Policy & Socio-Economics
On the Feasibility of Direct Hydrogen Utilisation in a Fossil-free Europe
Oct 2022
Publication
Hydrogen is often suggested as a universal fuel that can replace fossil fuels. This paper analyses the feasibility of direct hydrogen utilisation in all energy sectors in a 100% renewable energy system for Europe in 2050 using hour-by-hour energy system analysis. Our results show that using hydrogen for heating purposes has high costs and low energy efficiency. Hydrogen for electricity production is beneficial only in limited quantities to restrict biomass consumption but increases the system costs due to losses. The transport sector results show that hydrogen is an expensive alternative to liquid e-fuels and electrified transport due to high infrastructure costs and respectively low energy efficiency. The industry sector may benefit from hydrogen to reduce biomass at a lower cost than in the other energy sectors but electrification and e-methane may be more feasible. Seen from a systems perspective hydrogen will play a key role in future renewable energy systems but primarily as e-fuel feedstock rather than direct end-fuel in the hard-to-abate sectors.
Case Studies towards Green Transition in EU Regions: Smart Specialisation for Transformative Innovation
Oct 2022
Publication
This report analyses five case study reports in-depth across five EU countries as part of a broader analytical and critical exercise. This analytical work seeks to contribute to the development of new models for regional and local authorities aiming to boost support for Green Transition of their economies through smarter innovation policies using the smart specialisation (S3) approach. The work covered five regions from across the European Union representing a diversity of approaches to using S3 for Green Transition: the Basque Country in Spain the Centro region in Portugal the region of East and North Finland the region of Western Macedonia in Greece and the region of West Netherlands. The case studies included in this report consists of three sections on (i) Profile of the region and key development challenges; (ii) Innovation strategies and policies for green transition: incorporating societal challenges; (iii) Understanding and monitoring innovationled green transition. Drawing together the different elements presented the conclusion provides a summary overview of the case and the authors’ opinion on it.
A Global Review of the Hydrogen Energy Eco-System
Feb 2023
Publication
Climate change primarily caused by the greenhouse gases emitted as a result of the consumption of carbon-based fossil fuels is considered one of the biggest challenges that humanity has ever faced. Moreover the Ukrainian crisis in 2022 has complicated the global energy and food status quo more than ever. The permanency of this multifaceted fragility implies the need for increased efforts to have energy independence and requires long-term solutions without fossil fuels through the use of clean zero-carbon renewables energies. Hydrogen technologies have a strong potential to emerge as an energy eco-system in its production-storage-distribution-utilization stages with its synergistic integration with solar-wind-hydraulic-nuclear and other zero-carbon clean renewable energy resources and with the existing energy infrastructure. In this paper we provide a global review of hydrogen energy need related policies practices and state of the art for hydrogen production transportation storage and utilization.
Boosting Hydrogen through a European Hydrogen Bank
Mar 2023
Publication
Hydrogen is indispensable to decarbonise European industry and reach the EU’s 2030 climate targets and 2050 climate neutrality. It is one of the key technologies of Europe’s Net Zero Industry Act. By scaling up its production we will reduce the use of fossil fuels in European industries and serve the needs of hard-to-electrify sectors.
An Analysis of Renewable Energy Sources for Developing a Sustainable and Low-Carbon Hydrogen Economy in China
Apr 2023
Publication
A significant effort is required to reduce China’s dependency on fossil fuels while also supporting worldwide efforts to reduce climate change and develop hydrogen energy systems. A hydrogen economy must include renewable energy sources (RESs) which can offer a clean and sustainable energy source for producing hydrogen. This study uses an integrated fuzzy AHP–fuzzy TOPSIS method to evaluate and rank renewable energy sources for developing a hydrogen economy in China. This is a novel approach because it can capture the uncertainty and vagueness in the decision-making process and provide a comprehensive and robust evaluation of the alternatives. Moreover it considers multiple criteria and sub-criteria that reflect the environmental economic technical social and political aspects of RESs from the perspective of a hydrogen economy. This study identified five major criteria fifteen sub-criteria and six RES alternatives for hydrogen production. This integrated approach uses fuzzy AHP to evaluate and rank the criteria and sub-criteria and fuzzy TOPSIS to identify the most suitable and feasible RES. The results show that environmental economic and technical criteria are the most important criteria. Solar wind and hydropower are the top three RES alternatives that are most suitable and feasible. Furthermore biomass geo-thermal and tidal energy were ranked lower which might be due to the limitations and challenges in their adoption and performance in the context of the criteria and sub-criteria used for the analysis. This study’s findings add to the literature on guidelines to strategize for renewable energy adoption for the hydrogen economy in China.
EU Carbon Diplomacy: Assessing Hydrogen Security and Policy Impact in Australia and Germany
Dec 2021
Publication
Hydrogen is fast becoming a new international “super fuel” to accelerate global climate change ambitions. This paper has two inter-weaving themes. Contextually it focuses on the potential impact of the EU’s new Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) on fossil fuel-generated as opposed to green hydrogen imports. The CBAM as a transnational carbon adjustment mechanism has the potential to impact international trade in energy. It seeks both a level playing field between imports and EU internal markets (subject to ambitious EU climate change policies) and to encourage emissions reduction laggards through its “carbon diplomacy”. Countries without a price on carbon will be charged for embodied carbon in their supply chains when they export to the EU. Empirically we focus on two hydrogen export/import case studies: Australia as a non-EU state with ambitions to export hydrogen and Germany as an EU Member State reliant on energy imports. Energy security is central to energy trade debates but needs to be conceptualized beyond supply and demand economics to include geopolitics just transitions and the impacts of border carbon taxes and EU carbon diplomacy. Accordingly we apply and further develop a seven-dimension energy security-justice framework to the examples of brown blue and green hydrogen export/import hydrogen operations with varying carbon-intensity supply chains in Australia and Germany. Applying the framework we identify potential impact—risks and opportunities—associated with identified brown blue and green hydrogen export/import projects in the two countries. This research contributes to the emerging fields of international hydrogen trade supply chains and international carbon diplomacy and develops a potentially useful seven-dimension energy security-justice framework for energy researchers and policy analysts.
Impacts of Green Hydrogen for Steel, Ammonia, and Long-distance Transport on the Cost of Meeting Electricity, Heat, Cold, and Hydrogen Demand in 145 Countries Running on 100% Wind-water-solar
May 2023
Publication
As the world moves to clean renewable energy questions arise as to how best to produce and use hydrogen. Here we propose using hydrogen produced only by electrolysis with clean renewable electricity (green hydrogen). We then test the impact of producing such hydrogen intermittently versus continuously for steel and ammonia manufacturing and long-distance transport via fuel cells on the cost of matching electricity heat cold and hydrogen demand with supply and storage on grids worldwide. An estimated 79 32 and 91 Tg-H2/y of green hydrogen are needed in 2050 among 145 countries for steel ammonia and long-distance transport respectively. Producing and compressing such hydrogen for these processes may consume ~12.1% of the energy needed for end-use sectors in these countries after they transition to 100% wind-water-solar (WWS) in all such sectors. This is less than the energy needed for fossil fuels to power the same processes. Due to the variability of WWS electricity producing green hydrogen intermittently rather than continuously thus with electrolyzer use factors significantly below unity (0.2–0.65) may reduce overall energy costs with 100% WWS. This result is subject to model uncertainties but appears robust. In sum grid operators should incorporate intermittent green hydrogen production and use in planning.
The Impact of the Energy Crisis on the UK's Net Zero Transition
Mar 2023
Publication
Recent drastic increases in natural gas prices have brought into sharp focus the inherent tensions between net zero transitions energy security and affordability. We investigate the impact of different fuel prices on the energy system transition explicitly accounting for the increasingly coupled power and heating sectors and also incorporate the emerging hydrogen sector. The aim is to identify low-regret decisions and optimal energy system transitions for different fuel prices. We observe that the evolution of the heating sector is highly sensitive to the gas price whereas the composition of the power sector is not qualitatively impacted by gas prices. We also observe that bioenergy plays an important role in the energy system transition and the balance between gas price and biomass prices determines the optimal technology portfolios. The future evolution of the prices of these two resources is highly uncertain and future energy systems must be resilient to these uncertainties.
Economic Complexity of Green Hydrogen Production Technologies - A Trade Data-based Analysis of Country-sepcific Industrial Preconditions
May 2023
Publication
Countries with high energy demand but limited renewable energy potential are planning to meet part of their future energy needs by importing green hydrogen. For potential exporting countries in addition to sufficient renewable resources industrial preconditions are also relevant for the successful implementation of green hydrogen production value chains. A list of 36 “Green H2 Products” needed for stand-alone hydrogen production plants was defined and their economic complexity was analyzed using international trade data from 1995 to 2019. These products were found to be comparatively complex to produce and represent an opportunity for countries to enter new areas of the product space through green diversification. Large differences were revealed between countries in terms of industrial preconditions and their evolution over time. A detailed analysis of nine MENA countries showed that Turkey and Tunisia already possess industrial know-how in various green hydrogen technology components and perform only slightly worse than potential European competitors while Algeria Libya and Saudi Arabia score the lowest in terms of calculated hydrogen-related green complexity. These findings are supported by statistical tests showing that countries with a higher share of natural resources rents in their gross domestic product score significantly lower on economic and green complexity. The results thus provide new perspectives for assessing the capabilities of potential hydrogen-producing countries which may prove useful for policymakers and investors. Simultaneously this paper contributes to the theory of economic complexity by applying its methods to a new subset of products and using a dataset with long-term coverage.
An Analysis of the Potential of Hydrogen Energy Technology on Demand Side Based on a Carbon Tax: A Case Study in Japan
Dec 2022
Publication
Hydrogen energy is considered one of the main measures of zero carbonization in energy systems but high equipment and hydrogen costs hinder the development of hydrogen energy technology. The objectives of this study are to quantify the environmental advantages of hydrogen energy through a carbon tax and study the application potential of hydrogen energy technology in a regional distributed energy system (RDES). In this study various building types in the smart community covered by Japan’s first hydrogen energy pipeline are used as an example. First ten buildings of five types are selected as the research objectives. Subsequently two comparative system models of a regional distributed hydrogen energy system (RDHES) and an RDES were established. Then by studying the optimal RDHES and RDES configuration and combining the prediction of future downward trends of fuel cell (FC) costs and energy carbon emissions the application effect of FC and hydrogen storage (HS) technologies on the demand side was analyzed. Finally the adaptability of the demand-side hydrogen energy system was studied by analyzing the load characteristics of different types of buildings. The results show that when the FC price is reduced to 1.5 times that of the internal combustion engine (ICE) the existing carbon tax system can sufficiently support the RDHES in gaining economic advantages in some regions. Notably when the carbon emissions of the urban energy system are reduced the RDHES demonstrates stronger anti-risk ability and has greater suitability for promotion in museums and shopping malls. The conclusions obtained in this study provide quantitative support for hydrogen energy promotion policies on the regional demand side and serve as a theoretical reference for the design and adaptability research of RDHESs.
Green Hydrogen in Europe: Do Strategies Meet Expectations?
Dec 2021
Publication
The possibility of producing hydrogen as an energy carrier or raw material through electrolysis of water so-called green hydrogen has been on the table as a technological option for a long time. However low conversion efficiency and a dubious climate balance have stood in the way of large-scale application ever since. Within the last three to four years however this view has changed significantly. In addition to technological improvements the increasing speed of the expansion of volatile renewable energies in Europe has also contributed to this since in principle a nearly climate-neutral utilisation of excess generation is possible through the use of hydrogen as an energy carrier in electrolysis. In addition hydrogen or products derived from it can be used in a variety of ways as a final energy carrier in all energy-intensive activities: industry heating and transport. For this reason green hydrogen production could play a key role in interconnecting all energy consuming sectors (sector coupling) a long-term goal necessary for achieving the decarbonisation of the European economy.
The Hydrogen Bike: Communicating the Production and Safety of Green Hydrogen
Mar 2021
Publication
As the international community aims to reduce its reliance on fossil fuels green hydrogen has great potential to replace methane as a clean source of fuel. A novel public engagement activity The Hydrogen Bike has been developed to demonstrate the production and use of green hydrogen from water. The aim of the activity is to educate entertain and inform young people and adults so that they have an opportunity to form an opinion about the use of hydrogen as a fuel. Using a novel two-part data collection system participants are briefly surveyed for their opinion on hydrogen before and after participating in The Hydrogen Bike activity. Through this we have found that most participants (73%) are considered to have no opinion or a neutral opinion on hydrogen before participating in The Hydrogen Bike activity. After participation 88% of those who were originally neutral or had no opinion on hydrogen self-reported a positive feeling about hydrogen. The method of data collection was quick intuitive and suitable for an audience attracted from passing footfall.
Opportunities for Production and Utilization of Green Hydrogen in the Philippines
Jun 2021
Publication
The Philippines is exploring different alternative sources of energy to become energy-independent while significantly reducing the country’s greenhouse gas emissions. Green hydrogen from renewable energy is one of the most sustainable alternatives with its application as an energy carrier and as a source of clean and sustainable energy as well as raw material for various industrial processes. As a preliminary study in the country this paper aims to explore different production and utilization routes for a green hydrogen economy in the Philippines. Production from electrolysis includes various available renewable sources consisting of geothermal hydropower wind solar and biomass as well as ocean technology and nuclear energy when they become available in the future. Different utilization routes include the application of green hydrogen in the transportation power generation industry and utility sectors. The results of this study can be incorporated in the development of the pathways for hydrogen economy in the Philippines and can be applied in other emerging economies.
Towards the Integration of Flexible Green Hydrogen Demand and Production in Ireland: Opportunities, Barriers, and Recommendations
Dec 2022
Publication
Ireland’s Climate Action Plan 2021 has set out ambitious targets for decarbonization across the energy transport heating and agriculture sectors. The Climate Action Plan followed the Climate Act 2021 which committed Ireland to a legally binding target of net-zero greenhouse gas emissions no later than 2050 and a reduction of 51% by 2030. Green hydrogen is recognized as one of the most promising technologies for enabling the decarbonization targets of economies across the globe but significant challenges remain to its large-scale adoption. This research systematically investigates the barriers and opportunities to establishing a green hydrogen economy by 2050 in Ireland by means of an analysis of the policies supporting the optimal development of an overall green hydrogen eco-system in the context of other decarbonizing technologies including green hydrogen production using renewable generation distribution and delivery and final consumption. The outcome of this analysis is a set of clear recommendations for the policymaker that will appropriately support the development of a green hydrogen market and eco-system in parallel with the development of other more mature low-carbon technologies. The analysis has been supplemented by an open “call for evidence” which gathered relevant information about the future policy and roles of hydrogen involving the most prominent stakeholders of hydrogen in Ireland. Furthermore the recommendations and conclusions from the research have been validated by this mechanism.
A Roadmap with Strategic Policy toward Green Hydrogen Production: The Case of Iraq
Mar 2023
Publication
The study proposes a comprehensive framework to support the development of green hydrogen production including the establishment of legal and regulatory frameworks investment incentives and public-private partnerships. Using official and public data from government agencies the potential of renewable energy sources is studied and some reasonable assumptions are made so that a full study and evaluation of hydrogen production in the country can be done. The information here proves beyond a doubt that renewable energy makes a big difference in making green hydrogen. This makes the country a leader in the field of making green hydrogen. Based on what it found this research suggests a way for the country to have a green hydrogen economy by 2050. It is done in three steps: using green hydrogen as a fuel for industry using green hydrogen in fuel cells and selling hydrogen. On the other hand the research found that making green hydrogen that can be used in Iraq and other developing countries is hard. There are technological economic and social problems as well as policy consequences that need to be solved.
OIES Podcast - China and Hydrogen: A Tale of Three Cities
Apr 2023
Publication
China is by far the world’s largest producer and consumer of hydrogen mostly from coal and other fossil fuels and the country has an ambitious hydrogen strategy. In this podcast we dive into the provincial strategies on hydrogen in China and specifically discuss a recent paper published by the Institute entitled China’s hydrogen development: A tale of three cities. The paper looks at the experiences and plans of the pilot hydrogen clusters located in Datong Shanxi province Chengdu in Sichuan province and Zhangjiakou in the northern part of Hebei province which surrounds Beijing. In this podcast we are speaking with the paper’s author Arabella Miller-Wang recently an Aramco fellow at the Institute and also a Research Assistant at the Smith School of Enterprise and the Environment of The University of Oxford as well as with Michal Meidan director of the China Energy Programme at OIES and with Martin Lambert who heads hydrogen research at the OIES.
The podcast can be found on their website.
The podcast can be found on their website.
International Experience of Carbon Neutrality and Prospects of Key Technologies: Lessons for China
Feb 2023
Publication
Carbon neutrality (or climate neutrality) has been a global consensus and international experience exchange is essential. Given the differences in the degree of social development resource endowment and technological level each country should build a carbon-neutral plan based on its national conditions. Compared with other major developed countries (e.g. Germany the United States and Japan) China's carbon neutrality has much bigger challenges including a heavy and time-pressured carbon reduction task and the current energy structure that is over-dependent on fossil fuels. Here we provide a comprehensive review of the status and prospects of the key technologies for low-carbon near-zero carbon and negative carbon emissions. Technological innovations associated with coal oil-gas and hydrogen industries and their future potential in reducing carbon emissions are particularly explained and assessed. Based on integrated analysis of international experience from the world's major developed countries in-depth knowledge of the current and future technologies and China's energy and ecological resources potential five lessons for the implementation of China's carbon neutrality are proposed: (1) transformation of energy production pattern from a coal-dominated pattern to a diversified renewable energy pattern; (2) renewable power-to-X and large-scale underground energy storage; (3) integration of green hydrogen production storage transport and utilization; (4) construction of clean energy systems based on smart sector coupling (ENSYSCO); (5) improvement of ecosystem carbon sinks both in nationwide forest land and potential desert in Northwest China. This paper provides an international perspective for a better understanding of the challenges and opportunities of carbon neutrality in China and can serve as a theoretical foundation for medium-long term carbon neutral policy formulation.
Greenhouse Gas Emission Dynamics of Saudi Arabia: Potential of Hydrogen Fuel for Emission Footprint Reduction
Mar 2023
Publication
The growth of population gross domestic product (GDP) and urbanization have led to an increase in greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia (KSA). The leading GHG-emitting sectors are electricity generation road transportation cement chemicals refinery iron and steel. However the KSA is working to lead the global energy sustainability campaign to reach net zero GHG emissions by 2060. In addition the country is working to establish a framework for the circular carbon economy (CCE) in which hydrogen acts as a transversal facilitator. To cut down on greenhouse gas emissions the Kingdom is also building several facilities such as the NEOM green hydrogen project. The main objective of the article is to critically review the current GHG emission dynamics of the KSA including major GHG emission driving forces and prominent emission sectors. Then the role of hydrogen in GHG emission reduction will be explored. Finally the researchers and decision makers will find the helpful discussions and recommendations in deciding on appropriate mitigation measures and technologies.
Green Hydrogen Production and Its Land Tenure Consequences in Africa: An Interpretive Review
Sep 2023
Publication
Globally a green hydrogen economy rush is underway and many companies investors governments and environmentalists consider it as an energy source that could foster the global energy transition. The enormous potential for hydrogen production for domestic use and export places Africa in the spotlight in the green hydrogen economy discourse. This discourse remains unsettled regarding how natural resources such as land and water can be sustainably utilized for such a resource-intensive project and what implications this would have. This review argues that green hydrogen production (GHP) in Africa has consequences where land resources (and their associated natural resources) are concerned. It discusses the current trends in GHP in Africa and the possibilities for reducing any potential pressures it may put on land and other resource use on the continent. The approach of the review is interpretive and hinges on answering three questions concerning the what why and how of GHP and its land consequences in Africa. The review is based on 41 studies identified from Google Scholar and sources identified via snowballed recommendations from experts. The GHP implications identified relate to land and water use mining-related land stress and environmental ecological and land-related socioeconomic consequences. The paper concludes that GHP may not foster the global energy transition as is being opined by many renewable energy enthusiasts but rather could help foster this transition as part of a greener energy mix. It notes that African countries that have the potential for GHP require the institutionalization of or a change in their existing approaches to land-related energy governance systems in order to achieve success.
Green Hydrogen Potential in Tropical Countries: The Colombian Case
Mar 2023
Publication
Tropical countries can approach their natural resources to produce low-carbon H2 from solar wind hydro and biomass resources to satisfy their domestic demand and to export it. To do so Colombia published the National Hydrogen Roadmap in which green H2 was prioritized. This study estimates Colombia's potential to produce green H2 and a timeline of scenarios displaying the required installed capacity capital investment and environmental analysis related to water utilization and CO2 capture. Accordingly Colombia can produce H2 at a rate of 9 Mt/a by 2050 by installing 121 GW renewables while processing 303 Mt/a of residual biomass. In this scenario Colombia's share of the H2 international market can reach 1.2% with a cumulative investment of over 244 billion USD by 2050. This study provides insights into potential global resources for low-carbon H2 generation.
Renewable Heating and Cooling Pathways - Towards Full Decarbonisation by 2050
Feb 2023
Publication
With the adoption of the EU Climate Law in 2021 the EU has set itself a binding target to achieve climate neutrality by 2050 and to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 55 percent compared to 1990 levels by 2030. To support the increased ambition the EU Commission adopted proposals for revising the key directives and regulations addressing energy efficiency renewable energies and greenhouse gas emissions in the Fit for 55 package. The heating and cooling (H&C) sector plays a key role for reaching the EU energy and climate targets. H&C accounts for about 50 percent of the final energy consumption in the EU and the sector is largely based on fossil fuels. In 2021 the share of renewable energies in H&C reached 23%.
Global Hydrogen Flows
Oct 2022
Publication
Authored by the Hydrogen Council in collaboration with McKinsey and Company Global Hydrogen Flows addresses the midstream challenge of aligning and optimizing global supply and demand. It finds that trade can reduce overall system costs.
In doing so it provides a perspective on how the global trade of hydrogen and derivatives including hydrogen carriers ammonia methanol synthetic kerosene and green steel (which uses hydrogen in its production) can develop as well as the investments needed to unlock the full potential of global hydrogen and derivatives trade.
Our hope is that this report offers stakeholders – suppliers buyers original equipment manufacturers (OEMs) investors and governments – a thorough and quantitative perspective that will help them make the decisions required to accelerate the uptake of hydrogen.
Key messages from the report:
Hydrogen and its derivatives will become heavily traded: 400 out of the 660 million tons (MT) of hydrogen needed for carbon neutrality by 2050 will be transported over long distances with 190 MT crossing international borders.
In a cost-optimal world around 50% of trade uses pipelines while synthetic fuels ammonia and sponge iron transported on ships account for approximately 45%. Europe and countries in the Far East will rely on imports while North America and China are mostly self-reliant.
Trade has huge benefits: It can lower the cost of hydrogen supply by 25% or as much as US$6 trillion of investments from now until 2050. This will accelerate the hydrogen transition which can abate 80 gigatons of CO2 until 2050.
The paper can be found on their website.
In doing so it provides a perspective on how the global trade of hydrogen and derivatives including hydrogen carriers ammonia methanol synthetic kerosene and green steel (which uses hydrogen in its production) can develop as well as the investments needed to unlock the full potential of global hydrogen and derivatives trade.
Our hope is that this report offers stakeholders – suppliers buyers original equipment manufacturers (OEMs) investors and governments – a thorough and quantitative perspective that will help them make the decisions required to accelerate the uptake of hydrogen.
Key messages from the report:
Hydrogen and its derivatives will become heavily traded: 400 out of the 660 million tons (MT) of hydrogen needed for carbon neutrality by 2050 will be transported over long distances with 190 MT crossing international borders.
In a cost-optimal world around 50% of trade uses pipelines while synthetic fuels ammonia and sponge iron transported on ships account for approximately 45%. Europe and countries in the Far East will rely on imports while North America and China are mostly self-reliant.
Trade has huge benefits: It can lower the cost of hydrogen supply by 25% or as much as US$6 trillion of investments from now until 2050. This will accelerate the hydrogen transition which can abate 80 gigatons of CO2 until 2050.
The paper can be found on their website.
Actual Quality Changes in Natural Resource and Gas Grid Use in Prospective Hydrogen Technology Roll-Out in the World and Russia
Oct 2023
Publication
About 95% of current hydrogen production uses technologies involving primary fossil resources. A minor part is synthesized by low-carbon and close-to-zero-carbon-footprint methods using RESs. The significant expansion of low-carbon hydrogen energy is considered to be a part of the “green transition” policies taking over in technologically leading countries. Projects of hydrogen synthesis from natural gas with carbon capture for subsequent export to European and Asian regions poor in natural resources are considered promising by fossil-rich countries. Quality changes in natural resource use and gas grids will include (1) previously developed scientific groundwork and production facilities for hydrogen energy to stimulate the use of existing natural gas grids for hydrogen energy transport projects; (2) existing infrastructure for gas filling stations in China and Russia to allow the expansion of hydrogen-fuel-cell vehicles (HFCVs) using typical “mini-plant” projects of hydrogen synthesis using methane conversion technology; (3) feasibility testing for different hydrogen synthesis plants at medium and large scales using fossil resources (primarily natural gas) water and atomic energy. The results of this study will help focus on the primary tasks for quality changes in natural resource and gas grid use. Investments made and planned in hydrogen energy are assessed.
Comparative Life Cycle Greenhouse Gas Analysis of Clean Hydrogen Pathways: Assessing Domestic Production and Overseas Import in South Korea
Sep 2023
Publication
The development of a Clean Hydrogen Standard based on life-cycle greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions is gaining prominence on the international agenda. Thus a framework for assessing life-cycle GHG emissions for clean hydrogen pathways is necessary. In this study the comprehensive datasets and effects of various scenarios encompassing hydrogen production carriers (liquid hydrogen ammonia methylcyclohexane) carbon capture and storage (CCS) target analysis year (2021 2030) to reflect trends of greening grid electricity and potential import countries on aggregated life-cycle GHG emissions were presented. South Korea was chosen as a case study region and the low-carbon alternatives were suggested for reducing aggregated emissions to meet the Korean standard (5 kgCO2e/kgH2). First capturing and storing nearly entire (>90%) CO2 from fossil- and waste-based production pathways is deemed essential. Second when repurposing the use of hydrogen that was otherwise used internally applying a penalty for substitution is appropriate leading to results notably exceeding the standard. Third for electrolysis-based hydrogen using renewable or nuclear electricity is essential. Lastly when hydrogen is imported in a well-to-point-of-delivery (WtP) perspective using renewable electricity during hydrogen conversion into a carrier and reusing the produced hydrogen for endothermic reconversion reaction are recommended. By implementing the developed calculation framework to other countries' cases it was observed that importing hydrogen to regions having scope of WtP or above (e.g. well-to-wheel) might not meet the threshold due to additional emissions from importation processes. Additionally for hydrogen carriers undergoing the endothermic reconversion the approach to reduce WtP emissions (reusing produced hydrogen) may conflict with the approach to reduce well-to-gate (WtG) emission (using external fossilbased fuel). The discrepancy highlights the need to set a broader scope of emissions assessment to effectively promote the life-cycle emission reduction efforts of hydrogen importers. This study contributes to the field of clean hydrogen GHG emission assessment offering a robust database and calculation framework while addressing the effects of greening grid electricity and CCS implementation proposing low-carbon alternatives and GHG assessment scope to achieve global GHG reduction.
Route-to-Market Strategy for Low-carbon Hydrogen from Natural Gas in the Permian Basin
Aug 2023
Publication
This paper investigates the untapped potential of the Permian Basin a multifaceted energy axis in Texas and adjoining states in the emerging era of decarbonization. Aligned with current policy directives on regional hydrogen hubs this study explores the viability of developing a hydrogen energy hub in the Permian Basin thereby producing low-carbon intensity hydrogen from natural gas in the Basin and transporting it to the Greater Houston area. Diverging from existing literature this study provides an integrated techno-economic evaluation of the entire hydrogen value chain in the Permian Basin encompassing production storage and transportation. Furthermore it comparatively analyzes the scenario of interest against an optimized base scenario thereby underlining comparative advantages and disadvantages. The paper concludes that the delivered cost of Permian based low-carbon intensity hydrogen to the Greater Houston area is $1.85/kg benchmarked to the scenario with hydrogen produced close to the Greater Houston area and delivered at $1.42/kg. Our findings reveal that Permian-based low-carbon intensity hydrogen production can achieve cost savings in feedstock ($0.25/kg) and potentially accrue a higher production tax credit due to a shorter gas supply chain to production ($0.33/kg). Nevertheless a significant cost barrier is the expense of long-haul pipeline transport ($0.90/kg) from the Permian Basin to Houston as opposed to local production. Despite the obstacles the study identifies a potential breakeven solution where increasing the production scale to at least 412000 metric ton per year (about 3 steam reforming plants) in the Permian Basin can effectively lower costs in the transport sector. Hence a scaled-up production can mitigate the cost difference and establish the Permian Basin as a competitive player in the hydrogen market. In conclusion a SWOT analysis presents Strengths Weaknesses Opportunities and Threats associated with Permian-based hydrogen production.
‘Greening’ an Oil Exporting Country: A Hydrogen, Wind and Gas Turbine Case Study
Feb 2024
Publication
In the quest for achieving decarbonisation it is essential for different sectors of the economy to collaborate and invest significantly. This study presents an innovative approach that merges technological insights with philosophical considerations at a national scale with the intention of shaping the national policy and practice. The aim of this research is to assist in formulating decarbonisation strategies for intricate economies. Libya a major oil exporter that can diversify its energy revenue sources is used as the case study. However the principles can be applied to develop decarbonisation strategies across the globe. The decarbonisation framework evaluated in this study encompasses wind-based renewable electricity hydrogen and gas turbine combined cycles. A comprehensive set of both official and unofficial national data was assembled integrated and analysed to conduct this study. The developed analytical model considers a variety of factors including consumption in different sectors geographical data weather patterns wind potential and consumption trends amongst others. When gaps and inconsistencies were encountered reasonable assumptions and projections were used to bridge them. This model is seen as a valuable foundation for developing replacement scenarios that can realistically guide production and user engagement towards decarbonisation. The aim of this model is to maintain the advantages of the current energy consumption level assuming a 2% growth rate and to assess changes in energy consumption in a fully green economy. While some level of speculation is present in the results important qualitative and quantitative insights emerge with the key takeaway being the use of hydrogen and the anticipated considerable increase in electricity demand. Two scenarios were evaluated: achieving energy self-sufficiency and replacing current oil exports with hydrogen exports on an energy content basis. This study offers for the first time a quantitative perspective on the wind-based infrastructure needs resulting from the evaluation of the two scenarios. In the first scenario energy requirements were based on replacing fossil fuels with renewable sources. In contrast the second scenario included maintaining energy exports at levels like the past substituting oil with hydrogen. The findings clearly demonstrate that this transition will demand great changes and substantial investments. The primary requirements identified are 20529 or 34199 km2 of land for wind turbine installations (for self-sufficiency and exports) and 44 single-shaft 600 MW combined-cycle hydrogen-fired gas turbines. This foundational analysis represents the commencement of the research investment and political agenda regarding the journey to achieving decarbonisation for a country.
A Hydrogen Vision for the UK
Apr 2023
Publication
This report shows how the infrastructure that exists today can evolve from one based on the supply of fossil fuels to one providing the backbone of a clean hydrogen system. The ambitious government hydrogen targets across the UK will only be met with clarity focus and partnership. The gas networks are ready to play their part in the UK’s energy future. They have a plan know what is needed to deliver it and are taking the necessary steps to do just that.
Distributional Trends in the Generation and End-Use Sector of Low-Carbon Hydrogen Plants
Mar 2023
Publication
This paper uses established and recently introduced methods from the applied mathematics and statistics literature to study trends in the end-use sector and the capacity of low-carbon hydrogen projects in recent and upcoming decades. First we examine distributions in plants over time for various end-use sectors and classify them according to metric discrepancy observing clear similarity across all industry sectors. Next we compare the distribution of usage sectors between different continents and examine the changes in sector distribution over time. Finally we judiciously apply several regression models to analyse the association between various predictors and the capacity of global hydrogen projects. Across our experiments we see a welcome exponential growth in the capacity of zero-carbon hydrogen plants and significant growth of new and planned hydrogen plants in the 2020’s across every sector.
Towards Green Hydrogen? - A Comparison of German and African Visions and Expectations in the Context of the H2Atlas-Africa Project
Sep 2023
Publication
Green hydrogen promises to be critical in achieving a sustainable and renewable energy transition. As green hydrogen is produced with renewables green hydrogen could become an energy storage medium of the future and even substitute the current unsustainable grey or blue hydrogen used in the industry. Bringing this transition into reality for instance in Germany there are visions to rapidly build hydrogen facilities in Africa and export the produced green hydrogen to Europe. One problem however is that these visions presumably conflict with the visions of actors within Africa. Therefore this study aims to provide an initial assessment of African stakeholders’ visions for future energy exports and renewable energy expectations. By comparing visions from Germany and Africa this assessment was conducted to identify differences in green energy and hydrogen visions that could lead to conflict and similarities that could be the basis for cooperation. The National Hydrogen Strategy outlines the German visions which clarifies that Germany will have to import green hydrogen to meet its green transition target. In this context of future energy export demand a partnership between German and African researchers on assessing green hydrogen potentials in Africa started. The African visions were explored by surveying the partners from different African countries working on the project. The results revealed that while both sides see the need for an immediate transition to renewable energy the African side is not envisioning the immediate export of green hydrogen. Based on the responses the partners are primarily concerned with improving the continent’s still deficient energy access for both the population and industry. Nevertheless this African perspective greatly emphasises cross-border cooperation where both sides can realise their visions. In the case of Germany that German investment could build infrastructure which would benefit the receiving African country or countries and open up the possibility for the envisioned green hydrogen export to Europe.
Correlations between Component Size Green Hydrogen Demand and Breakeven Price for Energy Islands
Jun 2023
Publication
The topic of energy islands is currently a focal point in the push for the energy transition. An ambitious project in the North Sea aims to build an offshore wind-powered electrolyser for green hydrogen production. Power-to-X (PtX) is a process of converting renewable electricity into hydrogen-based energy carriers such as natural gas liquid fuels and chemicals. PtH2 represents a subset of PtX wherein hydrogen is the resultant green energy from the conversion process. Many uncertainties surround PtH2 plants affecting the economic success of the investment and making the price of hydrogen and the levelized cost of hydrogen (LCOH) of this technology uncompetitive. Several studies have analysed PtH2 layouts to identify the hydrogen price without considering how component capacities and external inputs affect the breakeven price. Unlike previous works this paper investigates component capacity dependencies under variables such as wind and hydrogen demand shape for dedicated/non-dedicated system layouts. To this end the techno-economic analysis finds the breakeven price optimising the components to reach the lowest selling price. Results show that the hydrogen price can reach 2.2 €/kg for a non-dedicated system for certain combinations of maximum demand and electrolyser capacity. Furthermore the LCOH analysis revealed that the offshore wind electrolyser system is currently uncompetitive with hydrogen production from carbon-based technologies but is competitive with renewable technologies. The sensitivity analysis reveals the green electricity price in the non-dedicated case for which a dedicated system has a lower optimum hydrogen price. The price limit for the dedicated case is 116 €/MWh.
Hydrogen from Offshore Wind: Investor Perspective on the Profitability of a Hybrid System Including for Curtailment
Mar 2020
Publication
Accommodating renewables on the electricity grid may hinder development opportunities for offshore wind farms (OWFs) as they begin to experience significant curtailment or constraint. However there is potential to combine investment in OWFs with Power-to-Gas (PtG) converting electricity to hydrogen via electrolysis for an alternative/complementary revenue. Using historic wind speed and simulated system marginal costs data this work models the electricity generated and potential revenues of a 504 MW OWF. Three configurations are analysed; (1) all electricity is sold to the grid (2) all electricity is converted to hydrogen and sold and (3) a hybrid system where power is converted to hydrogen when curtailment occurs and/or when the system marginal cost is low with the effect of curtailment analysed in each scenario. These represent the status quo a potential future configuration and an innovative business model respectively. The willingness of an investor to build PtG are determined by changes to the net present value (NPV) of a project. Results suggest that configuration (1) is most profitable and that curtailment mitigation alone is not sufficient to secure investment in PtG. By acting as an artificial floor in the electricity price a hybrid configuration (3) is promising and increases NPV for all hydrogen values greater than €4.2/kgH2. Hybrid system attractiveness increases with curtailment only if the hydrogen value is significantly above the levelised cost of €3.77/kgH2. In order for an investor to choose to pursue configuration (2) the offshore wind farm would have to anticipate 8.5% curtailment and be able to receive €4.5/kgH2 or 25% curtailment and receive €4/kgH2. The capital costs and discount rates are the most sensitive parameters and ambitious combinations of technology improvements could produce a levelised cost of €3/kgH2.
Breaking the Hard-to-abate Bottleneck in China’s Path to Carbon Neutrality with Clean Hydrogen
Sep 2022
Publication
Countries such as China are facing a bottleneck in their paths to carbon neutrality: abating emissions in heavy industries and heavy-duty transport. There are few in-depth studies of the prospective role for clean hydrogen in these ‘hard-to-abate’ (HTA) sectors. Here we carry out an integrated dynamic least-cost modelling analysis. Results show that first clean hydrogen can be both a major energy carrier and feedstock that can significantly reduce carbon emissions of heavy industry. It can also fuel up to 50% of China’s heavy-duty truck and bus fleets by 2060 and significant shares of shipping. Second a realistic clean hydrogen scenario that reaches 65.7 Mt of production in 2060 could avoid US$1.72 trillion of new investment compared with a no-hydrogen scenario. This study provides evidence of the value of clean hydrogen in HTA sectors for China and countries facing similar challenges in reducing emissions to achieve net-zero goals.
Green Ammonia as a Spatial Energy Vector: A Review
May 2021
Publication
Green hydrogen is considered a highly promising vector for deep decarbonisation of energy systems and is forecast to represent 20% of global energy use by 2050. In order to secure access to this resource Japan Germany and South Korea have announced plans to import hydrogen; other major energy consumers are sure to follow. Ammonia a promising hydrogen derivative may enable this energy transport by densifying hydrogen at relatively low cost using well-understood technologies. This review seeks to describe a global green ammonia import/export market: it identifies benefits and limitations of ammonia relative to other hydrogen carriers the costs of ammonia production and transport and the constraints on both supply and demand. We find that green ammonia as an energy vector is likely to be critical to future energy systems but that gaps remain in the literature. In particular rigorous analysis of production and transport costs are rarely paired preventing realistic assessments of the delivered cost of energy or the selection of optimum import/export partners to minimise the delivered cost of ammonia. Filling these gaps in the literature is a prerequisite to the development of robust hydrogen and ammonia strategies and to enable the formation of global import and export markets of green fuel
OIES Podcast - The EU Hydrogen and Gas Decarbonisation Package
Mar 2023
Publication
David Ledesma discusses with Alex Barnes the European Commission’s decision to make hydrogen a key part of its decarbonisation strategy. The 2022 REPowerEU Strategy set a target of 20MT consumption of renewable hydrogen by 2030. The Commission is keen to promote a single European market in hydrogen similar to the current one for natural gas. To this end it has published proposals on the regulation of future European hydrogen infrastructure (pipelines storage facilities and import terminals). The EU Council (representing Member States) and the EU Parliament are finalising their amendments to the Commission proposals prior to ‘trilogue’ negotiations and final agreement later this year. The OIES’s paper ‘The EU Hydrogen and Gas Decarbonisation Package: help or hindrance for the development of a European hydrogen market?’ published in March 2023 examines the EU Commission proposals and their suitability for a developing hydrogen market.
The podcast can be found on their website.
The podcast can be found on their website.
Day-ahead Economic Optimization Scheduling Model for Electricity–hydrogen Collaboration Market
Aug 2022
Publication
This paper presents a day-ahead economic optimization scheduling model for Regional Electricity–Hydrogen Integrated Energy System (REHIES) with high penetration of renewable energies. The electricity–hydrogen coupling devices are modelled with energy storage units and Insensitive Electrical Load (ISEL). The proposed objective function is able to capture the maximum benefits for REHIES in terms of economic benefits and can be summarized as a Quadratic Programming (QP) problem. The simulation verification is performed by MATLAB/CPLEX solver. The simulation results show that the proposed optimization model adapts the market requirement by contributing flexible collaboration between electricity and hydrogen. Also the translational properties of ISEL can implement higher economic profits and more effective utilization of renewable energy.
Research & Innovation to Support Net-zero Industrial Technologies
Mar 2023
Publication
The Green Deal Industrial Plan aims to boost the competitiveness of Europe’s net-zero industry and to accelerate the transition to climate neutrality. The Plan is based on four pillars: (1) a predictable and simplified regulatory environment; (2) faster access to funding; (3) developing skills for net-zero industry; and (4) open trade for resilient supply chains.
China's Hydrogen Development: A Tale of Three Cities
Mar 2023
Publication
China is the world’s largest producer and consumer of hydrogen. The country has adopted a domestic strategy that targets significant growth in hydrogen consumption and production. Given the importance of hydrogen in the low-carbon energy transition it is critical to understand China’s hydrogen policies and their implementation as well as the extent to which these contribute to the country’s low-carbon goals.<br/>Existing research has focused on understanding policies and regulations in China and their implications for the country’s hydrogen prospects. This study aims to improve our understanding of central-government initiatives and look at how China’s hydrogen policies are implemented at the local level. The paper examines the three cities of Zhangjiakou (in China’s renewable-rich Hebei province) Datong (in the country’s coal-heartland of Shanxi province) and Chengdu which is rich in hydropower and natural gas. To be sure the three cities analysed in this paper do not cover all regional plans and initiatives but they offer a useful window into local hydrogen policy implementation. They also illustrate the major challenges facing green hydrogen as it moves beyond the narrow highly subsidized field of fuel cell vehicles (FCVs). Indeed costs as well as water land availability and technology continue to be constraints.<br/>The hydrogen policies and road maps reviewed in this paper offer numerous targets—often setting quantitative goals for FCVs hydrogen refuelling stations hydrogen supply chain revenue and new hydrogen technology companies—aligning with the view that hydrogen development is currently more of an industrial policy than a decarbonisation strategy. Indeed hydrogen’s potential to decarbonise sectors such as manufacturing and chemicals is of secondary importance if mentioned at all. But as the cities analysed here view hydrogen as part of their industrial programmes economic development and climate strategies support is likely to remain significant even as the specific incentive schemes will likely evolve.<br/>Given this local hydrogen development model rising demand for hydrogen in China could ultimately increase rather than decrease CO₂ emissions from fossil fuels in the short run. At the same time even though the central government’s hydrogen targets (as laid out in its 2022 policy documents) seem relatively conservative Chinese cities’ appetite for new sources of growth and the ability to fund various business models are worth watching.
Can Green Hydrogen Production Be Economically Viable under Current Market Conditions
Dec 2020
Publication
This paper discusses the potential of green hydrogen production in a case study of a Slovenian hydro power plant. To assess the feasibility and eligibility of hydrogen production at the power plant we present an overview of current hydrogen prices and the costs of the power-to-gas system for green hydrogen production. After defining the production cost for hydrogen at the case study hydro power plant we elaborate on the profitability of hydrogen production over electricity. As hydrogen can be used as a sustainable energy vector in industry heating mobility and the electro energetic sectors we discuss the current competitiveness of hydrogen in the heating and transport sectors. Considering the current prices of different fuels it is shown that hydrogen can be competitive in the transport sector if it is unencumbered by various environmental taxes. The second part of the paper deals with hydrogen production in the context of secondary control ancillary service provided by a case study power plant. Namely hydrogen can be produced during the time period when there is no demand for extra electric power within a secondary control ancillary service and thus the economics of power plant operation can be improved.
Economically Viable Large-scale Hydrogen Liquefaction
Mar 2016
Publication
The liquid hydrogen demand particularly driven by clean energy applications will rise in the near future. As industrial large scale liquefiers will play a major role within the hydrogen supply chain production capacity will have to increase by a multiple of today’s typical sizes. The main goal is to reduce the total cost of ownership for these plants by increasing energy efficiency with innovative and simple process designs optimized in capital expenditure. New concepts must ensure a manageable plant complexity and flexible operability. In the phase of process development and selection a dimensioning of key equipment for large scale liquefiers such as turbines and compressors as well as heat exchangers must be performed iteratively to ensure technological feasibility and maturity. Further critical aspects related to hydrogen liquefaction e.g. fluid properties ortho-para hydrogen conversion and coldbox configuration must be analysed in detail. This paper provides an overview on the approach challenges and preliminary results in the development of efficient as well as economically viable concepts for large-scale hydrogen liquefaction.
Future Swiss Energy Economy: The Challenge of Storing Renewable Energy
Feb 2022
Publication
Fossil fuels and materials on Earth are a finite resource and the disposal of waste into the air on land and into water has an impact on our environment on a global level. Using Switzerland as an example the energy demand and the technical challenges and the economic feasibility of a transition to an energy economy based entirely on renewable energy were analyzed. Three approaches for the complete substitution of fossil fuels with renewable energy from photovoltaics called energy systems (ES) were considered i.e. a purely electric system with battery storage (ELC) hydrogen (HYS) and synthetic hydrocarbons (HCR). ELC is the most energy efficient solution; however it requires seasonal electricity storage to meet year-round energy needs. Meeting this need through batteries has a significant capital cost and is not feasible at current rates of battery production and expanding pumped hydropower to the extent necessary will have a big impact on the environment. The HYS allows underground hydrogen storage to balance seasonal demand but requires building of a hydrogen infrastructure and applications working with hydrogen. Finally the HCR requires the largest photovoltaic (PV) field but the infrastructure and the applications already exist. The model for Switzerland can be applied to other countries adapting the solar irradiation the energy demand and the storage options.
Which Is Preferred between Electric or Hydrogen Cars for Carbon Neutrality in the Commercial Vehicle Transportation Sector of South Korea? Implications from a Public Opinion Survey
Feb 2024
Publication
South Korea has drawn up plans to reduce greenhouse gases by 29.7 million tons by supplying 4.5 million electric and hydrogen cars by 2030 to implement the “2050 carbon neutrality” goal. This article gathers data on public preferences for electric cars (ECs) over hydrogen cars (HCs) in the commercial vehicle transportation sector through a survey of 1000 people. Moreover the strength of the preference was evaluated on a five-point scale. Of all respondents 60.0 percent preferred ECs and 21.0 percent HCs the former being 2.86 times greater than the latter. On the other hand the strength of the preference for HCs was 1.42 times greater than that for ECs. Factors influencing the preference for ECs over HCs were also explored through adopting the ordered probit model which is useful in examining ordinal preference rather than cardinal preference. The analyzed factors which are related to respondents’ characteristics experiences and perceptions can be usefully employed for developing strategies of promoting carbon neutrality in the commercial vehicle transportation sector and preparing policies to improve public acceptance thereof.
Assessment of a Fully Renewable System for the Total Decarbonization of the Economy with Full Demand Coverage on Islands Connected to a Central Grid: The Balearic Case in 2040
Jul 2023
Publication
The transition to clean electricity generation is a crucial focus for achieving the current objectives of economy decarbonization. The Balearic Archipelago faces significant environmental economic and social challenges in shifting from a predominantly fossil fuel-based economy to one based on renewable sources. This study proposes implementing a renewable energy mix and decarbonizing the economy of the Balearic Islands by 2040. The proposed system involves an entirely renewable generation system with interconnections between the four Balearic islands and the Spanish mainland grid via a 650 MW submarine cable. This flexible electrical exchange can cover approximately 35% of the peak demand of 1900 MW. The scenario comprises a 6 GWp solar photovoltaic system a wind system of under 1.2 GWp and a 600 MW biomass system as generation sub-systems. A vanadium redox flow battery sub-system with a storage capacity of approximately 21 GWh and 2.5 GWp power is available to ensure system manageability. This system’s levelized electricity cost (LCOE) is around 13.75 cEUR/kWh. The design also incorporates hydrogen as an alternative for difficult-to-electrify uses achieving effective decarbonization of all final energy uses. A production of slightly over 5 × 104 tH2 per year is required with 1.7 GW of electrolyzer power using excess electricity and water resources. The system enables a significant level of economy decarbonization although it requires substantial investments in both generation sources and storage.
Merging the Green-H2 Production with Carbon Recycling for Stepping Towards the Carbon Cyclic Economy
Jan 2024
Publication
Hydrogen Economy and Cyclic Economy are advocated together with the use of perennial (solar wind hydro geo-power SWHG) and renewable (biomass) energy sources for defossilizing anthropic activities and mitigating climate change. Each option has intrinsic limits that prevent a stand-alone success in reaching the target. Humans have recycled goods (metals water paper and now plastics) to a different extent since very long time. Recycling carbon (which is already performed at the industrial level in the form of CO2 utilization and with recycling paper and plastics) is a key point for the future. The conversion of CO2 into chemicals and materials is carried out since the late 1800s (Solvay process) and is today performed at scale of 230 Mt/y. It is time to implement on a scale of several Gt/y the conversion of CO2 into energy products possibly mimicking Nature which does not use hydrogen. In the short term a few conditions must be met to make operative on a large scale the production of fuels from recycled-C namely the availability of low-cost: i. abundant pure concentrated streams of CO2 ii. non-fossil primary energy sources and iii. non-fossil-hydrogen. The large-scale production of hydrogen by Methane Steam Reforming with CO2 capture (Blue-H2) seems to be a realistic and sustainable solution. Green-H2 could in principle be produced on a large scale through the electrolysis of water powered by perennial primary sources but hurdles such as the availability of materials for the construction of long-living robust electrochemical cells (membranes electrodes) must be abated for a substantial scale-up with respect to existing capacity. The actual political situation makes difficult to rely on external supplies. Supposed that cheap hydrogen will be available its direct use in energy production can be confronted with the indirect use that implies the hydrogenation of CO2 into fuels (E-fuels) an almost ready technology. The two strategies have both pros and cons and can be integrated. E-Fuels can also represent an option for storing the energy of intermittent sources. In the medium-long term the direct co-processing of CO2 and water via co-electrolysis may avoid the production/transport/ use of hydrogen. In the long term coprocessing of CO2 and H2O to fuels via photochemical or photoelectrochemical processes can become a strategic technology.
Monitored Data and Social Perceptions Analysis of Battery Electric and Hydrogen Fuelled Buses in Urban and Suburban Areas
Jul 2023
Publication
Electrification of the transportation sector is one of the main drivers in the decarbonization of energy and mobility systems and it is a way to ensure security of energy supply. Public bus fleets can assist in achieving fast reduction of CO2 emissions. This article provides an analysis of a unique real-world dataset to support decision makers in the decarbonization of public fleets and interlink it with the social acceptance of drivers. Data was collected from 21 fuel cell and electric buses. The tank-to-wheel efficiency results of fuel cell electric buses (FCEB) are much lower than that of battery electric buses (BEB) and there is a higher variation in consumption for BEBs compared to FCEBs. Both technologies permit a strong reduction in CO2 emissions compared to conventional buses. There is a high level of acceptance of drivers which are likely to support the transition towards zero-emission buses introduced by the management.
Towards Suitable Practices for the Integration of Social Life Cycle Assessment into the Ecodesign Framework of Hydrogen-related Products
Feb 2024
Publication
The hydrogen sector is envisaged as one of the key enablers of the energy transition that the European Union is facing to accomplish its decarbonization targets. However regarding the technologies that enable the deployment of a hydrogen economy a growing concern exists about potential burden-shifting across sustainability dimensions. In this sense social life cycle assessment arises as a promising methodology to evaluate the social implications of hydrogen technologies along their supply chains. In the context of the European projects eGHOST and SH2E this study seeks to advance on key methodological aspects of social life cycle assessment when it comes to guiding the ecodesign of two relevant hydrogen-related products: a 5 kW solid oxide electrolysis cell stack for hydrogen production and a 48 kW proton-exchange membrane fuel cell stack for mobility applications. Based on the social life cycle assessment results for both case studies under alternative approaches the definition of a product-specific supply chain making use of appropriate cut-off criteria was found to be the preferable choice when addressing system boundaries definition. Moreover performing calculations according to the activity variable approach was found to provide valuable results in terms of social hotspots identification to support subsequent decision-making processes on ecodesign while the direct calculation approach is foreseen as a complement to ease the interpretation of social scores. It is concluded that advancements in the formalization of such suitable practices could foster the integration of social metrics into the sustainable-by-design framework of hydrogen-related products.
How "Clean" is the Hydrogen Economy? Tracing the Connections Between Hydrogen and Fossil Fuels
Feb 2024
Publication
Hydrogen is experiencing a resurgence in energy transition debates. Before representing a solution however the existing hydrogen economy is still a climate change headache: over 99 % of production depends on fossil fuels oil refining accounts for 42 % of demand and its transportation is intertwined with fossil infrastructure like natural gas pipelines. This article investigates the path-dependent dynamics shaping the hydrogen economy and its interconnections with the oil and gas industry. It draws on the global production networks (GPN) approach and political economy research to provide a comprehensive review of current and prospective enduses of hydrogen modes of transport networks of industrial actors and state strategies along the major production facilities and holders of intellectual property rights. The results presented in this article suggest that the superimposition of private agendas may jeopardise the viability of future energy systems and requires counterbalancing forces to override the negative consequences of path-dependent energy transitions.
Shorter Message, Stronger Framing Increases Societal Acceptance for Hydrogen
Feb 2024
Publication
With the question of ‘can short messages be effective in increasing public support for a complex new technology (hydrogen)?‘ this study uses a representative national survey in Australia to analyze the differences and variations in subjective support for hydrogen in response to four differently framed short messages. The findings of this study show that short messages can increase social acceptance but the effects depend on how strongly the message is framed in terms of its alignment with either an economic or environmental values framework. Furthermore the effects depend on the social and cultural context of the receiver of the message.
Stakeholder Perspectives on the Scale-up of Green Hydrogen and Electrolyzers
Nov 2023
Publication
Green hydrogen is a promising alternative to fossil fuels. However current production capacities for electrolyzers and green hydrogen are not in line with national political goals and projected demand. Considering these issues we conducted semi-structured interviews to determine the narratives of different stakeholders during this transformation as well as challenges and opportunities for the green hydrogen value chain. We interviewed eight experts with different roles along the green hydrogen value chain ranging from producers and consumers of green hydrogen to electrolyzer manufacturers and consultants as well as experts from the political sphere. Most experts see the government as necessary for scale-up by setting national capacity targets policy support and providing subsidies. However the experts also accuse the governments of delaying development through overregulation and long implementation times for regulations. The main challenges that were identified are the current lack of renewable electricity and demand for green hydrogen. Demand for green hydrogen is influenced by supply costs which partly depend on prices for electrolyzers. However one key takeaway of the interviews is the skeptical assessments by the experts on the currently discussed estimates for price reduction potential of electrolyzers. While demand supply and prices are all factors that influence each other they result in feedback loops in investment decisions for the energy and manufacturing industries. A second key takeaway is that according to the experts current investment decisions in new production capacities are not solely dependent on short-term financial gains but also based on expected first mover advantages. These include experience and market share which are seen as factors for opportunities for future financial gains. Summarized the results present several challenges and opportunities for green hydrogen and electrolyzers and how to address them effectively. These insights contribute to a deeper understanding of the dynamics of the emerging green hydrogen value chain.
The Effects of Hydrogen Research and Innovation on International Hydrogen Trade
Feb 2024
Publication
Climate change and the pressure to decarbonize as well as energy security concerns have drawn the attention of policymakers and the industry to hydrogen energy. To advance the hydrogen economy at a global scale research and innovation progress is of significant importance among others. However previous studies have provided only limited quantitative evidence of the effects of research and innovation on the formation of a global hydrogen market. Instead they postulate rather than empirically support this relationship. Therefore this study analyzes the effects of research and innovation measured by scientific publications patents and standards on bilateral hydrogen trade flows for 32 countries between 1995 and 2019 in a gravity model of trade using regression analyses and Poisson Pseudo Maximum Likelihood (PPML) estimation. The main results of the PPML estimation show that research and innovation progress is indeed associated with increased trade especially with patenting and (international) standardization enhancing hydrogen export volumes. As policy implications we derive that increased public R&D funding can help increase the competitiveness of hydrogen energy and boost market growth along with infrastructure support and harmonized standards and regulations.
The Cost Dynamics of Hydrogen Supply in Future Energy systems - A Techno-economic Study
Nov 2022
Publication
This work aims to investigate the time-resolved cost of electrolytic hydrogen in a future climate-neutral electricity system with high shares of variable renewable electricity generation in which hydrogen is used in the industry and transport sectors as well as for time-shifting electricity generation. The work applies a techno-economic optimization model which incorporates both exogenous (industry and transport) and endogenous (time-shifting of electricity generation) hydrogen demands to elucidate the parameters that affect the cost of hydrogen. The results highlight that several parameters influence the cost of hydrogen. The strongest influential parameter is the cost of electricity. Also important are cost-optimal dimensioning of the electrolyzer and hydrogen storage capacities as these capacities during certain periods limit hydrogen production thereby setting the marginal cost of hydrogen. Another decisive factor is the nature of the hydrogen demand whereby flexibility in the hydrogen demand can reduce the cost of supplying hydrogen given that the demand can be shifted in time. In addition the modeling shows that time-shifting electricity generation via hydrogen production with subsequent reconversion back to electricity plays an important in the climate-neutral electricity system investigated decreasing the average electricity cost by 2%–16%. Furthermore as expected the results show that the cost of hydrogen from an off-grid island-mode-operated industry is more expensive than the cost of hydrogen from all scenarios with a fully interconnected electricity system.
Hydrogen as a Transition Tool in a Fossil Fuel Resource Region: Taking China’s Coal Capital Shanxi as an Example
Aug 2023
Publication
Because of the pressure to meet carbon neutrality targets carbon reduction has become a challenge for fossil fuel resource-based regions. Even though China has become the most active country in carbon reduction its extensive energy supply and security demand make it difficult to turn away from its dependence on coal-based fossil energy. This paper analyzes the Chinese coal capital—Shanxi Province—to determine whether the green low-carbon energy transition should be focused on coal resource areas. In these locations the selection and effect of transition tools are key to ensuring that China meets its carbon reduction goal. Due to the time window of clean coal utilization the pressure of local governments and the survival demands of local high energy consuming enterprises Shanxi Province chose hydrogen as its important transition tool. A path for developing hydrogen resources has been established through lobbying and corporative influence on local and provincial governments. Based on such policy guidance Shanxi has realized hydrogen applications in large-scale industrial parks regional public transport and the iron and steel industry. This paper distinguishes between the development strategies of gray and green hydrogen. It shows that hydrogen can be an effective development model for resource-based regions as it balances economic stability and energy transition.
Towards a Unified Theory of Domestic Hydrogen Acceptance: An Integrative, Comparative Review
Dec 2023
Publication
Hydrogen energy technologies are envisioned to play a critical supporting role in global decarbonisation. While low-carbon hydrogen is primarily targeted for reducing industrial emissions alongside decarbonising parts of the transport sector environmental benefits could also be achieved in the residential context. Presently gasdependent countries such as Japan and the United Kingdom are assessing the feasibility of deploying hydrogen home appliances as part of their national energy strategies. However prospects for the transition will hinge on consumer acceptance alongside an array of other socio-technical factors. To support potential ambitions for large-scale and sustained technology diffusion this study advances a Unified Theory of Domestic Hydrogen Acceptance. Through an integrative comparative literature review targeting hydrogen and domestic energy studies the paper proposes a novel Domestic Hydrogen Acceptance Model (DHAM) which accounts for the cognitive and emotional dimensions of human perceptions. Through this dual interplay the proposed framework can increase the predictive power of hydrogen acceptance models.
Decarbonization of Former Lignite Regions with Renewable Hydrogen: The Western Macedonia Case
Oct 2023
Publication
For lignite intense regions such as the case of Western Macedonia (WM) the production and utilization of green hydrogen is one of the most viable ways to achieve near zero emissions in sectors like transport chemicals heat and energy production synthetic fuels etc. However the implementation of each technology that is available to a respective sector differs significantly in terms of readiness and the current installation scale of each technology. The goal of this study is the provision of a transition roadmap for a decarbonized future for the WM region through utilizing green hydrogen. The technologies which can take part in this transition are presented along with the implementation purpose of each technology and the reasonable extension that each technology could be adopted in the present context. The WM region’s limited capacity for green hydrogen production leads to certain integration scenarios with regards to the required hydrogen electrolyzer capacities and required power whereas an environmental assessment is also presented for each scenario.
Macroeconomic Analysis of a New Green Hydrogen Industry using Input-output Analysis: The Case of Switzerland
Sep 2023
Publication
Hydrogen is receiving increasing attention to decarbonize hard-to-abate sectors such as carbon intensive industries and long-distance transport with the ultimate goal of reducing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions to net-zero. However limited knowledge exists so far on the socio-economic and environmental impacts for countries moving towards green hydrogen. Here we analyse the macroeconomic impacts both direct and indirect in terms of GDP growth employment generation and GHG emissions of green hydrogen production in Switzerland. The results are first presented in gross terms for the construction and operation of a new green hydrogen industry considering that all the produced hydrogen is allocated to passenger cars (final demand). We find that for each kg of green hydrogen produced the operational phase creates 6.0 5.9 and 9.5 times more GDP employment and GHG emissions respectively compared to the construction phase (all values in gross terms). Additionally the net impacts are calculated by assuming replacement of diesel by green hydrogen as fuel for passenger cars. We find that green hydrogen contributes to a higher GDP and employment compared to diesel while reducing GHG emissions. For instance in all the three cases namely ‘Equal Cost’ ‘Equal Energy’ and ‘Equal Service’ we find that a green hydrogen industry generates around 106% 28% and 45% higher GDP respectively; 163% 43% and 65% more full-time equivalent jobs respectively; and finally 45% 18% and 29% lower GHG emissions respectively compared to diesel and other industries. Finally the methodology developed in this study can be extended to other countries using country-specific data.
Future Energy Scenarios 2022
Jul 2022
Publication
Future Energy Scenarios (FES) represent a range of different credible ways to decarbonise our energy system as we strive towards the 2050 target.<br/>We’re less than 30 years away from the Net Zero deadline which isn’t long when you consider investment cycles for gas networks electricity transmission lines and domestic heating systems.<br/>FES has an important role to play in stimulating debate and helping to shape the energy system of the future.
Optimal RES Integration for Matching the Italian Hydrogen Strategy Requirements
Oct 2023
Publication
In light of the Italian Hydrogen Roadmap goals the 2030 national RES installation targets need to be redefined. This work aims to propose a more appropriate RES installation deployment on national scale by matching the electrolysers capacity and the green hydrogen production goals. The adopted approach envisages the power-to-gas value chain priority for the green hydrogen production as a means of balancing system. Thus the 2030 Italian energy system has been modelled and several RES installation scenarios have been simulated via EnergyPLAN software. The simulation outputs have been integrated with a breakdown model for the overgeneration RES share detection in compliance with the PV dispatching priority of the Italian system. Therefore the best installation solutions have been detected via multi-objective optimization model based on the green hydrogen production additional installation cost critical energy excess along with the Levelized Cost of Hydrogen (LCOH). Higher wind technology installations provide more competitive energy and hydrogen costs. The most suitable scenarios show that the optimal LCOH and hydrogen production values respectively equal to 3.6 €/kg and 223 ktonH2 arise from additional PV/wind installations of 35 GW on top of the national targets.
Impact of International Transportation Chains on Cost of Green E-hydrogen: Global Cost of Hydrogen and Consequences for Germany and Finland
Jun 2023
Publication
Widely available and low-cost solar photovoltaics and wind power can enable production of renewable electricity-based hydrogen at many locations throughout the world. Hydrogen is expected to emerge as an important energy carrier constituting some of the final energy demand; however its most important role will be as feedstock for further processing to e-fuels e-chemicals and e-steel. Apart from meeting their own hydrogen demand countries may have opportunities to export hydrogen to countries with area limitations or higher production costs. This paper assesses the feasibility of e-hydrogen imports to Germany and Finland from two case regions with a high availability of low-cost renewable electricity Chile and Morocco in comparison to domestic supply. Special attention is paid to the transport infrastructure which has a crucial impact on the economic viability of imports via two routes shipping and pipelines. This study has found that despite lower e-hydrogen production costs in Morocco and Chile compared to Germany and Finland additional transportation costs make imports of e-hydrogen economically unattractive. In early 2020s imported fuel costs are 39–79% and 34–100% higher than e-hydrogen produced in Germany and Finland respectively. In 2050 imported e-hydrogen is projected to be 39–70% more expensive than locally produced e-hydrogen in Germany and 43–54% in the case of Finland. e-Hydrogen may become a fuel that is mostly produced domestically and may be feasible for imports only in specific locations. Local e-hydrogen production may also lower dependence on imports enhance energy security and add jobs.
How Would Structural Change in Electricity and Hydrogen End Use Impact Low-Carbon Transition of an Energy System? A Case Study of China
Feb 2024
Publication
Driven by global targets to reduce greenhouse gas emissions energy systems are expected to undergo fundamental changes. In light of carbon neutrality policies China is expected to significantly increase the proportion of hydrogen and electricity in its energy system in the future. Nevertheless the future trajectory remains shrouded in uncertainty. To explore the potential ramifications of varying growth scenarios pertaining to hydrogen and electricity on the energy landscape this study employs a meticulously designed bottom-up model. Through comprehensive scenario calculations the research aims to unravel the implications of such expansions and provide a nuanced analysis of their effects on the energy system. Results show that with an increase in electrification rates cumulative carbon dioxide emissions over a certain planning horizon could be reduced at the price of increased unit reduction costs. By increasing the share of end-use electricity and hydrogen from 71% to 80% in 2060 the unit carbon reduction cost will rise by 17%. Increasing shares of hydrogen could shorten the carbon emission peak time by approximately five years but it also brings an increase in peak shaving demand.
Analysis of the Levelized Cost of Renewable Hydrogen in Austria
Mar 2023
Publication
Austria is committed to the net-zero climate goal along with the European Union. This requires all sectors to be decarbonized. Hereby hydrogen plays a vital role as stated in the national hydrogen strategy. A report commissioned by the Austrian government predicts a minimum hydrogen demand of 16 TWh per year in Austria in 2040. Besides hydrogen imports domestic production can ensure supply. Hence this study analyses the levelized cost of hydrogen for an off-grid production plant including a proton exchange membrane electrolyzer wind power and solar photovoltaics in Austria. In the first step the capacity factors of the renewable electricity sources are determined by conducting a geographic information system analysis. Secondly the levelized cost of electricity for wind power and solarphotovoltaics plants in Austria is calculated. Thirdly the most cost-efficient portfolio of wind power and solar photovoltaics plants is determined using electricity generation profiles with a 10-min granularity. The modelled system variants differ among location capacity factors of the renewable electricity sources and the full load hours of the electrolyzer. Finally selected variables are tested for their sensitivities. With the applied model the hydrogen production cost for decentralized production plants can be calculated for any specific location. The levelized cost of hydrogen estimates range from 3.08 EUR/kg to 13.12 EUR/kg of hydrogen whereas it was found that the costs are most sensitive to the capacity factors of the renewable electricity sources and the full load hours of the electrolyzer. The novelty of the paper stems from the model applied that calculates the levelized cost of renewable hydrogen in an off-grid hydrogen production system. The model finds a cost-efficient portfolio of directly coupled wind power and solar photovoltaics systems for 80 different variants in an Austria-specific context.
Addressing Environmental Challenges: The Role of Hydrogen Technologies in a Sustainable Future
Dec 2023
Publication
Energy and environmental issues are of great importance in the present era. The transition to renewable energy sources necessitates technological political and behavioral transformations. Hydrogen is a promising solution and many countries are investing in the hydrogen economy. Global demand for hydrogen is expected to reach 120 million tonnes by 2024. The incorporation of hydrogen for efficient energy transport and storage and its integration into the transport sector are crucial measures. However to fully develop a hydrogen-based economy the sustainability and safety of hydrogen in all its applications must be ensured. This work describes and compares different technologies for hydrogen production storage and utilization (especially in fuel cell applications) with focus on the research activities under study at SaRAH group of the University of Naples Federico II. More precisely the focus is on the production of hydrogen from bio-alcohols and its storage in formate solutions produced from renewable sources such as biomass or carbon dioxide. In addition the use of materials inspired by nature including biowaste as feedstock to produce porous electrodes for fuel cell applications is presented. We hope that this review can be useful to stimulate more focused and fruitful research in this area and that it can open new avenues for the development of sustainable hydrogen technologies.
Future Energy Scenarios 2020
Jul 2020
Publication
Our Future Energy Scenarios (FES) outline four different credible pathways for the future of energy over the next 30 years. Based on input from over 600 experts the report looks at the energy needed in Britain across electricity and gas - examining where it could come from how it needs to change and what this means for consumers society and the energy system itself.
Pathways to the Hydrogen Economy: A Multidimensional Analysis of the Technological Innovation Systems of Germany and South Korea
Aug 2023
Publication
The global trend towards decarbonization and the demand for energy security have put hydrogen energy into the spotlight of industry politics and societies. Numerous governments worldwide are adopting policies and strategies to facilitate the transition towards hydrogen-based economies. To assess the determinants of such transition this study presents a comparative analysis of the technological innovation systems (TISs) for hydrogen technologies in Germany and South Korea both recognized as global front-runners in advancing and implementing hydrogen-based solutions. By providing a multi-dimensional assessment of pathways to the hydrogen economy our analysis introduces two novel and crucial elements to the TIS analysis: (i) We integrate the concept of ‘quality infrastructure’ given the relevance of safety and quality assurance for technology adoption and social acceptance and (ii) we emphasize the social perspective within the hydrogen TIS. To this end we conducted 24 semi-structured expert interviews applying qualitative open coding to analyze the data. Our results indicate that the hydrogen TISs in both countries have undergone significant developments across various dimensions. However several barriers still hinder the further realization of a hydrogen economy. Based on our findings we propose policy implications that can facilitate informed policy decisions for a successful hydrogen transition.
The Role of Hydrogen for a Greenhouse Gas-neutral Germany by 2045
May 2023
Publication
This paper aims to provide a holistic analysis of the role of hydrogen for achieving greenhouse gas neutrality in Germany. For that purpose we apply an integrated energy system model which includes all demand sectors of the German energy system and optimizes the transformation pathway from today's energy system to a future cost-optimal energy system. We show that 412 TWh of hydrogen are needed in the year 2045 mostly in the industry and transport sector. Particularly the use of about 267 TWh of hydrogen in industry is essential as there are no cost-effective alternatives for the required emission reduction in the chemical industry or in steel production. Furthermore we illustrate that the German hydrogen supply in the year 2045 requires both an expansion of domestic electrolyzer capacity to 71 GWH2 and hydrogen imports from other European countries and Northern Africa of about 196 TWh. Moreover flexible operation of electrolyzers is cost-optimal and crucial for balancing the intermittent nature of volatile renewable energy sources. Additionally a conducted sensitivity analysis shows that full domestic hydrogen supply in Germany is possible but requires an electrolyzer capacity of 111 GWH2.
Risk Perception of an Emergent Technology: The Case of Hydrogen Energy
Jan 2006
Publication
Although hydrogen has been used in industry for many years as a chemical commodity its use as a fuel or energy carrier is relatively new and expert knowledge about its associated risks is neither complete nor consensual. Public awareness of hydrogen energy and attitudes towards a future hydrogen economy are yet to be systematically investigated. This paper opens by discussing alternative conceptualisations of risk then focuses on issues surrounding the use of emerging technologies based on hydrogen energy. It summarises expert assessments of risks associated with hydrogen. It goes on to review debates about public perceptions of risk and in doing so makes comparisons with public perceptions of other emergent technologies—Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS) Genetically Modified Organisms and Food (GM) and Nanotechnology (NT)—for which there is considerable scientific uncertainty and relatively little public awareness. The paper finally examines arguments about public engagement and "upstream" consultation in the development of new technologies. It is argued that scientific and technological uncertainties are perceived in varying ways and different stakeholders and different publics focus on different aspects or types of risk. Attempting to move public consultation further "upstream" may not avoid this because the framing of risks and benefits is necessarily embedded in a cultural and ideological context and is subject to change as experience of the emergent technology unfolds.
U.S. National Clean Hydrogen Strategy and Roadmap
Jun 2023
Publication
The U.S. National Clean Hydrogen Strategy and Roadmap explores opportunities for clean hydrogen to contribute to national decarbonization goals across multiple sectors of the economy. It provides a snapshot of hydrogen production transport storage and use in the United States today and presents a strategic framework for achieving large-scale production and use of clean hydrogen examining scenarios for 2030 2040 and 2050.
The Strategy and Roadmap also identifies needs for collaboration among federal government agencies industry academia national laboratories state local and Tribal communities environmental and justice communities labor unions and numerous stakeholder groups to accelerate progress and market liftoff. This roadmap establishes concrete targets market-driven metrics and tangible actions to measure success across sectors.
The Strategy and Roadmap responds to legislative language set forth in section 40314 of the Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act (Public Law 117-58) also known as the Bipartisan Infrastructure Law (BIL). This document was posted for in draft form for public comment in September 2022 and the final version of the report was informed by stakeholder feedback further analysis on market liftoff as well as engagement across several federal agencies and the White House Climate Policy Office. There will also be future opportunities for stakeholder feedback as the report will be updated at least every three years as required by the BIL.
The report can be found on their website.
The Strategy and Roadmap also identifies needs for collaboration among federal government agencies industry academia national laboratories state local and Tribal communities environmental and justice communities labor unions and numerous stakeholder groups to accelerate progress and market liftoff. This roadmap establishes concrete targets market-driven metrics and tangible actions to measure success across sectors.
The Strategy and Roadmap responds to legislative language set forth in section 40314 of the Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act (Public Law 117-58) also known as the Bipartisan Infrastructure Law (BIL). This document was posted for in draft form for public comment in September 2022 and the final version of the report was informed by stakeholder feedback further analysis on market liftoff as well as engagement across several federal agencies and the White House Climate Policy Office. There will also be future opportunities for stakeholder feedback as the report will be updated at least every three years as required by the BIL.
The report can be found on their website.
Green Hydrogen Credit Subsidized Renewable Energy-hydrogen Business Models for Achieving the Carbon Netural Future
Feb 2024
Publication
The global resurgence of hydrogen as a clean energy source particularly green hydrogen derived from renewable energy is pivotal for achieving a carbon-neutral future. However scalability poses a significant challenge. This research proposes innovative business models leveraging the low-emission property of green hydrogen to reduce its financial costs thereby fostering its widespread adoption. Key components of the business workflow are elaborated mathematical formulations of market parameters are derived and case studies are presented to demonstrate the feasibility and efficiency of these models. Results demonstrate that the substantial costs associated with the current hydrogen industry can be effectively subsidized via the implementation of proposed business models. When the carbon emission price falls within the range of approximately 86–105 USD/ton free access to hydrogen becomes a viable option for end-users. This highlights the significance and promising potential of the proposed business models within the green hydrogen credit framework.
Enabling or Requiring Hydrogen-ready Industrial Boiler Equipment: Call for Evidence, Summary of Responses
Dec 2022
Publication
On 20 December 2021 the Department for Business Energy and Industrial Strategy (BEIS) launched a Call for Evidence (CfE) on enabling or requiring hydrogen-ready industrial boiler equipment. The aim was to gather evidence from a broad range of UK manufacturers industrial end-users supply chain participants and other experts to enable the development of proposals. The CfE was open for 12 weeks closing on 14 March 2022. The CfE followed the publication of the UK Hydrogen Strategy on 17 August 2021. In the Strategy government committed to run a CfE on hydrogen-ready industrial equipment by theend of 2022. The published CfE focussed on industrial boilers due to their widespread use and because BEIS analysis indicates a significant proportion of the demand for hydrogen in industry will come from this equipment category. Furthermore the technology required for hydrogen boilers is relatively advanced and more standardised than for other types of industrial<br/>equipment. For these reasons industrial boiler equipment presents a good test case for hydrogen-ready industrial equipment more broadly.<br/>The CfE contained the following three sections:<br/>• The opportunity for hydrogen-ready industrial boilers<br/>• The role for government to support hydrogen-ready industrial boiler equipment<br/>• The role of the supply chain and economic opportunities for the UK<br/>Respondents were asked to support their answers with evidence relating to their business product or sector published literature studies or to their broader expertise. To raise awareness of the CfE BEIS officials held two online webinars on 1 February 2022 and 3 February 2022. These were open to boiler manufacturers industrial end-users supply chain participants trade associations professional bodies and any other person(s) with an interest in the area.<br/>To build on evidence gathered through the CfE BEIS commissioned an independent study from Arup and Kiwa Gastec to further examine whether government should enable or require hydrogen-ready industrial boiler equipment. This study investigated the following topics:<br/>• definitions of hydrogen-readiness for industrial boilers<br/>• comparisons of the cost and resource requirement to install and convert hydrogen-ready industrial boiler equipment<br/>• industrial boiler supply chain capacity for conversion to hydrogen<br/>• estimates of the UK industrial boiler population<br/>The final report for this study has been published alongside the government response to the call for evidence. The conclusions and recommendations of that report do not necessarily represent the view of BEIS.
Clean Hydrogen Roadmap: Is Greater Realism Leading to more Credible Paths Forward?
Sep 2023
Publication
"The Oxford Institute for Energy Studies started researching the role of hydrogen in the energy transition in 2020. Since then the interest in hydrogen has continued to grow globally across the energy industry. A key research question has been the extent to which clean hydrogen can be scaled up at reasonable cost and whether it can play a significant role in the global energy system. In April 2022 OIES launched a new Hydrogen Research Programme under the overarching theme of ’building business cases for a hydrogen economy’. This overarching theme was selected based on the observation that most clean hydrogen developments to date had been relatively small-scale pilot or demonstration projects typically funded by government grants or subsidies. For clean hydrogen to play a significant role there will need to be business cases developed in order to attract the many hundreds of billions of dollars of investment required most of which will need to come from the private sector albeit ultimately underpinned by government-backed decarbonisation policies. Just over a year has passed since the start of the Hydrogen Research Programme and the intention of this paper is to pull together key themes which have emerged from the research so far and which can form a useful framework for further research both by OIES and others.<br/>The six key themes in this paper listed below are intended to create a framework to at least start to address the challenges:<br/>Hydrogen is in competition with other decarbonisation alternatives.<br/>The business case for clean hydrogen relies on government policy to drive decarbonisation.<br/>It is essential to understand emissions associated with potential hydrogen investments.<br/>Hydrogen investments need to consider the full value chain and its geopolitics.<br/>Transport of hydrogen is expensive and so should be minimised.<br/>Storage of hydrogen is an essential part of the value chain and requires more focus.
Industrial Boilers: Study to Develop Cost and Stock Assumptions for Options to Enable or Require Hydrogen-ready Industrial Boilers
Dec 2022
Publication
This study aims to help the Department for Business Energy and Industrial Strategy (BEIS) determine whether the government should intervene to enable or require hydrogen-ready industrial boiler equipment. It will do this based on information from existing literature along with qualitative and quantitative information from stakeholder engagement. The study draws on evidence gathered through BEIS’ Call for Evidence (CfE) on hydrogen-ready industrial boilers. The assessment will advance the overall understanding of hydrogen-ready industrial boilers based on four outputs: definitions of hydrogen-readiness comparisons of the cost and resource requirement to install and convert hydrogen-ready industrial boiler equipment supply chain capacity for conversion to hydrogen and estimates of the UK industrial boiler population.
Modern Hydrogen Technologies in the Face of Climate Change—Analysis of Strategy and Development in Polish Conditions
Aug 2023
Publication
The energy production market based on hydrogen technologies is an innovative solution that will allow the industry to achieve climate neutrality in the future in Poland and in the world. The paper presents the idea of using hydrogen as a modern energy carrier and devices that in cooperation with renewable energy sources produce the so-called green hydrogen and the applicable legal acts that allow for the implementation of the new technology were analyzed. Energy transformation is inevitable and according to reports on good practices in European Union countries hydrogen and the hydrogen value chain (production transport and transmission storage use in transport and energy) have wide potential. Thanks to joint projects and subsidies from the EU initiatives supporting hydrogen technologies are created such as hydrogen clusters and hydrogen valleys and EU and national strategic programs set the main goals. Poland is one of the leaders in hydrogen production both in the world and in Europe. Domestic tycoons from the energy refining and chemical industries are involved in the projects. Eight hydrogen valleys that have recently been created in Poland successfully implement the assumptions of the “Polish Hydrogen Strategy until 2030 with a perspective until 2040” and “Energy Policy of Poland until 2040” which are in line with the assumptions of the most important legal acts of the EU including the European Union’s energy and climate policy the Green Deal and the Fit for 55 Package. The review of the analysis of the development of hydrogen technologies in Poland shows that Poland does not differ from other European countries. As part of the assumptions of the European Hydrogen Strategy and the trend related to the management of energy surpluses electrolyzers with a capacity of at least 6 GW will be installed in Poland in 2020–2024. It is also assumed that in the next phase planned for 2025–2030 hydrogen will be a carrier in the energy system in Poland. Poland as a member of the EU is the creator of documents that take into account the assumptions of the European Union Commission and systematically implement the assumed goals. The strategy of activities supporting the development of hydrogen technologies in Poland and the value chain includes very extensive activities related to among others obtaining hydrogen using hydrogen in transport energy and industry developing human resources for the new economy supporting the activities of hydrogen valley stakeholders building hydrogen refueling stations and cooperation among Poland Slovakia and the Czech Republic as part of the HydrogenEagle project.
Decarbonisation of Heat and the Role of ‘Green Gas’ in the United Kingdom
May 2018
Publication
This paper looks at the possible role of ‘green gas’ in the decarbonisation of heat in the United Kingdom. The option is under active discussion at the moment because of the UK’s rigorous carbon reduction targets and the growing realisation that there are problems with the ‘default’ option of electrifying heat. Green gas appears to be technically and economically feasible. However as the paper discusses there are major practical and policy obstacles which make it unlikely that the government will commit itself to developing ‘green gas’ in the foreseeable future.
What Does the Public Know About Technological Solutions for Achieving Carbon Neutrality? Citizens' Knowledge of Energy Transition and the Role of Media
Aug 2023
Publication
The present study explores the relation between media use and knowledge in the context of the energy transition. To identify relevant knowledge categories we relied on the expertise of an interdisciplinary research team. Based on this expertise we identified awareness-knowledge of changes in the energy system and principles-knowledge of hydrogen as important knowledge categories. With data obtained from a nationwide online survey of the German-speaking population (n = 2025) conducted in August 2021 we examined the level of knowledge concerning both categories in the German population. Furthermore we studied its associations with exposure to journalistic media and direct communication from non-media actors (e.g. scientists). Our results revealed a considerable lack of knowledge for both categories. Considering the media variables we found only weak and in some cases even negative relations with the use of journalistic media or other actors that spread information online. However we found comparably strong associations between both knowledge categories and the control variables of sex education and personal interest. We use these results to open up a general discussion of the role of the media in knowledge acquisition processes.
Coupling Green Hydrogen Production to Community Benefits: A Pathway to Social Acceptance?
Feb 2024
Publication
Hydrogen energy technologies are forecasted to play a critical supporting role in global decarbonisation efforts as reflected by the growth of national hydrogen energy strategies in recent years. Notably the UK government published its Hydrogen Strategy in August 2021 to support decarbonisation targets and energy security ambitions. While establishing techno-economic feasibility for hydrogen energy systems is a prerequisite of the prospective transition social acceptability is also needed to support visions for the ‘hydrogen economy’. However to date societal factors are yet to be embedded into policy prescriptions. Securing social acceptance is especially critical in the context of ‘hydrogen homes’ which entails replacing natural gas boilers and hobs with low-carbon hydrogen appliances. Reflecting the nascency of hydrogen heating and cooking technologies the dynamics of social acceptance are yet to be explored in a comprehensive way. Similarly public perceptions of the hydrogen economy and emerging national strategies remain poorly understood. Given the paucity of conceptual and empirical insights this study develops an integrated acceptance framework and tests its predictive power using partial least squares structural equation modelling. Results highlight the importance of risk perceptions trust dynamics and emotions in shaping consumer perceptions. Foremost prospects for deploying hydrogen homes at scale may rest with coupling renewable-based hydrogen production to local environmental and socio-economic benefits. Policy prescriptions should embed societal factors into the technological pursuit of large-scale sustainable energy solutions to support socially acceptable transition pathways.
Impact of Large-scale Hydrogen Electrification and Retrofitting of Natural Gas Infrastructure on the European Power System
Nov 2023
Publication
In this paper we aim to analyse the impact of hydrogen production decarbonisation and electrification scenarios on the infrastructure development generation mix CO2 emissions and system costs of the European power system considering the retrofit of the natural gas infrastructure. We define a reference scenario for the European power system in 2050 and use scenario variants to obtain additional insights by breaking down the effects of different assumptions. The scenarios were analysed using the European electricity market model COMPETES including a proposed formulation to consider retrofitting existing natural gas networks to transport hydrogen instead of methane. According to the results 60% of the EU’s hydrogen demand is electrified and approximately 30% of the total electricity demand will be to cover that hydrogen demand. The primary source of this electricity would be non-polluting technologies. Moreover hydrogen flexibility significantly increases variable renewable energy investment and production and reduces CO2 emissions. In contrast relying on only electricity transmission increases costs and CO2 emissions emphasising the importance of investing in an H2 network through retrofitting or new pipelines. In conclusion this paper shows that electrifying hydrogen is necessary and cost-effective to achieve the EU’s objective of reducing long-term emissions.
The New Model of Energy Cluster Management and Functioning
Sep 2022
Publication
This article was aimed to answer the question of whether local energy communities have a sufficient energy surplus for storage purposes including hydrogen production. The article presents an innovative approach to current research and a discussion of the concepts of the collective prosumer and virtual prosumer that have been implemented in the legal order and further amended in the law. From this perspective it was of utmost importance to analyze the model of functioning of an energy cluster consisting of energy consumers energy producers and hydrogen storage whose goal is to maximize the obtained benefits assuming the co-operative nature of the relationship. The announced and clear perspective of the planned benefits will provide the cluster members a measurable basis for participation in such an energy community. However the catalogue of benefits will be conditioned by the fulfillment of several requirements related to both the scale of covering energy demand from own sources and the need to store surplus energy. As part of the article the results of analyses together with a functional model based on real data of the local energy community are presented.
Designing a Future-proof Gas and Hydrogen Infrastructure for Europe - A Modelling-based Approach
Jun 2023
Publication
Hydrogen has been at the centre of attention since the EU kicked-off its decarbonization agenda at full speed. Many consider it a silver bullet for the deep decarbonization of technically challenging sectors and industries but it is also an attractive option for the gas industry to retain and future-proof its well-developed infrastructure networks. The modelling methodology presented in this report systematically tests the feasibility and cost of different pipeline transportation methods – blending repurposing and dedicated hydrogen pipelines - under different decarbonization pathways and concludes that blending is not a viable solution and pipeline repurposing can lead to excessive investment outlays in the range of EUR 19–25 bn over the modelled period (2020–2050) for the EU-27.
Technoeconomic Analysis for Green Hydrogen in Terms of Production, Compression, Transportation and Storage Considering the Australian Perspective
Jul 2023
Publication
This current article discusses the technoeconomics (TE) of hydrogen generation transportation compression and storage in the Australian context. The TE analysis is important and a prerequisite for investment decisions. This study selected the Australian context due to its huge potential in green hydrogen but the modelling is applicable to other parts of the world adjusting the price of electricity and other utilities. The hydrogen generation using the most mature alkaline electrolysis (AEL) technique was selected in the current study. The results show that increasing temperature from 50 to 90 ◦C and decreasing pressure from 13 to 5 bar help improve electrolyser performance though pressure has a minor effect. The selected range for performance parameters was based on the fundamental behaviour of water electrolysers supported with literature. The levelised cost of hydrogen (LCH2 ) was calculated for generation compression transportation and storage. However the majority of the LCH2 was for generation which was calculated based on CAPEX OPEX capital recovery factor hydrogen production rate and capacity factor. The LCH2 in 2023 was calculated to be 9.6 USD/kgH2 using a base-case solar electricity price of 65–38 USD/MWh. This LCH2 is expected to decrease to 6.5 and 3.4 USD/kgH2 by 2030 and 2040 respectively. The current LCH2 using wind energy was calculated to be 1.9 USD/kgH2 lower than that of solar-based electricity. The LCH2 using standalone wind electricity was calculated to be USD 5.3 and USD 2.9 in 2030 and 2040 respectively. The LCH2 predicted using a solar and wind mix (SWM) was estimated to be USD 3.2 compared to USD 9.6 and USD 7.7 using standalone solar and wind. The LCH2 under the best case was predicted to be USD 3.9 and USD 2.1 compared to USD 6.5 and USD 3.4 under base-case solar PV in 2030 and 2040 respectively. The best case SWM offers 33% lower LCH2 in 2023 which leads to 37% 39% and 42% lower LCH2 in 2030 2040 and 2050 respectively. The current results are overpredicted especially compared with CSIRO Australia due to the higher assumption of the renewable electricity price. Currently over two-thirds of the cost for the LCH2 is due to the price of electricity (i.e. wind and solar). Modelling suggests an overall reduction in the capital cost of AEL plants by about 50% in the 2030s. Due to the lower capacity factor (effective energy generation over maximum output) of renewable energy especially for solar plants a combined wind- and solar-based electrolysis plant was recommended which can increase the capacity factor by at least 33%. Results also suggest that besides generation at least an additional 1.5 USD/kgH2 for compression transportation and storage is required.
Are Green and Blue Hydrogen Competitive or Complementary? Insights from a Decarbonised European Power System Analysis
Jun 2023
Publication
Hydrogen will be important in decarbonized energy systems. The primary ways to produce low emission hydrogen are from renewable electricity using electrolyzers called green hydrogen and by reforming natural gas and capturing and storing the CO2 known as blue hydrogen. In this study the degrees to which blue and green hydrogen are complementary or competitive are analyzed through a sensitivity analysis on the electrolyzer costs and natural gas price. This analysis is performed on four bases: what is the cost-effective relative share between blue and green hydrogen deployment how their deployment influences the price of hydrogen how the price of CO2 changes with the deployment of these two technologies and whether infrastructure can economically be shared between these two technologies. The results show that the choice of green and blue hydrogen has a tremendous impact where an early deployment of green leads to higher hydrogen costs and CO2 prices in 2030. Allowing for blue hydrogen thus has notable benefits in 2030 giving cheaper hydrogen with smaller wider socioeconomic impacts. In the long term these competitive aspects disappear and green and blue hydrogen can coexist in the European market without negatively influencing one another.
Cost Projection of Global Green Hydrogen Production Scenarios
Nov 2023
Publication
A sustainable future hydrogen economy hinges on the development of green hydrogen and the shift away from grey hydrogen but this is highly reliant on reducing production costs which are currently too high for green hydrogen to be competitive. This study predicts the cost trajectory of alkaline and proton exchange membrane (PEM) electrolyzers based on ongoing research and development (R&D) scale effects and experiential learning consequently influencing the levelized cost of hydrogen (LCOH) projections. Electrolyzer capital costs are estimated to drop to 88 USD/kW for alkaline and 60 USD/kW for PEM under an optimistic scenario by 2050 or 388 USD/kW and 286 USD/kW respectively under a pessimistic scenario with PEM potentially dominating the market. Through a combination of declining electrolyzer costs and a levelized cost of electricity (LCOE) the global LCOH of green hydrogen is projected to fall below 5 USD/kgH2 for solar onshore and offshore wind energy sources under both scenarios by 2030. To facilitate a quicker transition the implementation of financial strategies such as additional revenue streams a hydrogen/carbon credit system and an oxygen one (a minimum retail price of 2 USD/kgO2 ) and regulations such as a carbon tax (minimum 100 USD/tonCO2 for 40 USD/MWh electricity) and a contract-for-difference scheme could be pivotal. These initiatives would act as financial catalysts accelerating the transition to a greener hydrogen economy.
Regional Capabilities and Hydrogen Adoption Barriers
Dec 2023
Publication
Hydrogen is gaining importance to decarbonize the energy system and tackle the climate crisis. This exploratory study analyzes three focus groups with representatives from relevant organizations in a Northern German region that has unique beneficial characteristics for the transition to a hydrogen economy. Based upon this data (1) a category system of innovation adoption barriers for hydrogen technologies is developed (2) decision levels associated with the barriers are identified (3) detailed insights on how decision levels contribute to the adoption barriers are provided and (4) the barriers are evaluated in terms of their importance. Our analysis adds to existing literature by focusing on short-term barriers and exploring relevant decision levels and their associated adoption barriers. Our main results comprise the following: flaws in the funding system complex approval procedures lack of networks and high costs contribute to hydrogen adoption barriers. The (Sub-)State level is relevant for the uptake of the hydrogen economy. Regional entities have leeway to foster the hydrogen transition especially with respect to the distribution infrastructure. Funding policy technological suitability investment and operating costs and the availability of distribution infrastructure and technical components are highly important adoption barriers that alone can impede the transition to a hydrogen economy.
Hydrogen Production, Storage, Utilisation and Environmental Impacts: A Review
Oct 2021
Publication
Dihydrogen (H2) commonly named ‘hydrogen’ is increasingly recognised as a clean and reliable energy vector for decarbonisation and defossilisation by various sectors. The global hydrogen demand is projected to increase from 70 million tonnes in 2019 to 120 million tonnes by 2024. Hydrogen development should also meet the seventh goal of ‘affordable and clean energy’ of the United Nations. Here we review hydrogen production and life cycle analysis hydrogen geological storage and hydrogen utilisation. Hydrogen is produced by water electrolysis steam methane reforming methane pyrolysis and coal gasification. We compare the environmental impact of hydrogen production routes by life cycle analysis. Hydrogen is used in power systems transportation hydrocarbon and ammonia production and metallugical industries. Overall combining electrolysis-generated hydrogen with hydrogen storage in underground porous media such as geological reservoirs and salt caverns is well suited for shifting excess of-peak energy to meet dispatchable on-peak demand.
Towards a Future Hydrogen Supply Chain: A Review of Technologies and Challenges
Feb 2024
Publication
The overuse of fossil fuels has caused a serious energy crisis and environmental pollution. Due to these challenges the search for alternative energy sources that can replace fossil fuels is necessary. Hydrogen is a widely acknowledged future energy carrier because of its nonpolluting properties and high energy density. To realize a hydrogen economy in the future it is essential to construct a comprehensive hydrogen supply chain that can make hydrogen a key energy carrier. This paper reviews the various technologies involved in the hydrogen supply chain encompassing hydrogen production storage transportation and utilization technologies. Then the challenges of constructing a hydrogen supply chain are discussed from techno-economic social and policy perspectives and prospects for the future development of a hydrogen supply chain are presented in light of these challenges.
A Brief on Nano-Based Hydrogen Energy Transition
Sep 2023
Publication
Considering the clean renewable and ecologically friendly characteristics of hydrogen gas as well as its high energy density hydrogen energy is thought to be the most potent contender to locally replace fossil fuels. The creation of a sustainable energy system is currently one of the critical industrial challenges and electrocatalytic hydrogen evolution associated with appropriate safe storage techniques are key strategies to implement systems based on hydrogen technologies. The recent progress made possible through nanotechnology incorporation either in terms of innovative methods of hydrogen storage or production methods is a guarantee of future breakthroughs in energy sustainability. This manuscript addresses concisely and originally the importance of including nanotechnology in both green electroproduction of hydrogen and hydrogen storage in solid media. This work is mainly focused on these issues and eventually intends to change beliefs that hydrogen technologies are being imposed only for reasons of sustainability and not for the intrinsic value of the technology itself. Moreover nanophysics and nano-engineering have the potential to significantly change the paradigm of conventional hydrogen technologies.
Natural Hydrogen in the Energy Transition: Fundamentals, Promise, and Enigmas
Oct 2023
Publication
Beyond its role as an energy vector a growing number of natural hydrogen sources and reservoirs are being discovered all over the globe which could represent a clean energy source. Although the hydrogen amounts in reservoirs are uncertain they could be vast and they could help decarbonize energy-intensive economic sectors and facilitate the energy transition. Natural hydrogen is mainly produced through a geochemical process known as serpentinization which involves the reaction of water with low-silica ferrous minerals. In favorable locations the hydrogen produced can become trapped by impermeable rocks on its way to the atmosphere forming a reservoir. The safe exploitation of numerous natural hydrogen reservoirs seems feasible with current technology and several demonstration plants are being commissioned. Natural hydrogen may show variable composition and require custom separation purification storage and distribution facilities depending on the location and intended use. By investing in research in the mid-term more hydrogen sources could become exploitable and geochemical processes could be artificially stimulated in new locations. In the long term it may be possible to leverage or engineer the interplay between microorganisms and geological substrates to obtain hydrogen and other chemicals in a sustainable manner.
China and Italy’s Energy Development Trajectories: Current Landscapes and Future Cooperation Potential
Feb 2024
Publication
In order to achieve the ambitious goal of “carbon neutrality” countries around the world are striving to develop clean energy. Against this background this paper takes China and Italy as representatives of developing and developed countries to summarize the energy structure composition and development overview of the two countries. The paper analyzes the serious challenges facing the future energy development of both countries and investigates the possibilities of energy cooperation between the two countries taking into account their respective advantages in energy development. By comparing the policies issued by the two governments to encourage clean energy development this paper analyzes the severe challenges faced by the two countries’ energy development in the future and combines their respective energy development advantages to look forward to the possibility of energy cooperation between the two countries in the future. This lays the foundation for China and Italy to build an “Energy Road” after the “Silk Road”.
Modeling the Long-term Evolution of the Italian Power Sector: The Role of Renewable Resources and Energy Storage Facilities
Feb 2024
Publication
The aim of this study is to investigate the long-term planning of the Italian power sector from 2021 to 2050. The key role of photovoltaic and wind technologies in combination with power-to-power systems based on hydrogen and batteries is investigated. An updated version of the OSeMOSYS tool is used which employs a clustering method for the representation of time-varying input data. First the potential of variable renewable energy sources (VRES) is assessed. A sensitivity analysis is also performed on the temporal resolution of the model to determine an adequate trade-off between the computation time and the accuracy of the results. Then a technoeconomic optimization scenario is carried out resulting in a total net present cost of about 233.7 B€. A high penetration of VRES technologies is foreseen by 2050 with a total VRES installed capacity of 272.9 GW (mainly photovoltaic and onshore wind). Batteries are found to be the preferable energy storage solution in the first part of the energy transition while the hydrogen storage starts to be convenient from about the year 2040. Indeed the role of hydrogen storage becomes fundamental as the VRES penetration increases thanks to its cost-effective long-term storage capability. By 2050 74.6 % of electricity generation will be based on VRES which will also enable a significant reduction in CO2 emissions of about 87 %.
Blue Hydrogen and Industrial Base Products: The Future of Fossil Fuel Exporters in a Net-zero World
May 2022
Publication
Is there a place for today’s fossil fuel exporters in a low-carbon future? This study explores trade channels between energy exporters and importers using a novel electricity-hydrogen-steel energy systems model calibrated to Norway a major natural gas producer and Germany a major energy consumer. Under tight emission constraints Norway can supply Germany with electricity (blue) hydrogen or natural gas with re-import of captured CO2. Alternatively it can use hydrogen to produce steel through direct reduction and supply it to the world market an export route not available to other energy carriers due to high transport costs. Although results show that natural gas imports with CO2 capture in Germany is the least-cost solution avoiding local CO2 handling via imports of blue hydrogen (direct or embodied in steel) involves only moderately higher costs. A robust hydrogen demand would allow Norway to profitably export all its natural gas production as blue hydrogen. However diversification into local steel production as one example of easy-to-export industrial base products offers an effective hedge against the possibility of lower European blue hydrogen demand. Looking beyond Europe the findings of this study are also relevant for the world’s largest energy exporters (e.g. OPEC+) and importers (e.g. developing Asia). Thus it is recommended that large hydrocarbon exporters consider a strategic energy export transition to a diversified mix of blue hydrogen and climate-neutral industrial base products.
Conflicts Between Economic and Low-carbon Reorientation Processes: Insights from a Contextual Analysis of Evolving Company Strategies in the United Kingdrom Petrochemical Industry (1970-2021)
Jul 2022
Publication
To situate its low-carbon transition process in longer-term real-world business contexts this article makes a longitudinal analysis of the UK petrochemical industry focusing on changing economic and socio-political environments and company strategies in the last 50 years. Using the Triple Embeddedness Framework the paper identifies two parallel and conflicting reorientation processes in the UK petrochemical industry. The first one which started in the 1970s and is driven by long-standing competitiveness problems led to retrenchment in the 1980s exit of incumbent companies (BP Shell ICI) and the entry of new firms (INEOS SABIC) in the 1990s and 2000s and diversification into upstream fossil fuel production and ethane imports in the 2010s. The second reorientation process which started in the 2010s is driven by climate change considerations and has led petrochemical firms to reluctantly explore low-carbon alternatives. Despite advancing ambitious visions and plans companies are weakly committed to low-carbon reorientation because this is layered on top of and conflicts with the deeper economically-motivated reorientation process. The paper further concludes that the industry's low-carbon plans and visions are partial because they focus more on some innovations (hydrogen-as-fuel CCS) than on other innovations (recycling bio-feedstocks synthetic feedstocks). Despite exploring alternatives firms also use political resistance strategies to hamper and delay deeper low-carbon reorientation
Hydrogen-Based Energy Systems: Current Technology Development Status, Opportunities and Challenges
Dec 2023
Publication
The use of hydrogen as an energy carrier within the scope of the decarbonisation of the world’s energy production and utilisation is seen by many as an integral part of this endeavour. However the discussion around hydrogen technologies often lacks some perspective on the currently available technologies their Technology Readiness Level (TRL) scope of application and important performance parameters such as energy density or conversion efficiency. This makes it difficult for the policy makers and investors to evaluate the technologies that are most promising. The present study aims to provide help in this respect by assessing the available technologies in which hydrogen is used as an energy carrier including its main challenges needs and opportunities in a scenario in which fossil fuels still dominate global energy sources but in which renewables are expected to assume a progressively vital role in the future. The production of green hydrogen using water electrolysis technologies is described in detail. Various methods of hydrogen storage are referred including underground storage physical storage and material-based storage. Hydrogen transportation technologies are examined taking into account different storage methods volume requirements and transportation distances. Lastly an assessment of well-known technologies for harnessing energy from hydrogen is undertaken including gas turbines reciprocating internal combustion engines and fuel cells. It seems that the many of the technologies assessed have already achieved a satisfactory degree of development such as several solutions for high-pressure hydrogen storage while others still require some maturation such as the still limited life and/or excessive cost of the various fuel cell technologies or the suitable operation of gas turbines and reciprocating internal combustion engines operating with hydrogen. Costs below 200 USD/kWproduced lives above 50 kh and conversion efficiencies approaching 80% are being aimed at green hydrogen production or electricity production from hydrogen fuel cells. Nonetheless notable advances have been achieved in these technologies in recent years. For instance electrolysis with solid oxide cells may now sometimes reach up to 85% efficiency although with a life still in the range of 20 kh. Conversely proton exchange membrane fuel cells (PEMFCs) working as electrolysers are able to sometimes achieve a life in the range of 80 kh with efficiencies up to 68%. Regarding electricity production from hydrogen the maximum efficiencies are slightly lower (72% and 55% respectively). The combination of the energy losses due to hydrogen production compression storage and electricity production yields overall efficiencies that could be as low as 25% although smart applications such as those that can use available process or waste heat could substantially improve the overall energy efficiency figures. Despite the challenges the foreseeable future seems to hold significant potential for hydrogen as a clean energy carrier as the demand for hydrogen continues to grow particularly in transportation building heating and power generation new business prospects emerge. However this should be done with careful regard to the fact that many of these technologies still need to increase their technological readiness level before they become viable options. For this an emphasis needs to be put on research innovation and collaboration among industry academia and policymakers to unlock the full potential of hydrogen as an energy vector in the sustainable economy.
Regime-driven Niches and Institutional Entrepreneurs: Adding Hydrogen to Regional Energy Systems in Germany
Nov 2023
Publication
In recent years production and supply of hydrogen has gained significant attention within the German energy transition. This is due to increasingly urgent pressures to mitigate climate change and geopolitical imperatives to substitute natural gas. Hydrogen is seen as an important cross-sectoral energy carrier serving multiple functions including heat production for industry and households fuel for transportation and energy storage for stabilization of electricity supply. In the context of various funding mechanisms on several administrative levels regional value chains for green hydrogen supply are emerging. To date however few studies analyzing regional hydrogen systems exist. Due to its high projected demand of energy sources for heating industrial processes and mobility Germany appears to be a very relevant research area in this emerging field. Situated within the concept of the multi-level perspective this article examines the way how regional “niches” of green hydrogen evolve and how they are organized. The study takes an evolutionary perspective in analyzing processes of embedding green hydrogen infrastructures in regional energy regimes which entered “re-configuration”-pathways. It argues that the congruence of available resources for renewable electricity established networks of institutional entrepreneurs and access to higher level funding are conditions which put incumbent regime-actors in favorable positions to implement green hydrogen niches. Conversely the embedding of green hydrogen infrastructures in regional energy systems is a case in point of how the attributes of niches in particular technological domains can be used to explain the transition pathway entered by a surrounding energy regime.
Advancing Hydrogen: A Closer Look at Implementation Factors, Current Status and Future Potential
Dec 2023
Publication
This review article provides a comprehensive analysis of the hydrogen landscape outlining the imperative for enhanced hydrogen production implementation and utilisation. It places the question of how to accelerate hydrogen adoption within the broader context of sustainable energy transitions and international commitments to reduce carbon emissions. It discusses influencing factors and policies for best practices in hydrogen energy application. Through an in-depth exploration of key factors affecting hydrogen implementation this study provides insights into the complex interplay of both technical and logistical factors. It also discusses the challenges of planning constructing infrastructure and overcoming geographical constraints in the transition to hydrogen-based energy systems. The drive to achieve net-zero carbon emissions is contingent on accelerating clean hydrogen development with blue and green hydrogen poised to complement traditional fuels. Public–private partnerships are emerging as catalysts for the commercialisation of hydrogen and fuel-cell technologies fostering hydrogen demonstration projects worldwide. The anticipated integration of clean hydrogen into various sectors in the coming years signifies its importance as a complementary energy source although specific applications across industries remain undefined. The paper provides a good reference on the gradual integration of hydrogen into the energy landscape marking a significant step forward toward a cleaner greener future.
Potential Economic Benefits of Carbon Dioxide (CO2) Reduction Due to Renewable Energy and Electrolytic Hydrogen Fuel Deployment Under Current and Long Term Forecasting of the Social Carbon Cost (SCC)
May 2019
Publication
The 2016 Paris Agreement (UNFCCC Authors 2015) is the latest of initiative to create an international consensus on action to reduce GHG emissions. However the challenge of meeting its targets lies mainly in the intimate relationship between GHG emissions and energy production which in turn links to industry and economic growth. The Middle East and North African region (MENA) particularly those nations rich oil and gas (O&G) resources depend on these as a main income source. Persuading the region to cut down on O&G production or reduce its GHG emissions is hugely challenging as it is so vital to its economic strength. In this paper an alternative option is established by creating an economic link between GHG emissions measured as their CO2 equivalent (CO2e) and the earning of profits through the concept of Social Carbon Cost (SCC). The case study is a small coastal city in Libya where 6% of electricity is assumed to be generated from renewable sources. At times when renewable energy (RE) output exceeds the demand for power the surplus is used for powering the production of hydrogen by electrolysis thus storing the energy and creating an emission-free fuel. Two scenarios are tested based on short and long term SCCs. In the short term scenario the amount of fossil fuel energy saved matches the renewable energy produced which equates to the same amount of curtailed O&G production. The O&G-producing region can earn profits in two ways: (1) by cutting down CO2 emissions as a result of a reduction in O&G production and (2) by replacing an amount of fossil fuel with electrolytically-produced hydrogen which creates no CO2 emissions. In the short term scenario the value of SCC saved is nearly 39% and in the long term scenario this rose to 83%.
Socio-economic Aspects of Hydrogen Energy: An Integrative Review
Apr 2023
Publication
Hydrogen can be recognized as the most plausible fuel for promoting a green environment. Worldwide developed and developing countries have established their hydrogen research investment and policy frameworks. This analysis of 610 peer-reviewed journal articles from the last 50 years provides quantitative and impartial insight into the hydrogen economy. By 2030 academics and business professionals believe that hydrogen will complement other renewable energy (RE) sources in the energy revolution. This study conducts an integrative review by employing software such as Bibliometrix R-tool and VOSviewer on socio-economic consequences of hydrogen energy literature derived from the Scopus database. We observed that most research focuses on multidisciplinary concerns such as generation storage transportation application feasibility and policy development. We also present the conceptual framework derived from in-depth literature analysis as well as the interlinkage of concepts themes and aggregate dimensions to highlight research hotspots and emerging patterns. In the future factors such as green hydrogen generation hydrogen permeation and leakage management efficient storage risk assessment studies blending and techno-economic feasibility shall play a critical role in the socio-economic aspects of hydrogen energy research.
A Cost Comparison of Various Hourly-reliable and Net-zero Hydrogen Production Pathways in the United States
Nov 2023
Publication
Hydrogen (H2) as an energy carrier may play a role in various hard-to-abate subsectors but to maximize emission reductions supplied hydrogen must be reliable low-emission and low-cost. Here we build a model that enables direct comparison of the cost of producing net-zero hourly-reliable hydrogen from various pathways. To reach net-zero targets we assume upstream and residual facility emissions are mitigated using negative emission technologies. For the United States (California Texas and New York) model results indicate nextdecade hybrid electricity-based solutions are lower cost ($2.02-$2.88/kg) than fossil-based pathways with natural gas leakage greater than 4% ($2.73-$5.94/ kg). These results also apply to regions outside of the U.S. with a similar climate and electric grid. However when omitting the net-zero emission constraint and considering the U.S. regulatory environment electricity-based production only achieves cost-competitiveness with fossil-based pathways if embodied emissions of electricity inputs are not counted under U.S. Tax Code Section 45V guidance.
Hopes and Fears for a Sustainable Energy Future: Enter the Hydrogen Acceptance Matrix
Feb 2024
Publication
Hydrogen-fuelled technologies for home heating and cooking may provide a low-carbon solution for decarbonising parts of the global housing stock. For the transition to transpire the attitudes and perceptions of consumers must be factored into policy making efforts. However empirical studies are yet to explore potential levels of consumer heterogeneity regarding domestic hydrogen acceptance. In response this study explores a wide spectrum of consumer responses towards the prospect of hydrogen homes. The proposed spectrum is conceptualised in terms of the ‘domestic hydrogen acceptance matrix’ which is examined through a nationally representative online survey conducted in the United Kingdom. The results draw attention to the importance of interest and engagement in environmental issues knowledge and awareness of renewable energy technologies and early adoption potential as key drivers of domestic hydrogen acceptance. Critically strategic measures should be taken to convert hydrogen scepticism and pessimism into hope and optimism by recognising the multidimensional nature of consumer acceptance. To this end resources should be dedicated towards increasing the observability and trialability of hydrogen homes in proximity to industrial clusters and hubs where the stakes for consumer acceptance are highest. Progress towards realising a net-zero society can be supported by early stakeholder engagement with the domestic hydrogen acceptance matrix.
Investigation of a Community-based Clean Energy System Holistically with Renewable and Hydrogen Energy Options for Better Sustainable Development
Jan 2024
Publication
This study develops a novel community-based integrated energy system where hydrogen and a combination of renewable energy sources are considered uniquely for implementation. In this regard three different communities situated in Kenya the United States and Australia are studied for hydrogen production and meeting the energy demands. To provide a variety of energy demands this study combines a multigenerational geothermal plant with a hybrid concentrated solar power and photovoltaic solar plant. Innovations in hydrogen production and renewable energy are essential for reducing carbon emissions. By combining the production of hydrogen with renewable energy sources this system seeks to move away from the reliance on fossil fuels and toward sustainability. The study investigates various research subjects using a variety of methods. The performance of the geothermal source is considered through energetic and exergetic thermodynamic analysis. The software System Advisor Model (SAM) and RETscreen software packages are used to analyze the other sub-systems including Concentrate Solar PV solar and Combined Heat and Power Plant. Australian American and Kenyan communities considered for this study were found to have promising potential for producing hydrogen and electricity from renewable sources. The geothermal output is expected to be 35.83 MW 122.8 MW for space heating 151.9 MW for industrial heating and 64.25 MW for hot water. The overall geothermal energy and exergy efficiencies are reported as 65.15% and 63.54% respectively. The locations considered are expected to have annual solar power generation and hydrogen production capacities of 158MW 237MW 186MW 235 tons 216 tons and 313 tons respectively.
Advancing a Hydrogen Economy in Australia: Public Perceptions and Aspirations
Nov 2023
Publication
Supporters of hydrogen energy urge scaling up technology and reducing costs for competitiveness. This paper explores how hydrogen energy technologies (HET) are perceived by Australia’s general population and considers the way members of the public imagine their role in the implementation of hydrogen energy now and into the future. The study combines a nationally representative survey (n = 403) and semi-structured interviews (n = 30). Results show age and gender relationships with self-reported hydrogen knowledge. Half of the participants obtained hydrogen information from televised media. Strong support was observed for renewable hydrogen while coal (26%) and natural gas (41%) versions had less backing. Participants sought more safety-related information (41% expressed concern). Most felt uncertain about influencing hydrogen decisions and did not necessarily recognise they had agency beyond their front fence. Exploring the link between political identity and agency in energy decision-making is needed with energy democracy a potentially productive direction.
Integration of Renewable-Energy-Based Green Hydrogen into the Energy Future
Sep 2023
Publication
There is a growing interest in green hydrogen with researchers institutions and countries focusing on its development efficiency improvement and cost reduction. This paper explores the concept of green hydrogen and its production process using renewable energy sources in several leading countries including Australia the European Union India Canada China Russia the United States South Korea South Africa Japan and other nations in North Africa. These regions possess significant potential for “green” hydrogen production supporting the transition from fossil fuels to clean energy and promoting environmental sustainability through the electrolysis process a common method of production. The paper also examines the benefits of green hydrogen as a future alternative to fossil fuels highlighting its superior environmental properties with zero net greenhouse gas emissions. Moreover it explores the potential advantages of green hydrogen utilization across various industrial commercial and transportation sectors. The research suggests that green hydrogen can be the fuel of the future when applied correctly in suitable applications with improvements in production and storage techniques as well as enhanced efficiency across multiple domains. Optimization strategies can be employed to maximize efficiency minimize costs and reduce environmental impact in the design and operation of green hydrogen production systems. International cooperation and collaborative efforts are crucial for the development of this technology and the realization of its full benefits.
On the Future Relevance of Green Hydrogen in Europe
Jan 2024
Publication
Hydrogen is among the energy carriers which are most often considered for bringing about a sustainable energy system. Yet so far hydrogen has not delivered as an energy carrier. The core objective of this paper is to provide a comprehensive analysis of the state-of-the-art and the future prospects of green hydrogen in the European energy system from economic energetic and CO2 emissions point-of-view. The analysis shows that there are some increasing opportunities for hydrogen use in industry and in the transport sector when electrification is not possible or is too expensive as well as a storage in the European electricity system. However a hydrogen-based energy system will remain a vision at least over the next decades. The major reason for this is the unfavorable economics mostly due to high investment costs in the whole supply chain. In addition the overall efficiencies in the hydrogen chains are moderate in general. The full environmental benignity of hydrogen as an energy carrier is only provided when renewable energy sources are used for hydrogen production. However in Europe the potentials for green hydrogen are very limited due to the insufficient expansion of renewable electricity generation. For this reason many European countries are considering options for green hydrogen import. The future of hydrogen is highly dependent on the supporting policy framework. To reduce the risk in the investment in hydrogen infrastructure as well as to justify the promotion of green hydrogen it is very important that Europe works out a very clear and realistic long-term implementation strategy.
Modelling Flexibility Requirements in Deep Decarbonisation Scenarios: The Role of Conventional Flexibility and Sector Coupling Options in the European 2050 Energy System
Feb 2024
Publication
Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has reaffirmed the importance of scaling up renewable energy to decarbonise Europe’s economy while rapidly reducing its exposure to foreign fossil fuel suppliers. Therefore the question of sources of flexibility to support a fully decarbonised European energy system is becoming even more critical in light of a renewable-dominated energy system. We developed and used a Pan-European energy system model to systematically assess and quantify sources of flexibility to meet deep decarbonisation targets. The electricity supply sector and electricity-based end-use technologies are crucial in achieving deep decarbonisation. Other low-carbon energy sources like biomethane hydrogen synthetic e-fuels and bioenergy with carbon capture and storage will also play a role. To support a fully decarbonised European energy system by 2050 both temporal and spatial flexibility will be needed. Spatial flexibility achieved through investments in national electricity networks and cross-border interconnections is crucial to support the aggressive roll-out of variable renewable energy sources. Cross-border trade in electricity is expected to increase and in deep decarbonisation scenarios the electricity transmission capacity will be larger than that of natural gas. Hydrogen storage and green hydrogen production will play a key role in providing traditional inter-seasonal flexibility and intraday flexibility will be provided by a combination of electrical energy storage hydrogen-based storage solutions (e.g. liquid H2 and pressurised storage) and hybrid heat pumps. Hydrogen networks and storage will become more critical as we move towards the highest decarbonisation scenario. Still the need for natural gas networks and storage will decrease substantially.
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