologies in most futures even with high fugitive natural gas production emissions. Using hydrogen-natural gas blends for end-use energy applications eliminates 1–2% of economy-wide GHG emissions and marginal GHG abatement costs become negative at carbon prices over $300/tonne. The findings are useful for stakeholders expanding the international low-carbon hydrogen economy and governments engaged in formulating decarbonization policies and are considering hydrogen as an option.
A Comprehensive Resilience Assessment Framework for Hydrogen Energy Infrastructure Development
Jun 2023
Publication
In recent years sustainable development has become a challenge for many societies due to natural or other disruptive events which have disrupted economic environmental and energy infrastructure growth. Developing hydrogen energy infrastructure is crucial for sustainable development because of its numerous benefits over conventional energy sources. However the complexity of hydrogen energy infrastructure including production utilization and storage stages requires accounting for potential vulnerabilities. Therefore resilience needs to be considered along with sustainable development. This paper proposes a decision-making framework to evaluate the resilience of hydrogen energy infrastructure by integrating resilience indicators and sustainability contributing factors. A holistic taxonomy of resilience performance is first developed followed by a qualitative resilience assessment framework using a novel Intuitionistic fuzzy Weighted Influence Nonlinear Gauge System (IFWINGS). The results highlighted that Regulation and legislation Government preparation and Crisis response budget are the most critical resilience indicators in the understudy hydrogen energy infrastructure. A comparative case study demonstrates the practicality capability and effectiveness of the proposed approach. The results suggest that the proposed model can be used for resilience assessment in other areas.
Fission Battery Markets and Economic Requirements
Oct 2022
Publication
Fission Batteries (FBs) are nuclear reactors for customers with heat demands less than 250 MWt—replacing oil and natural gas in a low-carbon economy. Individual FBs would have outputs between 5 and 30 MWt. The small FB size has two major benefits: (1) the possibility of mass production and (2) ease of transport and leasing with return of used FBs to factory for refurbishing and reuse. Comparatively these two features are lacking in larger conventional reactors. Larger reactors are not transportable and thus can’t obtain the manufacturing economics possible with mass production or the operational advantages of returning the FB to the factory after use. Leasing places the regulatory maintenance and fuel-cycle burden on the leasing company that is minimized by large-fleet operations of identical units. The markets and economic requirements for FBs were examined. The primary existing markets are industrial biofuels off-grid electricity and container ships. Two major future markets were identified—advanced biofuels and hydrogen. In a low-carbon world the competitive price range for heat is $20–50/MWh ($6–15/million BTU) and $70–115/MWh for non-grid electricity. The primary competition in these sectors is likely to be biofuels and hydrogen produced using alternative energy sources—grid electricity is non-competitive. Larger users of energy have alternative low-carbon energy choices including modular nuclear reactors and fossil fuels with carbon capture and sequestration (CCS).
Ireland National Hydrogen Strategy
Jul 2023
Publication
The National Hydrogen Strategy sets out the strategic vision on the role that hydrogen will play in Ireland’s energy system looking to its long-term role as a key component of a zero-carbon economy and the short-term actions that need to be delivered over the coming years to enable the development of the hydrogen sector in Ireland.<br/>The Strategy is being developed for three primary reasons:<br/>1. Decarbonising our economy providing a solution to hard to decarbonise sectors where electrification is not feasible or cost-effective<br/>2. Enhancing our energy security through the development of an indigenous zero carbon renewable fuel which can act as an alternative to the 77% of our energy system which today relies on fossil fuel imports<br/>3. Developing industrial opportunities through the potential development of export markets for renewable hydrogen and other areas such as Sustainable Aviation Fuels<br/>The Strategy considers the needs of the entire hydrogen value chain including production end-uses transportation and storage safety regulation markets innovation and skills.<br/>It also sets out that Ireland will focus its efforts on the scale up and production of renewable ""green"" hydrogen as it supports both our decarbonisation needs and energy security needs given our vast indigenous renewable resources. Renewable hydrogen is a renewable and zero-carbon fuel that can play a key role in the ""difficult-to-decarbonise"" sectors of our economy where other solutions such as direct electrification are not feasible or cost effective.<br/>In the coming years renewable hydrogen is envisioned to play an important role as a zero-emission source of dispatchable flexible electricity as a long duration store of renewable energy in decarbonising industrial processes and as a transport fuel in sectors such as heavy goods transport maritime and aviation. The Strategy will provide clarity for stakeholders on how we expect the hydrogen economy to develop and scale up over the coming decades across the entire value chain.
Perspectives on Hydrogen
Dec 2022
Publication
Humankind has an urgent need to reduce carbon dioxide emissions. Such a challenge requires deep transformation of the current energy system in our society. Achieving this goal has given an unprecedented role to decarbonized energy vectors. Electricity is the most consolidated of such vectors and a molecular vector is in the agenda to contribute in the future to those end uses that are difficult to electrify. Additionally energy storage is a critical issue for both energy vectors. In this communication discussion on the status hopes and perspectives of the hydrogen contribution to decarbonization are presented emphasizing bottlenecks in key aspects such as education reskilling and storage capacity and some concerns about the development of a flexible portfolio of technologies that could affect the contribution and impact of the whole hydrogen value chain in society. This communication would serve to the debate and boost discussion about the topic.
The Viability of Implementing Hydrogen in the Commonwealth of Massachusetts
Sep 2022
Publication
In recent years there has been an increased interest in hydrogen energy due to a desire to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by utilizing hydrogen for numerous applications. Some countries (e.g. Japan Iceland and parts of Europe) have made great strides in the advancement of hydrogen generation and utilization. However in the United States there remains significant reservation and public uncertainty on the use and integration of hydrogen into the energy ecosystem. Massachusetts similar to many other states and small countries faces technical infrastructure policy safety and acceptance challenges with regards to hydrogen production and utilization. A hydrogen economy has the potential to provide economic benefits a reduction in greenhouse gas emissions and sector coupling to provide a resilient energy grid. In this paper the issues associated with integrating hydrogen into Massachusetts and other similar states or regions are studied to determine which hydrogen applications have the most potential understand the technical and integration challenges and identify how a hydrogen energy economy may be beneficial. Additionally hydrogen’s safety concerns and possible contribution to greenhouse gas emissions are also reviewed. Ultimately a set of eight recommendations is made to guide the Commonwealth’s consideration of hydrogen as a key component of its policies on carbon emissions and energy.
A Perspective on the Overarching Role of Hydrogen, Ammonia, and Methanol Carbon-Neutral Fuels towards Net Zero Emission in the Next Three Decades
Dec 2022
Publication
Arguably one of the most important issues the world is facing currently is climate change. At the current rate of fossil fuel consumption the world is heading towards extreme levels of global temperature rise if immediate actions are not taken. Transforming the current energy system from one largely based on fossil fuels to a carbon-neutral one requires unprecedented speed. Based on the current state of development direct electrification of the future energy system alone is technically challenging and not enough especially in hard-to-abate sectors like heavy industry road trucking international shipping and aviation. This leaves a considerable demand for alternative carbon-neutral fuels such as green ammonia and hydrogen and renewable methanol. From this perspective we discuss the overarching roles of each fuel in reaching net zero emission within the next three decades. The challenges and future directions associated with the fuels conclude the current perspective paper.
Modeling the Global Annual Carbon Footprint for the Transportation Sector and a Path to Sustainability
Jun 2023
Publication
The transportation industry’s transition to carbon neutrality is essential for addressing sustainability concerns. This study details a model for calculating the carbon footprint of the transportation sector as it progresses towards carbon neutrality. The model aims to support policymakers in estimating the potential impact of various decisions regarding transportation technology and infrastructure. It accounts for energy demand technological advancements and infrastructure upgrades as they relate to each transportation market: passenger vehicles commercial vehicles aircraft watercraft and trains. A technology roadmap underlies this model outlining anticipated advancements in batteries hydrogen storage biofuels renewable grid electricity and carbon capture and sequestration. By estimating the demand and the technologies that comprise each transportation market the model estimates carbon emissions. Results indicate that based on the technology roadmap carbon neutrality can be achieved by 2070 for the transportation sector. Furthermore the model found that carbon neutrality can still be achieved with slippage in the technology development schedule; however delays in infrastructure updates will delay carbon neutrality while resulting in a substantial increase in the cumulative carbon footprint of the transportation sector.
Policy Design for Diffusing Hydrogen Economy and Its Impact on the Japanese Economy for Carbon Neutrality by 2050: Analysis Using the E3ME-FTT Model
Nov 2023
Publication
To achieve carbon neutrality in Japan by 2050 renewable energy needs to be used as the main energy source. Based on the constraints of various renewable energies the importance of hydrogen cannot be ignored. This study aimed to investigate the diffusion of hydrogen demand technologies in various sectors and used projections and assumptions to investigate the hydrogen supply side. By performing simulations with the E3ME-FTT model and comparing various policy scenarios with the reference scenario the economic and environmental impacts of the policy scenarios for hydrogen diffusion were analyzed. Moreover the impact of realizing carbon neutrality by 2050 on the Japanese economy was evaluated. Our results revealed that large-scale decarbonization via hydrogen diffusion is possible (90% decrease of CO2 emissions in 2050 compared to the reference) without the loss of economic activity. Additionally investments in new hydrogen-based and other low-carbon technologies in the power sector freight road transport and iron and steel industry can improve the gross domestic product (1.6% increase in 2050 compared to the reference) as they invoke economic activity and require additional employment (0.6% increase in 2050 compared to the reference). Most of the employment gains are related to decarbonizing the power sector and scaling up the hydrogen supply sector while a lot of job losses can be expected in the mining and fossil fuel industries.
Investment Estimation in the Energy and Power Sector towards Carbon Neutrality Target: A Case Study of China
Mar 2023
Publication
The transition towards low-carbon energy and power has been extensively studied by research institutions and scholars. However the investment demand during the transition process has received insufficient attention. To address this gap an energy investment estimation method is proposed in this paper which takes the unit construction costs and potential development of major technology in the energy and power sector as input. The proposed estimation method can comprehensively assess the investment demand for various energy sources in different years including coal oil natural gas biomass power and hydrogen energy. Specifically we applied this method to estimate the investment demand of China’s energy and power sector from 2020 to 2060 at five year intervals. The results indicate that China’s cumulative energy investment demand over this period is approximately 127 trillion CNY with the power sector accounting for the largest proportion at 92.35% or approximately 117 trillion CNY. The calculated cumulative investment demand is consistent with the findings of several influential research institutions providing validation for the proposed method.
Assessing the Social Acceptance of Key Technologies for the German Energy Transition
Jan 2022
Publication
Background: The widespread use of sustainable energy technologies is a key element in the transformation of the energy system from fossil-based to zero-carbon. In line with this technology acceptance is of great importance as resistance from the public can slow down or hinder the construction of energy technology projects. The current study assesses the social acceptance of three energy technologies relevant for the German energy transition: stationary battery storage biofuel production plants and hydrogen fuel station. Methods: An online survey was conducted to examine the public’s general and local acceptance of energy technologies. Explored factors included general and local acceptance public concerns trust in relevant stakeholders and attitudes towards financial support. Results: The results indicate that general acceptance for all technologies is slightly higher than local acceptance. In addition we discuss which public concerns exist with regard to the respective technologies and how they are more strongly associated with local than general acceptance. Further we show that trust in stakeholders and attitudes towards fnancial support is relatively high across the technologies discussed. Conclusions: Taken together the study provides evidence for the existence of a “general–local” gap despite measuring general and local acceptance at the same level of specifcity using a public sample. In addition the collected data can provide stakeholders with an overview of worries that might need to be addressed when planning to implement a certain energy project.
An Eco-technoeconomic Analysis of Hydrogen Production using Solid Oxide Electrolysis Cells that Accounts for Long-term Degradation
Sep 2022
Publication
This paper presents an eco-technoeconomic analysis (eTEA) of hydrogen production via solid oxide electrolysis cells (SOECs) aimed at identifying the economically optimal size and operating trajectories for these cells. Notably degradation effects were accounted by employing a data-driven degradationbased model previously developed by our group for the analysis of SOECs. This model enabled the identification of the optimal trajectories under which SOECs can be economically operated over extended periods of time with reduced degradation rate. The findings indicated that the levelized cost of hydrogen (LCOH) produced by SOECs (ranging from 2.78 to 11.67 $/kg H2) is higher compared to gray hydrogen generated via steam methane reforming (SMR) (varying from 1.03 to 2.16 $ per kg H2) which is currently the dominant commercial process for large-scale hydrogen production. Additionally SOECs generally had lower life cycle CO2 emissions per kilogram of produced hydrogen (from 1.62 to 3.6 kg CO2 per kg H2) compared to SMR (10.72–15.86 kg CO2 per kg H2). However SOEC life cycle CO2 emissions are highly dependent on the CO2 emissions produced by its power source as SOECs powered by high-CO2-emission sources can produce as much as 32.22 kg CO2 per kg H2. Finally the findings of a sensitivity analysis indicated that the price of electricity has a greater influence on the LCOH than the capital cost.
Decarbonizing the European Energy System in the Absence of Russian Gas: Hydrogen Uptake and Carbon Capture Developments in the Power, Heat and Industry Sectors
Dec 2023
Publication
Hydrogen and carbon capture and storage are pivotal to decarbonize the European energy system in a broad range of pathway scenarios. Yet their timely uptake in different sectors and distribution across countries are affected by supply options of renewable and fossil energy sources. Here we analyze the decarbonization of the European energy system towards 2060 covering the power heat and industry sectors and the change in use of hydrogen and carbon capture and storage in these sectors upon Europe’s decoupling from Russian gas. The results indicate that the use of gas is significantly reduced in the power sector instead being replaced by coal with carbon capture and storage and with a further expansion of renewable generators. Coal coupled with carbon capture and storage is also used in the steel sector as an intermediary step when Russian gas is neglected before being fully decarbonized with hydrogen. Hydrogen production mostly relies on natural gas with carbon capture and storage until natural gas is scarce and costly at which time green hydrogen production increases sharply. The disruption of Russian gas imports has significant consequences on the decarbonization pathways for Europe with local energy sources and carbon capture and storage becoming even more important. Given the highlighted importance of carbon capture and storage in reaching the climate targets it is essential that policymakers ameliorate regulatory challenges related to these value chains.
Identifying Social Aspect Related to the Hydrogen Economy: Review, Synthesis, and Research Perspectives
Oct 2023
Publication
Energy transition will reshape the power sector and hydrogen is a key energy carrier that could contribute to energy security. The inclusion of sustainability criteria is crucial for the adequate design/deployment of resilient hydrogen networks. While cost and environmental metrics are commonly included in hydrogen models social aspects are rarely considered. This paper aims to identify the social criteria related to the hydrogen economy by using a systematic hybrid literature review. The main contribution is the identification of twelve social aspects which are described ranked and discussed. “Accessibility” “Information” “H2 markets” and “Acceptability” are now emerging as the main themes of hydrogen-related social research. Identified gaps are e.g. lack of the definition of the value of H2 for society insufficient research for “socio-political” aspects (e.g. geopolitics wellbeing) scarce application of social lifecycle assessment and the low amount of works with a focus on social practices and cultural issues.
Technical, Economic, Carbon Footprint Assessment, and Prioritizing Stations for Hydrogen Production Using Wind Energy: A Case Study
Jul 2021
Publication
While Afghanistan’s power sector is almost completely dependent on fossil fuels it still cannot meet the rising power demand of this country. Deploying a combination of renewable energy systems with hydrogen production as the excess energy storage mechanism could be a sustainable long-term approach for addressing some of the energy problems of Afghanistan. Since Badakhshan is known to have a higher average wind speed than any other Afghan province in this study a technical economic and carbon footprint assessment was performed to investigate the potential for wind power and hydrogen production in this province. Wind data of four stations in Badakhshan were used for technical assessment for three heights of 10 30 and 40 m using the Weibull probability distribution function. This technical assessment was expanded by estimating the energy pattern factor probability of wind speeds greater than 5 m/s wind power density annual power output and annual hydrogen output. This was followed by an economic assessment which involved computing the Leveled Cost Of Energy (LCOE) the Leveled Cost Of Hydrogen (LCOH) and the payback period and finally an carbon footprint assessment which involved estimating the consequent CO2 reduction in two scenarios. The assessments were performed for 22 turbines manufactured by reputable companies with capacities ranging from 600 kW to 2.3 MW. The results showed that the entire Badakhshan province and especially Qal’eh-ye Panjeh and Fayazabad have excellent potentials in terms of wind energy that can be harvested for wind power and hydrogen production. Also wind power generation in this province will be highly cost-effective as the produced electricity will cost about one-third of the price of electricity supplied by the government. For better evaluation the GIS maps of wind power and hydrogen outputs were prepared using the IDW method. These maps showed that the eastern and northeastern parts of Badakhshan province have higher wind power-hydrogen production potentials. The results of ranking the stations with SWARA-EDAS hybrid MCDM methods showed that Qal’eh-ye Panjeh station was the best location to produce hydrogen from wind energy.
The Industry Transformation from Fossil Fuels to Hydrogen will Reorganize Value Chains: Big Picture and Case Studies for Germany
Jan 2024
Publication
In many industries low-carbon hydrogen will substitute fossil fuels in the course of the transformation to climate neutrality. This paper contributes to understanding this transformation. This paper provides an overview of energy- and emission-intensive industry sectors with great potential to defossilize their production processes with hydrogen. An assessment of future hydrogen demand for various defossilization strategies in Germany that rely on hydrogen as a feedstock or as an energy carrier to a different extent in the sectors steel chemicals cement lime glass as well as pulp and paper is carried out. Results indicate that aggregate industrial hydrogen demand in those industries would range between 197 TWh and 298 TWh if production did not relocate abroad for any industry sector. The range for hydrogen demand is mainly due to differences in the extent of hydrogen utilization as compared to alternative transformation paths for example based on electrification. The attractiveness of production abroad is then assessed based on the prospective comparative cost advantage of relocating parts of the value chain to excellent production sites for low-carbon hydrogen. Case studies are provided for the steel industry as well as the chemical industry with ethylene production through methanol and the production of urea on the basis of ammonia. The energy cost of the respective value chains in Germany is then compared to the case of value chains partly located in regions with excellent conditions for renewable energies and hydrogen production. The results illustrate that at least for some processes – as ammonia production – relocation to those favorable regions may occur due to substantial comparative cost advantages.
The Hydrogen Storage Challenge: Does Storage Method and Size Affect the Cost and Operational Flexbility of Hydrogen Supply Chains?
Jun 2023
Publication
Hydrogen is seen as a key energy vector in future energy systems due to its ability to be stored in large volumes for long periods providing energy flexibility and security. Despite the importance of storage in hydrogen's potential role in a zero-carbon energy system many techno-economic analyses fail to adequately model different storage methods in hydrogen supply chains often ignoring storage requirements altogether. Therefore this paper uses a data-driven techno-economic analysis (TEA) tool to examine the effect of storage size and cost on three different 2030 hydrogen supply chain scenarios: wind-based solar-based and mixed-source grid electrolysis. For varying storage sizes and specific capital costs the overall levelised cost of hydrogen (LCOH) including production storage and delivery to a constant demand varies significantly. The LCOH ranges from V3.90 e12.40/kgH2 V5.50e12.75/kgH2 and V2.80e15.65/kgH2 for the wind-based solar-based and mixed-source grid scenarios respectively with lower values for scenarios with low-cost storage. This highlights the critical role of low-cost hydrogen storage in realising the energy flexibility and security electrolytic hydrogen can provide.
Economic Assessment of Hydrogen Production in a Renewable Energy Community in Italy
Feb 2023
Publication
Renewable Energy Community (REC) is a new paradigm in European Union to produce transform share and sell renewables at a local consumer level also via e-fuel (i.e. hydrogen). This work investigates the economic feasibility of a hydrogen Power-to-Gas (PtG) system realized inside a REC using only excess renewable electricity not consumed by REC itself. A single centralized photovoltaic (PV) plant is directly connected to an electrolyser; a hydrogen compressor and two hydrogen storages at low and high pressure complete the PtG system. A scenario of a REC composed by 450 residential electric users (around 1000 people) has been analysed coupled with described PtG considering eight different sizes of PV plant. In the study Italian subsidies to REC shared energy are evaluated as incentives to hydrogen production. An optimal size of PtG components for each PV size is investigated at the limit of economical sustainability evaluating net present value (NPV) positive and near zero. Results show that for the considered REC it is possible to produce and sell up to around 3 tons per year of green hydrogen at most to the same lowest selling price declared currently in the Italian market (5 €/kg).
The Impact of the Russian War against Ukraine on the German Hydrogen Discourse
Jan 2024
Publication
This contribution delves into the transformative effects of the Russian–Ukrainian war on the discourse surrounding German hydrogen. Employing structural topical modeling (STM) on a vast dataset of 2192 newspaper articles spanning from 2019 to 2022 it aims to uncover thematic shifts attributed to the Russian invasion of Ukraine. The onset of the war in February 2022 triggered a significant pivot in the discourse shifting it from sustainability and climate-change mitigation to the securing of energy supplies through new partnerships particularly in response to Russia’s unreliability. Germany started exploring alternative energy trading partners like Canada and Australia emphasizing green hydrogen development. The study illustrates how external shocks can expedite the uptake of new technologies. The adoption of the “H2 readiness” concept for LNG terminals contributes to the successful implementation of green hydrogen. In summary the Russian–Ukrainian war profoundly impacted the German hydrogen discourse shifting the focus from sustainability to energy supply security underscoring the interconnectedness of energy security and sustainability in Germany’s hydrogen policy.
THyGA - Roadmap H2NG for Europe
May 2023
Publication
This report aims at summarizing the different stakeholders’ opinions on H2NG blends and cross them with the THyGA results to recommend some necessary actions to prepare the field for operational large-scale blending (liability delayed ignition adjustment…).
A Justice and Responsible Research and Innovation Exploration of Marine Renewables and Green Hydrogen in Island Communities
Oct 2022
Publication
Both marine renewables and hydrogen are being tested by the European Marine Energy Centre in the Orkney Islands Scotland. Given their emerging nature there is opportunity and risk pertaining to their development and deployment. This research will contribute conceptually and methodologically through the integration of energy justice and RRI conceptual frameworks strengthening justice analyses in relation to emerging energy technologies. This integrated model will be mobilized to critically scrutinize marine energy and green hydrogen as two future energy sources within the energy system. Following a technology-centered exploration of these technologies this work will then contextualise them into place-based considerations of Orkney’s just energy futures. Placing the technologies at the centre of the justice analysis insights will have the potential to inform their development and deployment in other locations. Exploring them within the local Orkney context will initiate an essential and important discussion of energy futures in this specific location. This presentation sets out the empirical and conceptual context for this work and presents a novel conceptual and methodological model combining energy justice and RRI frameworks. Moreover preliminary methods are discussed including methods and outcomes from co-creation workshops held at research design phase.
An Overview of Challenges for the Future of Hydrogen
Oct 2023
Publication
Hydrogen’s wide availability and versatile production methods establish it as a primary green energy source driving substantial interest among the public industry and governments due to its future fuel potential. Notable investment is directed toward hydrogen research and material innovation for transmission storage fuel cells and sensors. Ensuring safe and dependable hydrogen facilities is paramount given the challenges in accident control. Addressing material compatibility issues within hydrogen systems remains a critical focus. Challenges roadmaps and scenarios steer long-term planning and technology outlooks. Strategic visions align actions and policies encompassing societal and ecological dimensions. The confluence of hydrogen’s promise with material progress holds the prospect of reshaping our energy landscape sustainably. Forming collective future perspectives to foresee this emerging technology’s potential benefits is valuable. Our review article comprehensively explores the forthcoming challenges in hydrogen technology. We extensively examine the challenges and opportunities associated with hydrogen production incorporating CO2 capture technology. Furthermore the interaction of materials and composites with hydrogen particularly in the context of hydrogen transmission pipeline and infrastructure are discussed to understand the interplay between materials and hydrogen dynamics. Additionally the exploration extends to the embrittlement phenomena during storage and transmission coupled with a comprehensive examination of the advancements and hurdles intrinsic to hydrogen fuel cells. Finally our exploration encompasses addressing hydrogen safety from an industrial perspective. By illuminating these dimensions our article provides a panoramic view of the evolving hydrogen landscape.
Renewable Hydrogen: Modular Concepts from Production over Storage to the Consumer
Jan 2021
Publication
A simulation tool called HYDRA to optimize individual hydrogen infrastructure layouts is presented. The different electrolyzer technologies namely proton exchange membrane electrolysis anion exchange membrane electrolysis alkaline electrolysis and solid oxide electrolysis as well as hydrogen storage possibilities are described in more detail and evaluated. To illustrate the application opportunities of HYDRA three project examples are discussed. The examples include central and decentral applications while taking the usage of hydrogen into account.
The EU Hydrogen and Gas Decarbonisation Package: Help or Hindrance for the Development of a European Hydrogen Market?
Mar 2023
Publication
The European Commission has identified hydrogen as a key part of its decarbonisation strategy. The 2022 REPowerEU Strategy set a target of 20MT consumption of renewable hydrogen by 2030. The Commission is keen to promote a single European market in hydrogen similar to the current one for natural gas. To this end it has published proposals on the regulation of future European hydrogen infrastructure (pipelines storage facilities and import terminals). The European Council (representing Member States) and the European Parliament are finalising their amendments to the Commission proposals prior to ’trilogue’ negotiations and final agreement later this year. The paper ‘The EU Hydrogen and Gas Decarbonisation Package: help or hindrance for the development of a European hydrogen market?’ examines the European Commission proposals and their suitability for a developing hydrogen market.
Semi-Systematic Literature Review on the Contribution of Hydrogen to Universal Access to Energy in the Rationale of Sustainable Development Goal Target 7.1
Feb 2023
Publication
As part of the United Nations’ (UN) Sustainable Development Goal 7 (SDG7) SDG target 7.1 recognizes universal electrification and the provision of clean cooking fuel as two fundamental challenges for global society. Faltering progress toward SDG target 7.1 calls for innovative technologies to stimulate advancements. Hydrogen has been proposed as a versatile energy carrier to be applied in both pillars of SDG target 7.1: electrification and clean cooking. This paper conducts a semi-systematic literature review to provide the status quo of research on the application of hydrogen in the rationale of SDG 7.1 covering the technical integration pathways as well as the key economic environmental and social aspects of its use. We identify decisive factors for the future development of hydrogen use in the rationale of SDG target 7.1 and by complementing our analysis with insights from the related literature propose future avenues of research. The literature on electrification proposes that hydrogen can serve as a backup power supply in rural off-grid communities. While common electrification efforts aim to supply appliances that use lower amounts of electricity a hydrogen-based power supply can satisfy appliances with higher power demands including electric cook stoves while simultaneously supporting clean cooking efforts. Alternatively with the exclusive aim of stimulating clean cooking hydrogen is proposed to be used as a clean cooking fuel via direct combustion in distribution and utilization infrastructures analogous to Liquid Petroleum Gas (LPG). While expected economic and technical developments are seen as likely to render hydrogen technologies economically competitive with conventional fossil fuels in the future the potential of renewably produced hydrogen usage to reduce climate-change impacts and point-of-use emissions is already evident today. Social benefits are likely when meeting essential safety standards as a hydrogen-based power supply offers service on a high tier that might overachieve SDG 7.1 ambitions while hydrogen cooking via combustion fits into the existing social habits of LPG users. However the literature lacks clear evidence on the social impact of hydrogen usage. Impact assessments of demonstration projects are required to fill this research gap.
Future Energy Scenarios 2019
Jul 2019
Publication
Decarbonising energy is fundamental in the transition towards a sustainable future. Our Future Energy Scenarios aim to stimulate debate to inform the decisions that will help move us towards achieving carbon reduction targets and ultimately shape the energy system of the future.
The Prospects of Hydrogen in Achieving Net Zero Emissions by 2050: A Critical Review
May 2023
Publication
Hydrogen (H2) usage was 90 metric tonnes (Mt) in 2020 almost entirely for industrial and refining uses and generated almost completely from fossil fuels leading to nearly 900 Mt of carbon dioxide emissions. However there has been significant growth of H2 in recent years. Electrolysers' total capacity which are required to generate H2 from electricity has multiplied in the past years reaching more than 300 MW through 2021. Approximately 350 projects reportedly under construction could push total capacity to 54 GW by the year 2030. Some other 40 projects totalling output of more than 35 GW are in the planning phase. If each of these projects is completed global H2 production from electrolysers could exceed 8 Mt by 2030. It's an opportunity to take advantage of H2S prospects to be a crucial component of a clean safe and cost-effective sustainable future. This paper assesses the situation regarding H2 at the moment and provides recommendations for its potential future advancement. The study reveals that clean H2 is experiencing significant unparalleled commercial and political force with the amount of laws and projects all over the globe growing quickly. The paper concludes that in order to make H2 more widely employed it is crucial to significantly increase innovations and reduce costs. The practical and implementable suggestions provided to industries and governments will allow them to fully capitalise on this growing momentum.
Everything About Hydrogen Podcast: Policy Simplicity & Certainty
Mar 2023
Publication
On this episode of Everything About Hydrogen we have Daria Nochevnik the Director of Policy and Partnerships for Hydrogen Council.
The podcast can be found on their website.
The podcast can be found on their website.
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